After a 79-75 win over the Chicago Sky on Sunday afternoon, Courtney Williams fielded questions from the press about her ten-point explosion in the fourth quarter.
“(The Sky) were going under every screen,” Williams told reporters. “So if they give me the shot, I’m going to take it.”
Williams scored 10 points on mid-range pull-ups from a single action pick-and-roll. She went 5 of 6 from the field and drove the Lynx to victory after the Sky tied the game 62-62 with 7:41 to go. Williams scored 10 of Minnesota’s final 17 points, including a back-breaking mid-range shot to put the Lynx up five with 1:04 to go in the game. The shot earned a firm handshake from Cheryl Reeve at the next timeout.
I asked them about the interaction post-game:
Williams’ performance against the Sky has been another in an impressive season that has garnered her consideration for being the most improved player. “It’s something Courtney and I talked about,” Reeve said after the game. “Courtney being back in the conversation as one of the best guards in the league, [which] is where she belongs.”
In her first season with the Lynx, Williams has returned to All-Star form, averaging 11.0 points per game, 4.7 rebounds, and 5.4 assists. She has become the due everything guard the Lynx had sorely missed in recent years. Williams is having a career year and manipulating the pick-and-roll to get to her favorite spots on the floor.
The mid-range jump shot is Williams’ most dangerous weapon. However, mid-range shots have fallen out of favor in modern basketball due to their lack of efficiency. Analytically speaking, a good mid-range shooter typically averages around 30%. Since it’s only worth two points, a player could shoot 100 mid-range shots and only score 60 points.
Conversely, that same player might shoot worse from three. For example, a 20% three-point shooter would score 60 points on 100 shots despite missing 10 more three-point shots. It’s the same with the shot around the rim because it is closer. However, the benefit of analytical shots close to the rim is the chance of being fouled is significantly higher. Therefore, even if players shoot 30% at the rim, they are likely to be fouled more than in the midrange due to spacing.
That realization has caused the NBA and the WNBA to trend away from the mid-range. They favor higher efficiency shots like the three-point shot or shots at the rim. But Williams thrives in the mid-range. She leads the WNBA in mid-range shots (minimum of 1.0 per game). She’s sixth in the league, shooting 45.4% (highest since 2017) from the mid-range on a staggering 6.9 attempts per game, a full 1.2 more than the second-place A’ja Wilson. 56.7% of Williams’s two-point baskets come from the mid-range, her highest total since 2020. That ranks first among all players who play more than eight minutes per game and is 31.4% higher than the second-place Chelsea Gray.
Williams is an elite mid-range shooter with strikingly high efficiency and volume. While Williams is historically a good mid-range shooter, Reeve’s pairing of Williams with Napheesa Collier and bringing her Chicago Sky teammate Alanna Smith is why she has rejuvenated numbers this season.
The pick-and-roll put stress on defenses because Smith (62.2%) and Collier (65.0%) shoot well at the rim. That causes opposing bigs into a drop coverage, as the defending big drops to protect the rim from the rolling Smith or Collier.
The guard then gets held up in the screen, which allows Williams to take an open midrange, dive to the basket and kick out, or attempt the layup. The other defense, referenced earlier by Williams, is that the guard can go under the screen and cut off the drive, kick, and layup options. As Williams told us, she will shoot it, and 45.4% of the time, it goes in.
To further the struggle for defenses, Smith is shooting 42.7% and Collier 32.5% from three. That means that in the same setup, of Williams calling for a pick, both players are competent in fading to the three-point line and making the shot.
Doing so poses another challenge for defenses. As the screen is happening, they can give up a three if the big drops too far. However, they can get rolled around for a layup if they stay too close. Either scenario puts added pressure on the guard to either go under the screen and help with the potential roll or attack (run into) the screen and force the big to delay their roll or fade. Both of those options leave open the mid-range shot for Williams.
That’s where adding Williams and the scheme the Lynx runs set her up for success. Defensive teams typically go off percentages because they often scout the pick-and-roll defense. Percentages suggest that giving up the mid-range is usually better than the roll to the basket, the guard’s drive, or the big to the three-point line fade.
Unfortunately for defenses, Williams excels at the mid-range and leaves defenders languishing as they attempt to contain her. When defenses contain her, or she’s having an off night, Williams has grown as a playmaker to make the correct reads and passes, which adds to her 5.4 assists per game, ranking eighth in the WNBA.
“I love the fans, I love the coaching staff, I love my teammates, I’m happy to be here,” she said, leaning on Reeve. “Thank you, Coach.”
The Lynx are currently the top-ranked team in the Western Conference and surging to a home-court playoff advantage. With Williams’ ability to hit shots in the mid-range and single-handedly win games, they could be looking at a lot more than just home-court advantage. With Williams and how she is playing, they should be competing for a fifth championship banner this year.
