Locks
MLB (0.75 Unit) Atlanta Braves/NY Mets Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:10 PM CT on Bally Sports SE
If you’ve been blindly betting the over in Mets games lately, you’ve been doing just fine. They’ve cashed the over in 15 of their past 25 games, and become one of the better teams to the over in all of baseball in the process. The bats are red hot and the pitching is average on a good day, both of which are recipes for runs and things I see continuing in today’s game.
New York has averaged 5.9 runs per game against Atlanta this season, and will see one of their least trustworthy starters here in Spencer Schwellenbach. The Braves righty has a 5.16 ERA on the road this season, and an 8.04 ERA in day games like this so expect the Mets bats to stay hot. But the powerful Braves offense should be able to get to Tylor Megill and a subpar bullpen, cashing another over between these division rivals.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Oakland A’s/LA Angels Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:38 PM CT on NBCS=CA
You’d also be wise to blindly bet the over when the A’s and Angels get together. These teams are 4-0-1 over this total in their past 5 meetings, all played within the last week, and have averaged 9.6 runs per game on the season. I don’t see any reason for that to stop today in a game I think has favorable conditions for plenty of runs.
The pitching matchup should be sneaky favorable for scoring, with two below-average starters and a couple of bad bullpens tangling again. Tyler Anderson for the Angels has good surface numbers but is due for serious regression, and the A’s are better against lefties like him. And Mitch Spence is considerably worse on the road, just look at his last start in LA where he allowed 6 runs in a slugfest. With the wind blowing out at Angel Stadium again, these teams should see no let-up in their scoring tonight.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Brent Rooker Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115; Odds via DraftKings)
Rooker is so insanely locked in right now, I hope the Twins make a move for him before the trade deadline. With 7 home runs in his past 10 games the Oakland left fielder is just crushing everything, and against the Angels this season has a .390 average and 1.346 OPS. Those are incredible numbers and I’d bet his home run prop if the return wasn’t egregiously low, but I’ll settle for him getting a couple of bases in any way possible tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2393-2196 ATS (+95.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
