The stakes are high for the Minnesota Vikings, and also very clear: J.J. McCarthy must become their franchise quarterback of the future. Anything less would be considered a failure. The team spent the 10th-overall pick on the National Championship winner out of Michigan and hopes, despite some skepticism from fans and analysts, that he can continue his winning ways in the NFL.
McCarthy was the youngest QB in the draft, and people often criticized him in the pre-draft process because they thought Michigan’s dominant run game carried him. McCarthy didn’t rack up the volume stats at Michigan, with only one 300-yard passing game during the 2023 season. By contrast, the other five QBs selected in the first round had at least five each. Drake Maye had the fewest besides McCarthy at five, but he played in 12 games compared to McCarthy’s 15.
Analysis by proxy — that Michigan didn’t need to rely on McCarthy as much as other teams relied on their players — may be useful when speaking generally about a player. However, it would be bad business for an NFL front office that is putting their jobs on the line by drafting a player. They need to do their homework on the person and dive into the tape to figure out whether McCarthy’s lack of statistical output is due to his own shortcomings.
While we on the outside don’t have the access to learn about McCarthy the person, we can watch the games. To get a feel for who McCarthy is as a player, I went to the tape and watched the entirety of his 2023 season — all 15 games.
pocket management
At Michigan, McCarthy was asked to execute the full range of dropbacks in an NFL offense, from one-step quick-game throws from shotgun to play-action rollouts to the flat to seven-step straight dropback play-action concepts. Like most offenses, Michigan primarily based its passing game on three-step dropbacks out of the gun. This is a baseline skill that QBs in Minnesota’s offense will need to have. Not all QBs at the college level, particularly in air-raid offenses, are tasked with handling the variety of dropbacks McCarthy was at Michigan.
McCarthy does a good job maintaining consistent dropback depth (8-9 yards on three-step drops) and rarely hangs his offensive linemen out to dry by dropping back too deep and ruining blocking angles. He will take deeper dropbacks to allow longer-developing plays on third-and-long to develop. However, that’s really the only time he deviates from typical dropback depth.
When he hits the top of his dropback, McCarthy dovetails to set up a throw to his first read. This nuance helps keep him centered in the pocket and avoid unnecessary hits.
Once he hits the top of his drop, McCarthy is consistently resetting as he goes through reads. While he bounces, he keeps his feet in dynamic throwing positions and has them in line with his eyes. The play below is a good example, where he opens left and comes back across the field. This play also includes the ability to subtly sidestep a rusher who is coming up the hash and still deliver the throw in rhythm.
McCarthy consistently makes pocket movements like the above to make it seem like the potential for pressure was never even there. Below, he moves right to help his lineman recover against a stunt while throwing slightly to the left for a nice pickup.
McCarthy also has the stones to stare down the barrel of a rush and delivery passes when he knows he’s going to get hit. On the play below, he ends up with an unblocked defender in his face and delivers while taking a big hit:
McCarthy also has the quickness to make significant climbs in the pocket past pressure look easy. Here, he climbs past a couple of rushers up the middle and delivers an accurate pass that ends up going for a TD.
When McCarthy scrambles, he does so with the intent to throw. On the play below, he has the option to take the edge and run but instead finds the open receiver on the sideline for a significant gain.
McCarthy isn’t perfect in the pocket, but no one is. His ability to dovetail and line himself up for throws can get him in trouble if those throws get taken away. Below, he wants the whip route, but it’s covered, and he ends up drifting into the back of his LT. That flushes him from the pocket and eventually takes away his ability to throw while going to his left. It leads to a sack when he tries to get away from the defender who peeled off of coverage to contain him.
McCarthy generally manages pressure well. Michigan is heralded for its dominant offensive line, but that reputation was mostly based on the run game. In pass protection, the line regularly struggled, leading to McCarthy having a pressure rate of 30.5%, which was actually higher than all of the other first-round QBs besides Caleb Williams, per PFF. McCarthy was also rarely responsible for his own pressure. PFF charted him as responsible for just 13 pressures on the season (my charting has him responsible for eight). That number is lower than any other first-round QB and by far lower on a percentage basis.
If you combine the two pieces of information above, Michigan’s offense (outside of McCarthy) allowed pressure on 27% of dropbacks, which is significantly higher than any quarterback’s. Despite Michigan’s running game helping McCarthy on the scoreboard, the offense didn’t actually do much at all to help him in the dropback passing game.
Notably, the pressure rate McCarthy faced in Michigan was still less than what he’ll face in the NFL. Of the 43 QBs who dropped back at least 165 times last year, only five faced pressure at that rate or below: Joe Burrow, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, and Tua Tagovailoa. Kirk Cousins rarely invited his own pressure and ended up facing it anywhere from 32.6% (in 2023) to 39% (in 2018) of the time. McCarthy has room to grow in this area, but I think he’s about as ready as any college QB can be.
Here’s a sample of some of his plays against pressure:
mental processing
Pre-snap, McCarthy wasn’t asked to take on the same mental load at Michigan as an NFL QB. Like most college QBs, the team was instructed to look to the sideline for checks and audibles once the defense was set. Of course, he had to communicate small changes and make sure everyone was on the same page. However, additional pre-snap tasks and audibles are something he will have to adjust to at the NFL level.
A positive sign is that he was able to identify blitzes and pressure pre-snap, pointing out defenders and tailoring his dropback away from the potential pressure. He was able to do this consistently, game after game, and that hopefully bodes well for his ability to help with protection calls.
The poise McCarthy is famous for due to his pre-game rituals shows up under pressure, like on the plays in the previous section. However, it also shows up when a bad snap comes his way. He smoothly adjusted to off-target snaps and was also able to catch this one he wasn’t expecting and quickly make a throw:
The Michigan offense didn’t have the world’s most advanced RPO game. They mostly used simple RPO screens rather than the downfield RPOs that some college schools have heavily leaned into. McCarthy generally made the correct decision on these plays, given the pre-snap box count and post-snap defender movement. He was also asked to run read option, and Michigan had a few triple-option plays that he executed well. I’m not worried about McCarthy’s ability to quickly read defenders and make good choices in these situations.
On quick-game throws, McCarthy was willing to take free yardage provided by off-coverage defenders. Below is an example where the DB plays seven yards off, and McCarthy quickly makes a throw as he bails to an open receiver for a nine-yard gain on first down.
The Michigan offense loved smash concepts and other plays that operate similar to smash, so throws like the one above are littered throughout McCarthy’s tape. However, that doesn’t mean that McCarthy can’t progress past the first read or correctly read out the play. The second play I posted above is a great example of McCarthy progressing all the way through to the fourth read to get a chunk gain. He can also do it quickly on a staple quick-game concept like spacing.
McCarthy can also read plays on the move, like on rollouts. Here, he is getting to his third read for the TD throw.
On the move, McCarthy understands how his movement manipulates defenders and has a feel for where open players are going to be once he scrambles, like on the play below:
McCarthy is also proficient throwing option routes — something that’s a staple of the Vikings’ offense. He is consistently on the same page with his target, correctly reading defender leverage and delivering accurate, on-time passes, like the one below.
Michigan’s more pro-style offense benefitted McCarthy because it allowed him to show one of his strengths: His ability to make tight window and anticipation throws. With many college teams, spread offenses are so wide open that QBs are typically throwing into a lot of space. McCarthy’s understanding of defenses led to some sharp plays with few mistakes.
Here is one of the most impressive throws from his season, a tight window throw for a TD against Ohio State:
McCarthy’s excellent anticipation shows up consistently, like in the compilation of plays below:
McCarthy isn’t perfect as a decision-maker, but he seldom threw interceptable passes throughout the 2023 season. McCarthy only threw nine interceptable passes on the season, per PFF, and seven of those were concentrated in the Bowling Green and Maryland games. Only four of those were actually caught. Here they are:
In the plays above, there are a couple of significant decision-making mistakes. The worst is probably the dropped seam against Maryland, where the defender is in position to undercut the route, and the post against Bowling Green, where he should have thrown the inside post to Roman Wilson instead of targeting the second post.
After that, there’s a checkdown against Maryland that he was late to. He also had a few throws against Bowling Green and two against Maryland, where he didn’t get enough loft on the ball that he tried to throw to the back of the end zone (more on that in the next section). The throw against Alabama and the first one against Bowling Green were scramble situations where he tried to do too much and ended up putting the ball in harm’s way when he should have thrown it out of bounds. In the Iowa game, the route is open, but I’m pretty sure the ball gets deflected at the line of scrimmage, which leads to an off-target pass right to the defender.
That highlights an interesting facet of McCarthy’s play, which is that he doesn’t often throw the ball away. PFF only has him charted with one throwaway, and I credited him with two I thought were throwaways, with only two more that I noted as possible throwaways. Throwing the ball away is generally a fine decision for QBs, and never throwing the ball away could indicate that the player is forcing passes. McCarthy doesn’t really force many throws, as shown above. Still, I’ll be curious if he’s more willing to give up on plays in the NFL.
The lack of throwaways combines with another small concern I have about McCarthy. Too often, he turns down throws that are in his vision and looks open, leaving opportunities in structure to play out of structure or check down. He’s capable of making the open throws in the plays above and does so on a pretty regular basis, but obviously, he was not perfect in that regard. I’d rather rein in the aggression than try to make a player more aggressive.
Overall, I think McCarthy is quite good as a decision-maker and should be ready to read the field against NFL-level defenses. Still, there are certainly a couple of lingering flaws that need to be improved.
Arm Talent
Full disclosure: I didn’t study McCarthy or any of the other quarterback prospects in detail prior to the draft. The most I caught was a couple of games, so I didn’t have a strong feel for his game before scouting him after the Vikings made him their guy. Given that, I was a bit surprised that McCarthy has an excellent arm because pre-draft coverage made it seem like he lacked the top-end arm talent to have elite upside as a player.
There are different components to arm talent, including velocity, the ability to throw from different platforms, and overall accuracy. McCarthy consistently throws with great velocity, has the ability to throw off platform and from different angles, and can make every throw even if the accuracy and touch isn’t always there. McCarthy may not be elite when it comes to arm talent. However, he easily has room to grow into the space just below the Patrick Mahomes and prime Aaron Rodgers tier, with players like Trevor Lawrence, C.J. Stroud, Kyler Murray, and Dak Prescott — certainly above players like Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, and Brock Purdy — in terms of sheer arm talent.
Let’s dig a little bit into why I feel that way.
The first is the immediate trust that Michigan had in designing concepts to be thrown to the field (when the ball is on a hash, the wide side of the field is known as the “field,” and the short side is known as the “boundary”). Michigan was extremely comfortably drawing up plays that had quick and deep passes in that direction. The challenge with field throws is obvious. The college hashes are 40 ft. apart. Therefore, on a given hash, the near sideline is 60 ft. away while the far hash is 100 ft. off, and thus throws to the field are a lot further.
In the NFL, the difference is only 18.5 ft., so it’s about 71 ft. to the near sideline and 89 ft. to the far sideline. If a college QB lacks arm strength, you will see an offense operate towards the boundary with their designs to make it easier for him. That wasn’t the case at all with McCarthy. Michigan had him throwing to the outside the numbers to the field on about 15% of his passes. Check out this TD in their Week 1 game, where McCarthy throws a laser in between two defenders on the corner route:
Because of the distance they have to travel, throws to the field are ripe for cornerbacks to potentially pick off. We already saw McCarthy’s interceptable passes, and none of them were in a situation where he didn’t have the velocity to beat a defender jumping a pass on an in-rhythm throw. Here’s an impressive out to the field where the CB would have had an opportunity to jump a throw with less velocity:
The plays above aren’t one-offs. Here’s a compilation:
McCarthy has velocity. However, he also has shown the ability to layer throws to get the ball over underneath defenders and down to his receiver, like in the play below:
McCarthy can also throw a beautiful go ball, laying the ball in the bucket for the receiver in this case. In the play below, the receiver does a lousy job of adjusting to the ball, and it falls incomplete. However, it’s not McCarthy’s fault:
Admittedly, the ability to layer throws is one of the biggest concerns with McCarthy’s game. The potential picks above show some issues here. He could benefit from using the touch he has more often. On top of the plays above, the below throw is an example where if he were to layer this post and lead the receiver with a bit more loft, the WR would have been able to run underneath it and make an in-stride catch for a TD rather than getting surprised and having to reach over his head to try to make the catch:
Timing is another element that I have a slight concern about. I would say that most of McCarthy’s passes hit his receiver in stride and look very catchable, like this throw:
However, when McCarthy was off, he had a tendency to be a half-step behind the receiver. That could let DBs back into plays and lead to pass breakups, like in the play below:
From a footwork perspective, McCarthy is typically very good on in-pocket throws, but there are some blemishes. McCarthy had a notable miss where his front toe was not pointed in the correct direction in the below:
McCarthy also had some overstriding issues, particularly on throws to the left. Accuracy on throws to the left is a concern I’ve seen raised, and he certainly has missed in that area.
Still, it’s possible that a number of misses might not be on him. I feel as though the Michigan WRs had a tendency to drift in their routes, and they may not have always been at the correct depth. Take the below play as an example:
From an arm-angle perspective, McCarthy is proficient at changing his arm slot to work around defenders. He didn’t have major issues with batted passes, with only five on the season. On the play below he does a good job of changing his arm slot to get a screen pass around a defender who is charging upfield:
Finally, let’s get to the most exciting part of an QB’s game: the off-platform throws. I want to start out with the peak, which is one of the most impressive athletic feats I’ve seen from any QB. On this trick play against Alabama, McCarthy makes a one handed catch over his head, has to orient himself, finds an open receiver downfield, and quickly sets his feet to throw an accurate pass to an open WR close to 30 yards from where he threw it:
McCarthy has plenty of power and torque in his throwing motion, as can be seen by this throw while drifting backward:
McCarthy can throw accurately across his body off-platform and with velocity while scrambling, like on the play below:
Even harder than throwing across your body moving to the right is doing it moving to the left, which McCarthy does with relative ease here:
If I had a criticism of McCarthy throwing on the move, it’s that he doesn’t reset his feet often enough. I’d like him to be more consistent as he gets to the NFL because windows get that much smaller, and every little bit helps. Still, it’s hard not to be impressed with McCarthy’s throws on the move.
In all, J.J. McCarthy has high-level arm talent. He might fall short of Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, or Anthony Richardson in terms of pure velocity and may not have quite the dynamic throwing ability from any platform of Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, or Aaron Rodgers. Still, I would say he’s only a little short of those players in terms of his potential as a thrower, which is high praise.
running ability
We’ve seen numerous examples of McCarthy on the move while scrambling, but I haven’t focused specifically on his running ability. McCarthy didn’t test extensively at the Combine. However, he did the agility drills, and for good reason, because he crushed them:
McCarthy’s 6.82-second three-cone is excellent, and it’s one of the drills that correlates most to QB success in the NFL. That athleticism regularly shows up, and McCarthy has the quickness to make defenders miss in space:
McCarthy might not have an elite top speed, but he also has significant burst. Here, he’s able to convert a third-and-long with a scramble up the middle and get even more yardage because his burst meant that No. 20 on the defense took a bad angle and missed a tackle:
McCarthy also shows strong balance as a runner. He can work through tackle attempts and keep going. On the play below, he sheds an attempt and then smartly gets out of bounds since he’s converted the first down:
McCarthy is good at protecting himself and the football, holding it high and tight and also knowing when to give plays up and get out of bounds.
McCarthy fumbled three times on the year, including one botched handoff. Fumbles are going to happen, and McCarthy’s fumbling isn’t a significant concern.
Michigan was comfortable using McCarthy on designed runs because of the skills above. He proficiently read-option plays, including read option and GT Counter. Check out a compilation of his plays below:
McCarthy was also very proficient running as a scramble, and you can see a compilation of some of his scrambles below:
Overall, McCarthy is a very proficient runner for a QB. He’s not going to reach the upper echelon of the NFL in terms of running ability because he doesn’t have Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, and Kyler Murray‘s speed or Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen‘s size. However, he’s an extremely mobile player who can easily make an impact with his legs. I’d put his mobility up there with players like Daniel Jones, Trevor Lawrence, and Jordan Love.
summary
As a passer, J.J. McCarthy showcases good dropback footwork and play in rhythm. He can make subtle adjustments in the pocket to mitigate pressure and also make larger moves to step up and avoid pressure with an appropriate response. He’s poised under pressure or when things go a little sideways and never appears rushed or frantic. He makes proficient pre-snap reads and can identify blitzes pre-snap while correctly understanding defender leverage and executing post-snap reads. However, Michigan didn’t ask him to audible at the line of scrimmage, so that part of his game is unknown. McCarthy makes sound decisions and regularly finds the first-available open player, targeting him with an accurate pass. McCarthy has some lapses where he misses open players. More often, he can throw with anticipation to create windows for players to be open, and he rarely puts the ball in harm’s way.
McCarthy shows the ability to lead his receiver away from defenders and put the ball where only his guy can get it. He has some mechanical lapses that lead to accuracy issues, and those could develop into a major concern if he doesn’t fix them, but he has examples of accurate throws to every level of the field in every direction. He’s particularly proficient throwing over the middle with zip to beat linebackers and get big chunks on tight-window, NFL-level throws. McCarthy can change his arm slot for accurate throws and generates significant velocity even without setting his feet on throws on the move.
McCarthy looks to throw when scrambling but will use his legs when he sees a clear opportunity. He has the athleticism to do significant damage, accelerating past LBs and working around tacklers with his quickness. He’s also used on designed runs, where his quickness and ability to set up his blockers show up. McCarthy may not be an elite athlete, but he is very proficient as a runner and will provide a threat with his legs at the next level. He generally takes care of the football, fumbling only three times across Michigan’s 15-game season.
how ready is he to play?
Now on to the question everyone wants to know — is J.J. McCarthy ready to start Week 1? I think it’s highly unlikely, given that the Vikings brought in Sam Darnold and appear to have a well-defined development track for McCarthy. However, I think that McCarthy would succeed if asked to start right away. One thing that’s hard to translate over a scouting report or with words is the consistent poise that McCarthy demonstrates. The situation was never too big or too daunting for him, even given his age. He took pressure, bad snaps, and poor routes by receivers in stride and consistently made positive plays. That gives me faith that he can make it work at the NFL level, and soon.
Still, there are a couple of markers that I would like McCarthy to hit before he takes the field in a real game. The first is with footwork, particularly on the throws I highlighted going to the left. To succeed in the NFL, he needs to get synced up with his receivers and be more accurate on those plays. That should be very possible. Kevin O’Connell made it clear before the draft that he firmly believes footwork issues are fixable. The second is something we don’t have great insight into, and that’s the ability to manage the game at the line of scrimmage, reading the defense and calling audibles. Like most QBs, McCarthy didn’t have to do that in college. However, his poise and consistently correct reading of the defense lead me to believe he has the capacity to learn that skill quickly.
Time will tell if the Vikings made the right choice in taking McCarthy, but the signs from his college tape are positive for me. I believe McCarthy has the skills to develop into an upper-tier NFL QB, and his college tape was extremely positive. He will certainly face more adversity at the NFL level than he did in college, but he performed well at Michigan in the rare situations where the game was put on his shoulders, and he appears to have the mindset to work through the adversity he will face. To me, McCarthy is a great pick.
