Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Phoenix Suns Over 207.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:30 PM CT on ESPN
The Wolves have played some amazing defense against a team with elite scoring threats so far in this series. That’s held Phoenix to 95 and 93 points, but count me as skeptical that it will continue forever. Minnesota’s defense takes a step back on the road, it just does. And even though they’re still a good defensive team away from home, the Suns will step up the offense at their place.
And the Wolves have scored well in this series despite not shooting a good percentage from deep, so if one of the league’s best three-point shooting teams improves there we’ll see the Wolves continue to put up points. That all should add up to these teams finding their way over a low total tonight.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks @ Indiana Pacers -5.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:30 PM CT on ESPN
Make sure that Giannis Antetokounmpo is still out for this game, but if he is, this should be an easy spot for the Pacers. Without the Greek Freak, Milwaukee has no answer for what Indiana is doing on offense, particularly with Pascal Siakam. And now with Khris Middleton also injured and looking like he won’t play, I just don’t see how the Bucks stay in this thing. Damian Lillard can’t do it on his own, the Pacers finally realized they need to step their game up in the playoffs, and I think the Bucks are looking forward to vacation so they won’t put up much of a fight here.
NBA (0.5 Unit) LA Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks -4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN
The Mavericks got their wakeup call after Game 1’s inexplicable loss to the Leonard-less Clippers. As was the case down the stretch of the season, the Mavs relied on their vastly improved defense to shut down an LA team that can’t figure it out offensively. This game is likely to be a slugfest where it’ll be tough for either team to reach triple digits. But in that style of game I like the team that can both defend at an elite level, and get needed buckets from two elite scorers. At below the key NBA number of 5, I’ll lay it with the home team that was favored in this series to start with.
NBA Playoff Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.5 Unit – Karl-Anthony Towns Over 24.5 Points+Rebounds (-110)
0.5 Unit – Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 10.5 Points+Assists (-110)
0.5 Unit – Jusuf Nurkic Over 20.5 Points+Rebounds (-110)
1 Unit – Pascal Siakam Over 38.5 Points+Rebounds (-110)
0.25 Unit – Tyrese Haliburton Over 2.5 Made Three’s (-110)
0.25 Unit – Myles Turner Over 2.5 Made Three’s (+130)
0.5 Unit – Ben Sheppard Over 7.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
1 Unit – Ivica Zubac Over 22.5 Points+Rebounds (-110)
0.5 Unit – Luka Doncic Under 52.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.5 Unit – Daniel Gafford Under 11.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.5 Unit – PJ Washington Over 17.5 Points+Rebounds (-110)
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2247-2055 ATS (+94.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
