Following the Minnesota Lynx’s 79-68 win over the Washington Mystics on August 15, I asked Napheesa Collier about her 95 overall rating in NBA 2k, making her the third highest-rated WNBA player.
“I feel like it’s an honor,” she replied. “I don’t play, but it sounds like it’s a good thing.”
Her answer combined the humbleness and self-awareness that endeared Collier to Lynx fans well before she became one of the WNBA’s biggest stars.
Fresh off a gold medal-winning run in Paris, Collier has returned to Minneapolis and is picking up right where she left off before her plantar fasciitis injury and extended Olympic break. Collier has been performing at peak levels offensively and defensively, placing her firmly in the MVP conversation, with FanDuel giving her the fifth-best odds.
Collier has been a model of consistency this year, averaging 20.4 points, 9.9 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 2.1 steals, and 1.3 blocks per game. All are career highs except for her points per game, which is just 1.1 points off her career-high 21.5 last year. Collier’s 48.8% field goal percentage and 33.8% from three-point range are also her highest since 2020.
Perhaps the most impressive stat highlighting her consistency this season is that she has only scored under 13 points once. The outlier was the 9-point game during which she went down injured with plantar fasciitis midway through the third quarter.
Collier has been elite offensively this season. Her 20.4 points per game rank fourth in the WNBA, and her 25.6 PER (player efficiency rating) rank third. She has posted a 104.4 offensive rating, which ranks 20th overall among all players regardless of minutes or position. The WNBA’s overall efficiency rating, which attempts to break down a player’s effectiveness to a single number, has her at 25.8, second in the league.
The numbers speak for themselves, but Collier is doing all this while excelling as Minnesota’s offensive focal point. Her 26.6% usage rate is the second highest of her career. Despite her high usage, she has decreased her turnovers to the lowest per-game total since her rookie season at just 2.3 per game.
Collier also has a career-low turnover ratio of just 9.8. Therefore, this season, she has her second-highest usage rate and commits turnovers at the lowest percentage of her career. That has resulted in a 1.56 assist-to-turn-over ratio, a career-best (outside of the 4 total games she played in 2022).
When a player’s usage increases, they typically turn the ball over more, and their assist-to-turnover ratio decreases. That’s due to the increased pressure on the player to make plays and correct decisions.
Higher-usage players also usually draw the best defensive players on the opposing teams due to how much time a high-usage player controls the ball. Collier has improved as a playmaker and decreased the number of turnovers despite having better defenders on her. Combine that with her increased offensive responsibility, and it highlights how dominant she is offensively.
Collier arguably has improved her assist numbers because of better teammates. She likely has turned over the ball less because she doesn’t have to force contested passes in the Lynx’s new free-flowing offense.
Still, Collier’s shooting percentages indicate she is in the middle of an MVP-caliber season. Collier is shooting 52.1% from mid-range, 14 percent better than last season. She also shoots 97.1% of her three-point shots above the break and connects on 33.3%. Last year, she hit those shots at 29.5%.
Collier is making 62.0% of her shots in the restricted area. Combined with her mid-range and three-point percentage increases, Collier is becoming an elite three-level scorer. When defenses crash her at the three-point line, she can drive and pull up or go to the rim, which she thrives at doing.
If defenses play off her, she can hit threes in space. Collier can also create a conundrum for her opponents when she gets the ball in the post. She is elite at finishing at the rim but also has shown the ability to hit mid-range fades and use her footwork to get open. Offensively, there isn’t a hole in her game at this point.
In addition to her offensive improvements, Collier remains a strong defensive player and is arguably better on defense than offense. Her 91.3 defensive rating tops the WNBA among players who play over 24 minutes and third among players who play at least 8 minutes, which is also a career-high. Typically, defensive rating can be attributed to overall team success.
However, Collier’s rating is 2.8 points better than Minnesota’s WNBA best team rating (94.1). Collier averages 34.4 minutes per game. That means the Lynx’s defense plummets in the 5.6 minutes per game Collier isn’t on the floor, reflected by the fact that the overall team rating drops drastically.
To further Collier’s defensive excellence, the Lynx have essentially changed their defensive philosophy to maximize Collier. In lieu of playing a traditional center alongside her, the Lynx have been playing more stretch-shooting players like Alanna Smith or Dorka Juhasz, who are considered undersized as centers.
Their size has not mattered as much due to Collier’s ability to protect the rim and prevent inbound passes, which is how she gets most of her steals. That has allowed the Lynx to play a free-flowing defense in which almost all players can switch and rotate to prevent shots and open lanes.
In a scheme like Minnesota’s, they must have the type of fluidity and consistency from their defensive anchor that Collier brings. That has made Collier the favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year, according to ESPN.
To borrow from Collier, all of this “sounds like a good thing” and has allowed the Lynx to control the Western Conference’s top seed. Collier is in the MVP discussion and is the favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year while maintaining her reputation as a consistent player. With the playoffs just under a month away, Collier and the Lynx have a chance to do something special, win some awards, and raise a banner.
