There’s a 97% chance that the Minnesota Vikings are playing their last game of the season on Sunday, which means conversations about the future start sooner than expected. And when you’re a 7-9 football team limping to the finish of the season without a future quarterback under contract, these conversations aren’t quite as cheery as New Year’s resolutions being shared around the dinner table.
For weeks, Brian Flores and the Minnesota Vikings defense were praised for getting the absolute most out of a unit that lacked major talent. But as the Vikings have dropped three straight and the defense has allowed 27, 30, and 33 points in those games, the dearth of skill has seemingly been exposed. What, then, should the Vikings do with their two most legitimate talents on that side of the ball: Danielle Hunter and Harrison Smith?
The two situations are radically different.
On the one hand, you’ve got Harrison Smith, the second-oldest and longest-tenured Viking, who will turn 35 just before the Super Bowl. He survived last offseason’s player exodus by accepting a reduced salary of $6 million. If he wants to return to the Vikings, he’ll likely have to do so again. OverTheCap.com indicates Smith has no guaranteed money on his deal going forward, which doesn’t give the defense’s elder statesman much leverage. Coming off a year where Smith had zero interceptions through 16 games and ranked a modest 36th amongst safeties on Pro Football Focus, he lacks a strong case to ask for much more than the $8 million he received this season. He may also have a cooling free-agency market at his ripening age.
Through three coaching staffs and four defensive schemes, Smith has seen it all. He’s a chameleon who can thrive as a blitzer, run-stuffer, or center fielder. He’s a legacy player whose talent doesn’t sour quickly and whose leadership offers a level head in a young locker room. Affordability shouldn’t be a major issue.
Two issues could impede Smith’s return, though. The biggest one is retirement. Smith admitted before the season that thoughts of retirement had crept into his mind — an admission he hadn’t made in previous years. His willingness to take a reduced salary to stay also carried the vibes of a beloved player sticking around for one last hurrah, especially against the backdrop of Adam Thielen, who was vocal upon his departure that he had plenty left in the tank and wasn’t interested in a pay cut (though he received one anyway in Carolina). Offseason retirement is a real possibility.
Second, the Vikings have enough ammo at safety that they might see a path to stay young and cheap at the position even if Smith wants to return. Camryn Bynum is a top-20 safety in the league on a rookie deal, and Josh Metellus is a budding star. Plus, the Vikings still have projects like Theo Jackson, Jay Ward, and, yes, Lewis Cine on the roster.
But they can’t use that same logic over on the defensive line, where Hunter’s future hangs in the balance as he concludes the final year of his deal. As it stands today, Patrick Jones and Andre Carter II would be next year’s starting edge rushers… and opposing quarterbacks may never be touched with a four-man rush. Hunter, Marcus Davenport, and D.J. Wonnum are free agents, leaving the Vikings punchless at pass rusher as they head into free agency.
Hunter will hit free agency for the first time having earned over $90 million in his NFL career. Still, contract standoffs with multiple regimes may have damaged any goodwill that could’ve led to a hometown discount. Hunter has disputed his deal for the last three offseasons and has yet to receive any long-term assurances from the Vikings. Now with 32 teams able to bid for his services, Hunter isn’t likely to return to Minnesota without receiving a hefty raise over multiple years. In his last four fully healthy seasons, Hunter has finished top 10 in the league in pressures. After two consecutive healthy campaigns, he’s alleviated any concern about his season-ending injuries in 2020 and 2021.
Nobody would be surprised to see Hunter get $25 million a year. That’s a hefty check to write, considering Justin Jefferson will also need an eight-figure yearly salary, one that starts with a three.
Minnesota’s decision at quarterback may impact their choices on defense. If the Vikings opt to ride with a rookie first-round pick, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah may elect to re-invest the previously lucrative quarterback salary back into the defense, which would fit with his no-tanking ideology. But that scenario could also push Hunter and Smith out the door if they aren’t interested in waiting for a rookie QB to develop.
This writer puts Smith’s return at about 45% for next year and 25% for Hunter. Enjoy the game on Sunday because it could be the final chance to see these two fan favorites in purple.
