Two minutes after the Minnesota Vikings signed Kyler Murray this offseason, J.J. McCarthy trade speculation began to run rampant. With Murray expected to win the starting job, it’s been easy to say that the franchise should move on from McCarthy after a failed experiment. But regardless of the suggestions, trading the former first-round pick makes little sense, and Minnesota has been flashing a giant neon sign all summer long signaling that they tend to agree.
The numbers from McCarthy’s first year as starter were ugly. Virtually no one will deny it. He found himself at or near the bottom in nearly every major metric. The team narrowly had a winning record, and it was despite the quarterback play, which did nothing to help. While it’s likely that Murray gets the nod in 2026, the Vikings won’t feel inclined to deal their former savior.
Kevin O’Connell is a scarred man. After trudging through 2023 with a combination of Jaren Hall, Josh Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and Kirk Cousins, and then again in 2025 with McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer, he’ll probably never fully heal from the trauma. The Vikings’ injury luck at quarterback hasn’t been on their side, and it’s clear that O’Connell is determined to start making his own luck.
“We’ve played three guys in one [season]. We played four in another,” O’Connell recalled earlier this spring. “We just feel like having the ability to get quality quarterback play throughout the circumstances that we do not control throughout the season gives our team historical data that says, if we get quarterback play to a certain line, we win a lot of football games. So we wanted to ensure that we’re able to do that, but also make it a very, very competitive room.”
Trading McCarthy would be in direct conflict with O’Connell’s ambitions to ensure quality quarterback play regardless of injuries. Sure, Wentz is back, but he did little last season to show that he can keep the ball rolling if called upon.
The big knock on McCarthy was that he struggled just to do the easy things: hit the checkdown, take the smart play, and just execute the offense overall. Wentz may have brought a steady veteran presence, but his play showed he wasn’t much better at keeping the offense on track. On zero-graded throws, which Pro Football Focus (PFF) defines as “simply a quarterback doing his job, making a play that an NFL quarterback would be expected to make,” Wentz ranked 24th in the NFL in 2025 with a -0.11 EPA per attempt.
Wentz’s 2-3 record as a starter further showed that he’s no longer a reliable starter for an extended period. Does he elevate the room? Yes, absolutely. He’s a quality veteran with a breadth of knowledge and experience. Still, expecting him to win double-digit games if Murray goes down in Week 1 is a fool’s errand.
That’s not to say McCarthy could do the same. However, he was 6-4 as a starter in 2025 and is theoretically still on an upward trajectory. It may not be at the pace Minnesota had hoped, but he’s assuredly better than he was last year.
OTAs and minicamp have already shown us that there’s plenty of awkwardness to go around in the quarterback room, prompting much of the trade debate. McCarthy would undoubtedly be disappointed to lose the starting role. Still, to think Minnesota would trade him simply to protect some feelings and avoid any potential discomfort in the team cafeteria is unrealistic.
Quarterback is in the spotlight more than any other position, but players lose competitions every year. Every team has disgruntled players riding the bench who thought they should’ve been suiting up on Sundays. For the Vikings, this player happens to play a position that is constantly under a microscope. Still, this dynamic, in general, is nothing new to the locker room.
But, say for just one moment, that the Vikings wanted to just completely cut bait and move on from McCarthy. His value, like the Indianapolis Colts are finding out with Anthony Richardson, would be low. Dealing a young talent on a rookie deal for what would be a mid- to late-round pick doesn’t exactly move the needle much.
So, McCarthy will likely be upset to lose the job, Wentz is back again, and the Vikings have a new general manager with absolutely zero ties to McCarthy, either. But trading him offers no benefit other than to make Murray feel better that he doesn’t have a guy breathing down his neck if he slips. O’Connell’s obsession with depth might be McCarthy’s saving grace here, but it’s not like the Vikings are leaving Day 1 or 2 picks on the table here.
If Murray pulls a Sam Darnold and erupts for 14 wins and earns a $100 million deal (with Minnesota this time), then we can have a conversation about moving on from McCarthy. But for now, it’s a waste of breath.
