We saw the Green Bay Packers’ season flash before our eyes a week ago as Jordan Love writhed on the not-ready-for-primetime turf at Corinthians Arena in Sao Paulo. Turns out, we got the best-case scenario, with Love likely to miss only two or three games.
Enter Malik Willis, who will try to help the Pack tread water until Love is back. It’s a tall task for the team’s freshly minted backup, who’s probably still trying to get to know his new coworkers, let alone the playbook.
The truth is that if Love was going to miss a couple of games this season, this stretch against AFC South teams is probably the most favorable on the schedule. Nobody wants to start 0-2 or 0-3, of course. But losses outside the NFC don’t hurt as much when it comes to playoff tiebreakers, and the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans feature young, unproven, inconsistent quarterbacks.
If the Packers have a chance to spring an upset in the next couple of weeks, they will likely need to rely on Jeff Hafley’s defense to speed up its timetable and play more consistently than it did in Week 1. With players learning a new scheme and rookies like Javon Bullard and Edgerrin Cooper still getting acclimated, the hope was that the offense could carry the day over the first month until the defense felt comfortable. That luxury is gone; Hafley’s crew must come up huge on Sunday.
It starts with trying to contain Jonathan Taylor, who’s coming off a quiet game and will likely be featured early and often after the Colts saw Saquon Barkley explode in the opener. If Taylor is successful on early downs, it opens up everything for Anthony Richardson. With three throws of over 50 yards, the 22-year-old QB phenom showed last week that he has the rare arm talent to go along with a big frame and dangerous ability with his legs.
But he’s even more raw than Willis, which works in the Pack’s favor. Richardson has fewer than 20 starts since high school and just five in the NFL after a shoulder injury cut his rookie season short. He completed less than 50% of his passes last week, and his accuracy on short and intermediate throws is a work in progress, to put it kindly. Richardson’s playstyle mirrors Jalen Hurts‘, so you have to figure Green Bay’s defensive game plan will look a lot like last week’s: doing everything they can to keep him in the pocket and make him beat them with his arm.
He has a talented stable of young receivers to throw to, led by Michael Pittman, who signed a mega deal in the offseason. Alec Pierce was the big-play guy last week. Rookie second-round pick Adonai Mitchell almost scored twice against Houston. Talented slot receiver Josh Downs is expected back after missing the opener.
The Pack will need Jaire Alexander to bounce back from a mediocre Week 1 performance. We’ll also have to keep an eye on Quay Walker’s availability after he appeared on the injury report Thursday with a groin injury. Regardless, expect to see a lot more of rookie Edgerrin Cooper, who popped on tape with his 10 snaps last week after a dubious start: a missed alignment that allowed Barkley to waltz into the end zone from 11 yards out. That cost him the next several series. However, when the Packers lifted his detention, he tantalized with his playmaking. The team has also said rookie safety Evan Williams will get some run this week after not seeing any defensive snaps last week. Fans are anxious to see what he can do after an eye-opening preseason.
Needless to say, the main attraction in this matchup is Willis and the offense against a middling defense led by a terrific pass rush (fifth-most sacks last season), but one that plays a very vanilla scheme under Gus Bradley, rarely blitzing and rarely attacking with man looks. Logic tells us the Pack will look to pound the ball on the ground after watching the Texans drill Indianapolis for over 200 yards rushing last week. But Indy lightened the box all afternoon, determined to not let C.J. Stroud destroy them through the air. You gotta believe they’ll stack the box this week and see if Willis can accomplish anything in the passing game.
Trading for Willis right before the beginning of the season was a surprise because he would be starting over learning a new system, and his play style is very different from Love’s. Green Bay will have to lean on those distinctive skills these next few weeks. He’s a weapon running with the ball and will likely have carte blanche to take off if his first option is covered. The Pack would be wise to move him out of the pocket as much as possible to try to keep Indianapolis’ pass rushers at bay.
Speaking of which, those Indianapolis guys are banged up. Their defensive star, DeForest Buckner, missed practice Wednesday and Thursday with a back injury. The former San Francisco 49ers defensive tackle has missed only one game in the last four years, so he might be out there, but he won’t be 100%. Defensive end Kwity Paye has also missed practice all week. That might open the door for No. 1 pick Laiatu Latu to get more snaps; he was very impressive against the Texans.
You really hope Willis can show something in the passing game, because he won’t see a friendlier secondary all season. They lost starting corner JuJu Brents for the season with a knee injury last week. They’ll rely on Jaylon Jones, a seventh-rounder last year who, like the Pack’s Carrington Valentine, stepped in admirably last season. Their other outside corner is coming off an Achilles injury and didn’t play last week. Jordan Love would have destroyed this unit.
Kenny Moore is their best corner. He’s an elite nickelback, so it will be interesting to see him battle Jayden Reed, the Pack’s Week 1 star. Look for Matt LaFleur to move Reed all over the field and continue to use him on jet sweeps and other running plays. Maybe the Colts move Moore to the outside and Reed finds himself in a favorable matchup.
This stretch without Love provides the ultimate challenge for LaFleur, who will likely have a pared-down call sheet, but one that features RPOs, designed QB runs, and a heavy dose of Josh Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson (and maybe even MarShawn Lloyd). One thing working in the Pack’s favor is a couple extra days to rest and prepare, while the banged-up Colts defense was on the field for 40 minutes last week and paid the price.
The Pack has won 11-straight home openers. With an healthy Love they’d be a five- or six-point favorite on Sunday. Instead, they are three-point dogs, which seems like an overcorrection to me — I would make it more of a pick ‘em, or maybe Colts -1.
If the defense can muster a few turnovers like it did last week and if special teams holds up its end of the bargain, I think the Pack has a good chance to steal a win. They’ll need the fans to help make things as difficult as possible for Richardson. It’s really impossible to predict what this team will look like with Willis. If it were virtually any other game on the schedule, I’d probably pick a Packers loss.
Packers 20
Colts 19
