It’s great to be back for a third season. If you’re new here, every Friday, I deliver a litter of three puppies of at least three points from the weekend slate of NFL games. We’ve finished over 50% in both seasons, so we’re looking to keep the good times rolling.
A warning: some of these are going to look really stinky, but just swallow hard and believe.
Panthers +3 ½ at New Orleans
One of the great Week 1 trends year after year is to fade division favorites of under six points. The divisional dogs hit at a near 70% clip over the past 15 years. This one has even more going for it because the New Orleans Saints are terrible as favorites of a field goal or more. head coach Dennis Allen and Derek Carr are abysmal when they’re laying points.
I’m bullish on the Carolina Panthers anyway after they brought in new coach Dave Canales to repair Bryce Young. After resurrecting Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield the past few years, I think the offense takes a big step. Plus, they’ve bulked up the line and brought in some legit receivers. I’m warning you now: Don’t take the Saints in your Survivor league. The Panthers could easily win this one outright.
Titans +3 ½ at Chicago
The Chicago Bears’ hype train is out of control, fed by a fan base that has been waiting forever for a legit star QB, plus a little help from Hard Knocks. They have set up their rookie phenom for success with a great array of skill players, but it’s still his first game as a pro, and history tells us that QBs picked No. 1 almost always struggle in their debuts.
Meanwhile, everyone is writing off the Titans, but they’ve remade their roster. Most notably, they traded for all-pro CB L’Jarius Sneed and added offensive weapons Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, and Tony Pollard to help out second-year QB Will Levis. Then they added massive tackle JC Latham in the first round to address a line that needed a lot of work.
Everyone loves Da Bears, and they will go as far as Caleb Williams can take them, but in Week 1 they’ll be lucky to sneak out a win. This is too many points.
Jets +4 ½ at San Francisco
I can’t imagine the anxiety Jets fans are feeling as they wait for Aaron Rodgers to take the field, once again on a Monday night in Week 1, having waited more than 20 months to see if Mr. Darkness Retreat has any magic left in him. My guess is they’ll get paid in Week 1, with Rodgers looking sharp and letting his talented skill guys do their thing.
The offensive line has been retooled, and the Jets have both a potential top-five running back and receiver. I don’t expect anything close to MVP numbers for Rodgers, but I think he can make this offense hum and then let one of the best defenses in the league do their thing.
Another solid Week 1 trend is to fade the Super Bowl loser — they’re 0-12 against the spread over the last 12 years. Seriously. Add in that it’s been a tumultuous offseason in San Francisco, with left tackle Trent Williams finally showing up this week, Brandon Aiyuk last week, and Christian McCaffrey dealing with a calf injury.
I’m expecting a bit of a hangover for the Niners and that offense better be ready for the heat the Jets D will bring. Wouldn’t at all be surprised if the Jets spring the upset here. It’s awfully enticing at +180. But for this exercise, I’ll happily take the points — it feels like the line should be no higher than three.
