Ryen Russillo had a quip on Monday’s Bill Simmons Podcast that will cause Minnesota Timberwolves fans to chuckle and cringe simultaneously. Russillo and Simmons broke down how well Tim Connelly managed the Denver Nuggets. They drafted Nikola Jokić during a Taco Bell commercial and took Jamal Murray seventh overall in 2016 after (checks notes) the Wolves passed on him. In a league where the Toronto Raptors, Los Angeles Lakers, and Milwaukee Bucks fired their coaches after winning championships, Denver has had Michael Malone behind the bench since the 2015-16 season.
So how could this be the same guy who made the Rudy Gobert trade? Russillo described it as watching Michael Jordan play baseball. MJ may have been the best player in the world while wearing a Chicago Bulls jersey. However, he hit just above .200 in Birmingham. Connelly may have meticulously built a homegrown roster in a similar-sized cold-weather city. But the Wolves gave him a $40 million contract, team equity, and new ownership eager to make a splash. The result was a blockbuster trade that Simmons, Russillo, and many fans have maligned.
When the Wolves hired Connelly, it felt like he was the biggest name they could land. He’d had success, but the Nuggets hadn’t been able to get out of the West. Imagine if Minnesota had hired him this week after Denver won a championship. $40 million and equity would seem like the starting offer. Fans would reasonably believe that Connelly had the answers. That he would construct a team through the draft and savvy trades, using the same methods that brought him success a mile above sea level.
The feeling is different now, of course. The Timberwolves traded for Gobert as a complement to Karl-Anthony Towns, who they viewed as their best player. But Anthony Edwards emerged as Minnesota’s star last season, and it makes little sense having two big men clog the lane when he’s driving to the hoop. The Wolves would better serve Edwards by having him play on a team with 3-and-D shooters who can space the floor and complement his defense. Jaden McDaniels emerged as a perfect partner, a defensive-minded forward who added to his offensive game this year. Towns only complements Edwards’ game if he can improve defensively. Gobert would need to provide some offense. They hardly make sense together.
However, Connelly hasn’t given himself many options to improve the roster this year. The Timberwolves have limited cap space, and it will only get tighter under the new collective-bargaining agreement. They can’t trade any picks because they sent as many as the NBA allows to the Utah Jazz to keep McDaniels out of the deal. It’s unwise for him to trade Towns for cents on the dollar; he’s still a dynamic offensive player who can space the floor for Edwards. Barring a team offering fair value for Towns or another surprise trade, the Wolves are running this back and hoping for better results.
The Timberwolves may surprise some of the fanbase and have some success with Towns and Gobert together next year. Towns only played 29 games last year; Gobert missed time early in the season. But it feels far-fetched. Instead of building off a 46-win season in 2021 that re-engaged the fanbase, Connelly and the front office gambled on a two-big experiment. Even if the Wolves eventually move off of Towns and Gobert for cap reasons or otherwise, the Gobert trade forever changed the trajectory of the team. Instead of building methodically through the draft, they went all-in on one one-dimensional player to cover for another.
Under most circumstances, an executive who builds a championship roster would get the benefit of the doubt. Maybe there’s something we’re not seeing with the Big 4 of Edwards, McDaniels, Towns, and Gobert. Perhaps we don’t fully understand the new CBA. It’s possible we can’t see Connelly’s next big move, even if it ends up being obvious. But Occam’s Razor is that the Gobert trade was a new ownership move, something splashy bred from the excitement of owning a team. And those transactions rarely work out.
It’s not like Connelly had perfect ownership or an ideal situation in Denver. The Nuggets are among the many teams Stan Kroenke owns, including Arsenal in the English Premier League, the Los Angeles Rams, and the Colorado Avalanche. The Missouri native is maligned in St. Louis for moving the Rams and rarely went into the luxury tax. The Kroenke ownership group is having a moment with the Rams and Nuggets winning recent championships, but they hardly had universal approval before this current run.
Still, Connelly built the foundation for a contender under their stewardship. Alex Rodriguez and Marc Lore valued him enough to pry him away from Denver with a godfather offer. But it feels different now that he’s been here for a year. He made a blockbuster trade that didn’t pay immediate dividends, dismantling a popular roster in the process. He also didn’t shut down rumors about returning home to manage the Washington Wizards. There is also an underlying concern that Rodriguez and Lore will move the team if they’re unsuccessful and attendance drops. The Connelly paradox is that he seems like the perfect person to lead the Wolves, but it hardly feels that way after his first year running the team.
