The NFL’s greatest love story might involve Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift. Still, it didn’t hold a candle to the one Kirk Cousins has had with his coaches over his career.
At one point, it wouldn’t have been surprising if Kevin O’Connell had shown up at Cousins’ house with posterboard signs like the famous scene in Love, Actually. The rumors of Kyle Shanahan’s lustful eye — even as he found his franchise quarterback in Brock Purdy — didn’t stop until Cousins jumped at the biggest contract he could find with the Atlanta Falcons.
Getting dumped by your quarterback is a situation that few experience in the NFL, but it has some familiar feelings. In the moments after the breakup, the search begins for a newer, better version of the relationship you just had. The Vikings believe they found their answer by signing Sam Darnold.
Some Vikings fans believe that signing Darnold is like O’Connell going to the bar and swearing he brought home “a solid seven” but waking up next to a “soft four.” Darnold’s has been filled with disappointment. But what if O’Connell sees a little bit of Cousins in Darnold and is waiting to bring it out?
Consider the situation that O’Connell walked into when Minnesota hired him. Cousins was a solid solution at quarterback, but many of his coaches failed to bring the best out of him. Jay Gruden and Mike Zimmer butted heads with Cousins during the early years as a starter; after the turmoil with the latter boiled over in 2021, the Vikings brought O’Connell in to help re-wire Cousins.
Cousins’ greatest flaw was a lack of aggression when it mattered most. His 4.4% career big-time-throw rate would have ranked next to Joe Burrow, Baker Mayfield, and C.J. Stroud last year. However, his 3% career turnover rate slots in next to Jimmy Garoppolo, Russell Wilson, and Josh Allen.
One of the biggest things that O’Connell did was make sure Cousins was comfortable by scheming more of his options open. With Cousins’s insistence on making throws in easier windows, his 4.3% big-time throw rate in 2022 was created out of necessity. Meanwhile, his 2.9% turnover rate was the highest of his Vikings tenure next to the 2020 season.
After an 8-1 start, Cousins began to get comfortable with O’Connell’s offense, logging a 4.9% big-time throw rate and just a 1.8% turnover-worthy play rate. Cousins’ big-time throw rate dropped to 3% as the Vikings stumbled to a 4-4 record last season. However, he kept his turnovers low with a 2.3% turnover-worthy play rate.
The key was having Cousins make the right read. He did so more often than not while throwing for 2,331 yards, 18 touchdowns, and five interceptions before suffering a torn Achilles in a game against the Green Bay Packers on October 30. Cousins wasn’t the perfect quarterback. Still, he has many traits that O’Connell desired, which might be why O’Connell targeted Darnold in free agency.
There were other attractive names to fill the bridge role for the Vikings, such as Gardner Minshew and Jacoby Brissett. However, Darnold was his top target once Cousins left for Atlanta. A one-year, $10 million contract raised eyebrows, but there are some things that O’Connell may feel he can pull out of Darnold.
Darnold doesn’t have the same career big-time-throw rate. At 3.7%, he would slot just behind Kenny Pickett last season. Darnold’s 4.1% career turnover-worthy-play rate is alarming. It’s similar to last season’s rates for Daniel Jones and Sam Howell. Still, he has an advantage with the Vikings’ infrastructure.
Looking back on his career, Minnesota is likely the best situation Darnold has ever been in. Due to his arm talent, he was a top draft prospect ahead of Allen and Lamar Jackson. However, the New York Jets were a mess when they drafted him.
After relying on Quincy Enunwa as his top target and Adam Gase as his head coach, the Jets traded Darnold to the Carolina Panthers, where he played for Matt Rhule. Rhule currently coaches the Nebraska Cornhuskers, so you know how that situation ended.
After going in and out of the starting lineup for two years, Darnold signed with the San Francisco 49ers as a free agent. Working with Cousins’ other admirer, Shanahan, Darnold got a chance to work in a system similar to the one he played in Minnesota. That should give him the acclimation period Cousins had without going through trials and errors on the field.
This seems like a small thing, but it could have a big impact. O’Connell guided Joshua Dobbs through his first two starts last season, yet even with his rocket scientist background, Dobbs couldn’t fully grasp the passing concepts. The Vikings benched him for Nick Mullens, who had a full year of experience in O’Connell’s system.
O’Connell couldn’t fix Mullens’ turnover problem. Still, Minnesota’s backup threw for 370 yards per game and six touchdowns in his three starts. The Vikings lost an overtime game in Cincinnati and a six-point game to the NFC champion Detroit Lions in two of those outings. Even if Mullens played poorly, the Vikings still had a chance to win two of the three games he started.
This was a theme of the 2022 season, where Cousins tied an NFL record with eight fourth-quarter comebacks and kept Minnesota in just about every game they played. While first-round pick J.J. McCarthy might be physically ready to lead the Vikings, the game’s mental aspect is what may give Darnold the edge as he jumps into a new system.
“Sam’s been great,” O’Connell said during an interview with FanDuel TV’s Kay Adams this week. “The physical talent jumps out to me. His ability to throw the football. He’s really, really refined himself from a technique and fundamentals standpoint. Really playing with great balance and the kind of body position that elite quarterbacks tend to play with.”
McCarthy has been dropping bars that a Swiftie would love, including “I would have waited all day and all two days for you guys” and “I’d run through a brick wall for you.” Still, we already know that O’Connell’s past fling was elite in his eyes, and maybe he sees the same thing in Darnold as he prepares for life without Cousins.
