The notifications hit our phones that the Utah Jazz were trading Mike Conley to the Minnesota Timberwolves unless the Wolves were looking for extra incentive. Then Twitter suddenly froze on many anxious fans. Next thing you know Conley is a Timberwolf. Utah sent a pair of future second-round picks and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and the Wolves had sent D’Angelo Russell to the Los Angeles Lakers. These reports allowed us to put concepts together. The Timberwolves wanted value back, and they felt intrigued with what Nickeil brings to the table – enough to waive Bryn Forbes to clear the roster spot.
Alexander-Walker’s first four seasons in the NBA have been far from typical. It started off with plenty of buzz. ESPN gave Alexander-Walker five stars out of high school, and he took his talents to Virginia Tech. NAW spent two seasons in Blacksburg. In 33 starts as a freshman, he averaged 10.7 points, 3.8 rebounds, 1.5 rebounds on 44.9/39.2/73.0 shooting splits. As a sophomore, he had 16.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1.9 steals on 47.4/37.4/77.8 shooting splits. Both of his Hokie teams were competitive and made the NCAA Tournament. Nickeil declared for the 2019 NBA Draft, feeling confident with his improved second season.
Here is a glimpse of how Draft Express analyzed his skillset in draft process:
The New Orleans Pelicans rewarded him after his improved second year, selecting him 17th overall. Alexander-Walker immediately got minutes as part of the rotation to begin the season and had a 27-point performance against the Miami Heat in his 12th career game. Overall, though, he had a tough time finding his footing throughout the year. Alexander-Walker finished his rookie campaign with inefficient 36.8/34.6/67.7 splits.
However, he had more time to show his worth in his second year. Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson’s lingering injuries gave NAW 37 games without the pair and took advantage of a more prominent role. Still, it was another tricky developmental year. He scored 11 points per game on 10 field goals attempted on an improved 41.9/34.7/72.7 splits, showing some flashes but still needing time to refine his skills. He takes a bit of shot volume to get his game flowing offensively and has had a streaky three point shot. This has made it tough for him to gain consistency.
Things would only become more tedious for Alexander-Walker in Year 3. New Orleans sent him to the Portland Trail Blazers as part of the CJ McCollum trade after his shot efficiency once again dipped to despite having his highest career usage this season shooting splits of 37.5/31.1/72.2 with 12.3 points per game. Portland would then move him to Utah Jazz a day later in an insignificant cost cutting and roster spot oneing trade. In Utah, Alexander-Walker was in and out of the rotation once again. He saw spot minutes during blowouts and when they suffered injuries, but otherwise didn’t play much on a Jazz team that reached the playoffs.
After Utah traded him to Minnesota, Alexander-Walker is on his third team in four years. Chris Finch will be his sixth head coach. So why could he succeed here? Let me explain.
Nickeil brings an interesting skillset to the Timberwolves backcourt that has had a instability this season thus far. D’Angelo Russell had to adapt to many scenarios, and often had a fluid role in Minnesota. Ultimately, it did not work out as planned. Mike Conley is now the lead point guard and needs time to adapt to his teammates. However, it has to happen quickly because the season is coming to a close, and the Wolves don’t have a reliable backup. Jordan McLaughlin missed two months due to a hamstring injury. Nowell and Anthony Edwards have attempted to play more minutes on the ball, but they have meaningful shortcomings because they’re score-first guards.
Fortunately, NAW fits the build of a combo guard. He has the capability to fit next to other guards with his scoring presence and facilitator abilities. Utah would use him next to their myriad guard options: Jordan Clarkson, Collin Sexton, Malik Beasley, and Talen Horton-Tucker. Alexander-Walker has been shaky off the ball, though, shooting 34% (194 of 540) on catch-and-shoot threes throughout his career.
Luckily, Alexander-Walker has a defensive presence to balance out his developing offensive game. He has a 6’9” wingspan that he can use to his advantage and often follows around secondary guards and wings.
He could potentially find ways to sneak into some of Jaylen Nowell’s minutes because Nowell has had a tough time finding ways to contribute outside of his shot-making. Nowell has often struggled defensively, shooting from beyond the arc, and with lingering turnovers. Nickeil is not an incredible three-point shooting threat, but he still has better counting statistics than Nowell. Over his career, Nowell over is a shaky 31.9% (119 for 372) in C&S and 33.6% (62 for 184) on pull-up threes.
Nowell may offer more rim pressure, but this Wolves team is in dire need of more three-point volume. This year, NAW greatly exceeds Nowell in this department. Then again, the sample size is an issue in comparing the two.
NAW will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason, giving the Wolves more flexibility to retain him. Considering Tim Connelly made this acquisition, he may prioritize him over Nowell, who Gersson Rosas drafted. Both players have experienced peaks and valleys throughout their four seasons, and they’re the most intriguing players coming off the bench from a roster-building standpoint. Ultimately, it was a wise decision to add another guard to this group for overall injury insurance and better backcourt depth. Stll, don’t be shocked if NAW sees some spot minutes to prove his worth.
