Vikings

Everyone Needs To Cool It With the 2016 Comparisons

Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Vikings are 4-0 for the first time since the 2016 season. It has been a surprising start. The Vikings have beaten three playoff teams from last season behind Sam Darnold’s arm and a tenacious defense. This Sunday, they head to London to play the New York Jets and their old foe, Aaron Rodgers, before getting a much-needed bye week.

It’s easy to draw comparisons to the 2016 team that started 5-0 before falling apart over the final 11 games of the season, missing the playoffs with an 8-8 record. As they did in 2016, Minnesota has a former first-round quarterback playing way better than expected, and the defense has been flying around, making plays. Because of that and the innate nature of being a Vikings fan, it’s easy to think, It didn’t work out then. Why would it work out now?

However, this 2024 version is better built for the rest of the schedule than the 2016 team.

Let’s start with the most important position. Two days after Minnesota’s third preseason game in 2016, third-year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater suffered a catastrophic knee injury. General manager Rick Spielman felt the Vikings were in a championship window. He didn’t have a viable backup, so he traded a first- and fourth-round pick to the Philadelphia Eagles for Sam Bradford.

Bradford performed admirably in 2016, considering the situation. But because the Vikings brought him in immediately before the season started, the Vikings couldn’t build on Bradford’s game. They asked him to be a game manager, and he threw six touchdowns and had no interceptions in four starts before the Week 6 bye (Shaun Hill started the opener). However, Bradford regressed after the bye. He only threw eight touchdowns and four interceptions over the next nine games.

Bradford alone wasn’t at fault for the sputtering offense. The unit eclipsed 100 yards rushing once during the 5-0 start and didn’t hit that mark again until the season’s final game. That was partially due to injuries to Adrian Peterson and tackles Matt Kalil and Andre Smith. The Vikings brought in left tackle Jake Long, the first-overall pick in the 2008 draft, to fill in. However, Long also went down with an injury, and they lost him for the season. Minnesota’s lack of continuity on the offensive line predictably led to worse results.

The 2016 Vikings had a plus-56 point differential after five games. Similarly, this year’s team is plus-57 through four games. However, they got there much differently.

The 2016 team scored two defensive touchdowns in their season opener against the Tennessee Titans and had two additional punt return touchdowns from Marcus Sherels through five games. Defensive and special teams scores change games, but teams can’t rely on them to score throughout a season. They can help squeak out a win every once in a while. It’s a recipe for disaster when the offense is in a rut for over half the season and the defensive and special teams predictably stop scoring.

Minnesota’s turnover differential was also unsustainable in 2016. They were plus-11 through five games and only gave the ball up once. Protecting the football is essential in the NFL. However, even the best teams suffer from bad turnover luck. The Vikings would turn the ball over 15 times over the final 11 games of the season. That isn’t a terrible number, but they only forced 10 turnovers over the 10 games following their bye before forcing five in their meaningless Week 17 game against the Chicago Bears.

In addition to the instability across the roster and the scoring and turnover margins, the Vikings also dealt with coaching instability. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner resigned after Minnesota lost 20-10 to the Bears on Halloween Night. The Vikings had fallen to 5-2, and Turner quit two days later. Tight ends coach Pat Shurmur replaced him, but the offense had to pivot again.

In case that wasn’t enough, head coach Mike Zimmer suffered an eye injury that reportedly happened when a laminated play sheet cut it. He missed a Thursday night matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, a game the Vikings would lose 17-15.

The 2016 season was bizarre and almost impossible to replicate, but the 2024 Vikings have more going for them than the improbability that they’ll experience another season like 2016. Darnold isn’t just filling in at quarterback, he’s excelling, leading the league in passing touchdowns and quarterback rating. If you think he’s just managing the game, you haven’t seen his 97-yard touchdown pass to Justin Jefferson. Darnold faked a handoff in his end zone before lofting the rainbow pass. Coaches don’t ask game managers to do that.

He isn’t carrying the offense himself, either. With the addition of Aaron Jones, the Vikings have run for over 100 yards every game and average 4.4 yards per carry. All five starters along the offensive line have started every game and are creating more holes than the team has in previous seasons. That gives them balance, stability, and the ability to close games out.

While Minnesota’s defense hasn’t scored any points yet, it is the team’s strength. The Vikings are fourth in scoring defense, complementing their fourth-ranked scoring offense. They are creating turnovers while also stifling some of the highest-powered offenses in the league. The box score stats might not show it yet – they rank 32nd in passing yards allowed. However, metrics like DVOA show that it has the league’s best defense through four games. Expect the yardage to balance out throughout the season.

The Vikings are also winning the turnover battle, sitting at plus-three. They’ve had their share of turnovers (seven). While turnovers negatively impact a team, they show that the team can overcome its mistakes. Their 10 takeaways are second in the league.

Overall, Kevin O’Connell leads a cohesive group. The Vikings are strong in so many aspects that if one phase isn’t pulling its weight, several other phases can pick up the slack. They’ve dealt with injuries, like losing T.J. Hockenson at the start of the season and Jordan Addison for two and a half games. Third-year receiver Jalen Nailor has stepped up in their absence, catching a touchdown in each of the season’s first three games.

O’Connell preaches intentionality. That covers everything from roster-building to practice to game execution. Because of this, the Vikings have been playing good football through four games. It’s also why the team will continue to play good football down the stretch in 2024, even if they face adversity along the way.

Vikings
The Vikings Don’t Have Room For A 2003 Arizona Cardinals Moment
By Chris Schad - Nov 9, 2024
Vikings
Getting Minnesota’s Defense Right Started With Stopping the Run
By John Boyd - Nov 8, 2024
Vikings

How High Is the Ceiling For Minnesota’s Offense?

Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota Vikings fans are half a season into the Sam Darnold experience and boy, has it been … an experience. Darnold’s physical talent has never been in […]

Continue Reading