After a slow start to the season, Natisha Hiedeman has scored 8.29 points per game (42.% from the field, 44.0% from three) in her past seven games. I asked Cheryl Reeves about Hiedeman’s hot streak after Saturday’s 90-80 win over the Indiana Fever.
“It may look like a hot streak, but this is more who she has been in her career,” Reeve replied, “so this is a correction we were hoping for.”
Hiedeman made that correction at the perfect time for the Minnesota Lynx. Since returning from the Olympic break, they have gone a perfect 6-0, extending their winning streak to seven straight.
The Lynx have dominated in the six games since the break, winning every game by double digits or more. Napheesa Collier has driven the winning. However, Hiedeman has gotten on track, which gives the team significantly more flexibility and warrants the hope the Lynx saw when trading for her in the offseason.
Before the Lynx traded for her, Hiedeman played five seasons with the Connecticut Sun, scrapping her way from a rotational bench player as a rookie to starting 40 games last season. She developed a reputation as a three-point shooter, averaging 39.2% from distance with the Suns.
Based on her shooting alone, she fit exactly what the Lynx needed, especially after they only shot 32.5%. Anything else Hiedeman would bring would be a bonus, given how good of a shooter she has been in her career.
That led the Lynx to send Tiffany Mitchell and a second-round pick to Connecticut to bring Hiedeman to the Twin Cities. One day after the trade was finalized, the Lynx signed Chicago standout guard Courtney Williams to a two-year contract, and they had set their point guard rotation for the 2024 season.
Alas, the best-laid plans often go awry. Hiedeman struggled almost immediately after joining the Lynx. In May, she shot 15.4%. She improved her shooting in June but still only shot 21.1%. She shot 25.0% in July, but that’s mainly because of the July 17 game against the Atlanta Dream, when she went 3 of 8 from a distance. Taking that game out, and Hiedeman only shot 12.5%.
However, that July 17 game appeared to be a turning point for Hiedeman. From that game to the present, which includes all seven games of Lynx’s current winning streak, Hiedeman is shooting 39.3% from three. As Reeve said, it may look like a hot streak, but it’s just 0.1% better than her career average. That shows it’s a correction and return to her elite norm, especially given the seven-game sample size.
However, it’s harder to find what’s changed. Hiedeman’s three-point volume has remained the same essentially, averaging 2.1 for the season and 2.4 over the past seven games. She hasn’t played more minutes, averaging 15.3 before the break and 14.7 since. The Lynx’s pace also hasn’t changed, so it’s not that she’s getting open transition threes. Hiedeman’s turnover ratio has increased since the break, so it’s not that she is taking better care of the ball. Her net rating has plummeted since the break, going from a +6.5 to a -11.8 post-break.
So, what changed? The net rating is the biggest clue. Before the break, Hiedeman played most of her minutes with Collier, a luxury for most players. Collier’s scoring ability and ability to create space theoretically would make it easier for a three-point shooting guard to get open shots and knock them down. Kayla McBride (42.1%) and Bridget Carlton (43.9%) are having the second-best three-point shooting of their careers next to Collier.
The net rating drop is the biggest clue because no other Lynx player displays that type of individual greatness to raise a teammate’s net rating by 18.3 points. The WNBA doesn’t track lineups on their website, which means that substitution tracking was the best way to confirm the rating drop coincided with Hiedeman playing less with Collier.
Collier typically plays almost the entire first quarter, but she consistently checks out for a 3- to 4-minute rest about a minute after Hiedeman checks in. The same happens in the third. Collier plays almost the entirety of the third before Hiedeman checks in. Then she heads to the bench shortly after to rest before playing the home stretch in the fourth.
That has resulted in Hiedeman playing 6 to 8 minutes per game while Collier is on the bench. Because Collier has come off on the bench, Hiedeman has seen her usage percentage jump 5.5%, or an additional one out of every 20 more possessions she controls during the game.
With Collier out of the game, Hiedeman can control the offense and play to her strengths as an isolation player. During this time, she displays her ability to break down defenders and get to the basket, pull back her dribble, and hit threes. As a result, her three-point percentage returned to the mean, her field goal percentage improved by 3.3%, and her true shooting increased by 11.2%.
The subtle change of giving Hiedeman half of her 15 minutes per game without Collier has allowed her to get in the game’s rhythm offensively in a way she is used to during her time with the Suns. Her ability to get in a rhythm and feel the flow of the game has increased her shot-making when she plays with Collier and without.
Three-point making aside, Hiedeman has brought the leadership, joy, and defensive ability the Lynx had expected when they traded for her. She’s one of the biggest supporters on the bench and always has an excellent post-game quote about her love for her teammates.
Hiedeman is on pace to finish with the same defensive win shares (1.5) as last year. Her 0.8 steals per game is the same as her career average. Hiedeman has surged offensively back to her norm in the past seven games, and the Lynx are getting exactly what they thought they were trading for.
The Lynx are on top of the Western Conference with nine games left to go in the season. They have a tough road ahead as they play six of nine on the road to close the year. With Hiedeman returning to her elite shooting form, the Lynx have found exactly what they hoped for in the trade: an elite backup guard that can shoulder the load off the bench when Collier sits.
As coach Reeve said, they got the correction they were hoping for.
