On Sunday, Ben Johnson and the Detroit Lions offense may have found the Achilles’ heel of Brian Flores’ defense. The Minnesota Vikings’ defense has out-schemed Matt LaFleur and Kyle Shanahan, some of the best play-callers in the league this season. Still, it’s worth worrying that Johnson may have cracked the code.
A short week coming off of a loss can be a benefit. There is less time to dwell when you have to get right back on the horse in three days. However, with a matchup against another great play-caller like Sean McVay looming, will Flores have enough time to correct what the Lions exposed?
While Flores’ pre-snap disguises and blitz packages are nothing short of maniacal, the post-snap coverages are pretty standard. A lot of Cover 2, Tampa 2, Quarters, and Palms. No team in the league runs more two-high coverages than Minnesota. That’s a function of prioritizing limiting big plays and forcing short, quick throws. The deception and quick pressure force quick throws, but the deception only buys you a second or two. If the opposing offensive line can block up the blitz or sort out the unorthodox four-man pressures, the quarterback’s reads become pretty basic.
The Lions have a great offensive line, but they took no chances when scheming to block Minnesota’s pressure. They often kept a running back and/or tight end in pass protection to buy a little extra time. Being static with these looks is not enough against Minnesota, though. They can adjust when the defense lines up and sees a potential max protection. The Lions motioned an additional blocker into the protection just before the snap to nix this opportunity and ensure that Johnson had the pen last.
When matched with a six-plus man pressure like the touchdown play to Amon-Ra St. Brown, it is exceedingly difficult for the defense to cover on the back end.
I would not be surprised to see McVay give this a go on Thursday night. The Los Angeles Rams already use a ton of wide receiver motion to contribute in the run game and crack down on front-side edge players, so I wouldn’t think it’s overly complex for them to install. The question is, will Flores have a counter? His players are smart enough to check into alternate assignments. Much like when the slide-side edge rusher drops into coverage when the Vikings show cover 0, a player whose assignment is to blitz on the original play call can drop at the snap if the Rams motion an additional blocker into protection.
The Rams have needed to max protect often this season due to the slew of offensive line injuries they’ve endured. They’ve had some success with three-man route combinations when they do so, and there are some examples of them running Dagger out of these looks that Flores is sure to be studying. Matthew Stafford is phenomenal at throwing the intermediate pass over the middle. He is more than willing to hold the ball an extra split second and take a hit to allow his receivers to open up behind the linebackers. If the Vikings don’t have new answers this week against these sort of concepts, this game may be closer than it should be.
While it feels like the Lions ran all over the Vikings on Sunday, given a couple of explosive runs, Flores’ defense held up pretty well compared to Detroit’s other opponents. Holding the Lions to a 29.6% rushing success rate is no small feat. Unsurprisingly, Harrison Phillips stood out in run defense. He might have a field day against a depleted Rams interior that is down to its third option at center.
The Rams boast another strong rushing attack, although it is a different style than Detroit’s. LA’s attack is plodding and consistent but lacks an explosive element. While they are second in the NFL in success rate, they are 30th in explosive runs, 27th in rush yards per play, and 24th in yards before contact per rush.
Kyren Williams’ rushing style is more akin to that of David Montgomery than Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs accounted for most of the big runs on Sunday while they held Montgomery to 31 yards on nine carries, and he missed some snaps due to injury. Minnesota should be confident in stopping this run game and putting the Rams in a similar position to its first five opponents — sequestered to a desperate come-from-behind passing attack.
Cooper Kupp should return from injury this week if they don’t trade him first, which will be a big boost for the Rams. It’s unclear whether Kupp will be 100%, but McVay and Stafford set a reasonably high floor for this offense that lacks secondary playmakers. Minnesota native Tyler Johnson and Tutu Atwell project to get a lot of snaps. While they are functional receivers, they are no game-breakers.
LA can score some points and push the same pressure points as Detroit, but they don’t have the talent to do so consistently.
Minnesota’s key will be to generate pressure with four and mix up coverages a bit more. A little bit of single-high never hurt nobody. The Vikings have had some success in man coverage this season, whether it be cover 2 man or cover 1. With one major threat on the offense, it would be a good game to go to some cover 1 double to assign a second defender to Kupp and force the secondary and tertiary playmakers to beat them.
The Rams have done a passable job scheming against pressure despite the offensive line injuries, ranking 14th in pressure rate allowed. Stafford has plenty to do with this. Despite lacking out-of-pocket mobility, he is still efficient enough with his footwork and creative enough with his arm angles to rescue broken pockets and keep his eyes downfield.
Flores will be playing with a relatively stacked deck from a talent perspective, so another underwhelming defensive performance could be concerning. Ultimately, the players and staff know this is a crucial “get-back” game and will undoubtedly be up for it in prime time. It will take a genius playcalling display from Sean McVay and a mistake-free game from his offense to beat this Vikings team.
We can expect another strong performance from Minnesota’s defense, considering how well it’s performed against similar offensive structures. This game will teach us a lot about the unit and Brian Flores as a playcaller.
