If you’re a Minnesota Vikings fan, it was hard not to be optimistic on Sunday afternoon. The Vikings had just blasted the Atlanta Falcons, 42-21. Purple Kool-Aid isn’t real, but if it were, it would have flowed through the concourses of U.S. Bank Stadium as the Vikings improved to 11-2 on the season.
It’s an accomplishment for a team that made Kwesi Adofo-Mensah metaphorically hang the phrase “competitive rebuild” in the rafters last spring. It became even greater considering Kirk Cousins, whose departure from Minnesota made some believe the Vikings were entering a full rebuild, was standing on the opposite sideline.
The Vikings weren’t supposed to be this good in 2024, with a Super Bowl window potentially opening two or three years later. But with the wins piling up, it’s fair to ask: Is this the greatest rebuild year ever?
Determining whether a team is rebuilding is an arbitrary process. Some teams, like the Vikings, have a franchise quarterback waiting on the sidelines. Others have a core of young players who come of age simultaneously and exceed preseason expectations.
There are many ways to go about it, but the best way may be to look at the preseason over/under totals for wins. While gamblers may not want to admit it, Vegas usually has the heartbeat on a team’s performance, and the oddsmakers left the Vikings for dead last summer, saddling them with a 6.5 win total for 2024.
Nobody could blame bookies for not being optimistic about Minnesota’s odds this season. After Cousins left for Atlanta, the Vikings tabbed Sam Darnold as their starting quarterback. A former draft bust with the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers, Darnold spent last year as a backup for the San Francisco 49ers. Even Vikings fans and local commentators thought a high draft pick was more likely than the top seed in the NFC.
Things got worse when J.J. McCarthy tore his meniscus in the preseason. The season-ending injury meant Darnold would be the starter the entire season. The notorious YouTube clip of him seeing ghosts didn’t inspire confidence.
But while many were fixated on the quarterback, people didn’t pay enough attention to what was happening elsewhere on the roster. The Vikings used the $35 million saved between Darnold’s $10 million contract and Cousins’ $45 million annual salary with the Falcons and invested it elsewhere.
With their newfound pile of cash, the Vikings brought in Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, and Blake Cashman. There was enough left over to add Aaron Jones, who has brought stability to Minnesota’s running game.
Add in Kevin O’Connell‘s infrastructure and a defense Brian Flores masterminded, and you saw a lot of what happened on Sunday. Darnold threw five touchdowns – two to Justin Jefferson and three to Jordan Addison – and the defense bent with nearly seven yards per play allowed but didn’t break, forcing Cousins into a pair of interceptions.
One of the league’s best defenses and an offense that is still a work in progress have the Vikings on the verge of clinching a playoff spot. If they can beat the Chicago Bears on Monday night, they will nearly double their preseason wins prediction.
If you still think 2024 is a rebuilding year, it has to be one of the best in recent memory. But is it the best in Vikings history? And how does it stack up compared to some of the greatest out-of-nowhere stories in NFL history?
When you look at Vikings history, this year’s team may be the best.
Vegas projected the 1998 team for 8.5 wins before the season, and they ripped off a 15-1 season thanks to one of the greatest offenses in NFL history. Vikings fans know what happened next, so we can skip to the next team.
People thought the 2000 Vikings were in transition, with an 8.5 projected win total under second-year quarterback Daunte Culpepper. But his redshirt year, along with the framework of the 1998 offense, helped him lead Minnesota to an 11-5 record and a spot in the NFC Championship game. (Again, we’ll just move along.)
The 2009 Vikings posted a 13-3 record and reached the NFC Championship with Brett Favre (Move along, people!). However, they were projected for 9.5 wins coming off a division championship the previous year.
The 2017 Vikings also went 13-3 and reached the NFC Championship game (Ugh…). They comprised an ascending group who won a division title in 2015 and started 2016 by winning their first five games. For that, they had a projected win total of 8.5 wins coming into the year.
Then there were the 2022 Vikings, who went 13-4 in Kevin O’Connell’s first season. While some were surprised that O’Connell got that much out of an aging group the previous regime built, they were still projected for 9.5 wins thanks to some of the names on that team.
You can also look at each situation and safely say that none of these teams were really rebuilding. Still, there are a few examples that compare to this year’s team.
The 2012 Vikings came off a 3-13 season in 2011, and oddsmakers didn’t see much hope, slapping Minnesota with a projected win total of six. Adrian Peterson single-handedly blew that total out of the water, carrying the Vikings to a 10-6 record on their way to the MVP award.
That team also had some players come of age, including Percy Harvin, Kyle Rudolph, and Harrison Smith, as well as 24-year-old quarterback Christian Ponder. Ponder didn’t pan out, but it felt like a rebuild around him as the Vikings willed themselves to a playoff berth.
Three years later, Minnesota had another rebuilding season under Zimmer. The rookie draft class, including Stefon Diggs, Danielle Hunter, and Eric Kendricks, played a key role. However, Minnesota was also rolling with second-year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater under center. The Vikings went on to win the NFC North that year, but they still had a win total of eight, likely because of their playoff success in 2012.
When looking at those teams, it’s kind of surprising that Minnesota’s win total was so low entering the season. But a step back would have made sense with Cousins gone and the gradual stripping of a foundation laid with that 2015 team.
It also gives the Vikings a chance to be one of the least-expected success stories over the past 25 years, joining the 1999 St. Louis Rams, 2001 New England Patriots, and the 2021 Cincinnati Bengals as teams with a preseason win total at or below 6.5 wins to reach the Super Bowl.
The 2021 Bengals were a bit of an outlier because they had Joe Burrow. However, his ACL injury in the 2020 season caused some doubt about how he would respond. Mix in Cincinnati’s dubious history, and Vegas gave it a projected win total of 6.5.
The Bengals didn’t blow the doors off that total with a 10-7 record, but they got hot when it mattered. Burrow reunited with his LSU teammate Ja’Marr Chase, and the Bengals upset the Tennessee Titans and Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl, where they fell to O’Connell and the Los Angeles Rams.
The 2001 Patriots were more of an unknown. Bill Belichick jumped from the New York Jets to New England, and Tom Brady was a sixth-round draft pick, playing behind a perennial Pro Bowler Drew Bledsoe. Mo Lewis hit Bledsoe so hard he shifted the NFL’s timeline, and Brady came into lead a team with a 6.5 win total to an 11-5 season and his first Super Bowl.
Then there were the 1999 Rams, who thought their season was done when Trent Green injured his knee during a preseason game. A little-known backup named Kurt Warner took over, and they hit the NFL with “The Greatest Show on Turf,” headlined by Warner, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, and Marshall Faulk.
The result was a team with a 5.5 projected win total at the beginning of the season stopping Kevin Dyson a yard short of the goal line, giving the Rams one of the most improbable Super Bowl wins in NFL history.
If we want to talk about the greatest rebuild ever, perhaps that Rams team came out of nowhere to win the Super Bowl. But the Vikings are making their bid in a wide-open NFC when many thought fans would be deciding between Travis Hunter or Ashton Jeanty by now.
Instead, the Vikings are pulling off one of the greatest rebuilds in NFL history, and it could lead to plenty of success – either this year or beyond.
