There’s no such thing as a loser-proof game in the NFL. But this one may be as close as it gets.
No disrespect to the New Orleans Saints. They’re playing hard for interim coach Darren Rizzi, winners of three of their last five, and they almost completed a stunning comeback over the Washington Commanders last week.
But they are a shell of their former selves, especially on offense. Remember how the season began for New Orleans? Two wins, scoring more than 40 in both, in an explosive start for Derek Carr, Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Taysom Hill. None of them will be in uniform on Monday night at Lambeau.
Rookie Spencer Rattler will make his fourth start, and he’s shown some moxie, but he’s not prepared for what the Packers will throw at him. He’s learning on the fly, holding on to the ball a fraction too long, and getting planted at a high rate: 10 sacks in 140 dropbacks.
He’d love to have that early-season collection of skill position players to work with. Instead, he’ll rely on the backups. Second-year RB Kendre Miller runs hard but is nowhere near the weapon Kamara is, especially as a receiver. His WR room is being led by former Packer Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who has been a touchdown machine lately but didn’t practice all week and is questionable. Beyond him, there’s Cedrick Wilson and Dante Pettis. He’ll also lean on tight ends Foster Moreau and Juwan Johnson. Not exactly a Murderer’s Row.
The Pack’s defense should be able to follow up on what they showed in Seattle. They’ll be without Quay Walker and Javon Bullard, for sure. Jaire Alexander appears on track to play, but you never know. He practiced fully all week, but they listed him as questionable. We know we’ll get a much heavier dose of the reigning NFC Defensive Player of the Week, Edgerrin Cooper, which is a very good thing.
He won’t step into Quay’s role in the middle — that assignment falls on veteran Eric Wilson, who will get the calls and ensure the unit is organized and on the same page. That’s probably too much to put on Cooper’s plate for now, but it’s only a matter of time. He’s also been great on special teams, with two tackles last week. I’m curious whether the added snaps on defense will cause the coaches to keep him off the kickoff team.
The Saints can thank their defense for fueling their return to respectability. Since their bye, when they were 2-7 and made the coaching change, they’re giving up an average of 16.6 points per game and have 18 sacks in those five games, led by veterans Chase Young and Cam Jordan. They still have veterans like Demario Davis and Tyrann Mathieu running around, too.
That defense gives up chunks of yards, though, ranking 30th in yards per game. Their tackling has been awful, giving up an average of 6.3 yards after the catch per reception that season, the fourth-worst in the league. That plays right into Green Bay’s hands, especially for YAC stars Josh Jacobs, Jayden Reed, and Tucker Kraft.
And then there’s Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson, who made spectacular catches last week and are coming in red hot. We may even have a Luke Musgrave sighting. The way Jordan Love has been playing since the bye, New Orleans’ defense doesn’t seem equipped to slow down Green Bay’s red-hot offense.
Love’s been fantastic, but make no mistake: Like last week, Josh Jacobs leads the Pack attack, and he should impose his will on a terrible run defense that gives up just south of five yards per carry. It won’t be frigid on Monday night, but it will be plenty chilly on the latest-in-the-season Monday night game ever played at Lambeau. Combine that with the Saints’ aversion to tackling, and Jacobs will likely be a fantasy hero for millions of managers on Monday night.
Should we worry that the Pack may be looking ahead to what comes next: a rematch with the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on a short week? I don’t think so. This team is well-coached and too young to be concerned about what’s down the road.
We’re getting a late December prime-time game at Lambeau Field between an ascending, healthy Packers team against an indoor team starting a rookie quarterback who won’t have his top five preferred skill position players.
Like I said, basically loser-proof.
Packers 27
Saints 11
