Vikings

How Do the Vikings Navigate A Seller's Market In the Draft?

Photo Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Vikings’ quarterback conundrum continues to be an all-consuming black hole in the middle of my sports-loving psyche. Join me as I attempt to make sense of this uncertainty again before it tears my brain apart from the inside out like an illithid parasite.

I’ve been on a kick the past few weeks of writing about Minnesota’s quarterback situation. Two weeks ago, I wrote a piece examining the potential organizational blueprints for obtaining and nurturing a young QB. I used C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love as examples of first-year starters turned playoff QBs. Last week, I dove into the bridge quarterback market, evaluating the guys who could help onboard a potential hotshot rookie QB.

Both pieces operated under the premise that the Vikings could get a young quarterback worth grooming. But with a quarterback market that may have a disparity in supply and demand, how realistic (and expensive) is a potential move for a quarterback in the first place?

It’s barely February. We’ve got a long way to go between now and draft day. We haven’t ridden the NFL Draft Industrial Complex’s rollercoaster of risers and fallers. We haven’t even overreacted to a player’s S2 score or tiny baby hands yet. I’m sure things will get wacky over the next few months; they always do.

There’s a clear top-3 QBs among the NFL draft cognoscenti: Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels. Then, there’s a reasonably significant dropoff from those three to the next tier of potential Round 1 guys like Bo Nix, J.J. McCarthy, and Michael Penix. But we all know how this goes. Between now and April, all three of those guys will get their dose of Hendon Hooker-esque Round 1 buzz. The primary reason that’ll happen is because the market is… pretty desperate.

More than any in recent history, it feels like half the league is looking for a new young quarterback this year. Minnesota is one of many teams who would desperately love to get their hands on a legitimate signal-caller of the future to develop. And with more QB-needy teams, the asking price becomes higher for anyone looking to make their way up the board. It’s a seller’s market at the top of this draft, with no shortage of buyers.

The top three teams in this draft are all candidates to select one of the top three quarterbacks.

The Chicago Bears hold the Carolina Panthers’ first-overall pick because of the Bryce Young trade, and they’re currently favored to move on from Justin Fields and take a quarterback. The Bears may swing a trade on draft weekend, but it’s more likely to send Fields to his next franchise. The only silver lining for Minnesota is that a Fields trade would likely remove a team from the trade-up sweepstakes.

The Washington Commanders have a new head coach and general manager, and Sam Howell did not provide them with enough optimism for them not to take a quarterback at pick No. 2. Out of all the teams in the top three, Washington feels the least likely to pick up the phone on draft night.

Finally, the New England Patriots are also interested in a quarterback. After a disappointing carousel of mediocrity in the post-Tom Brady era, I doubt Robert Kraft loves the idea of beginning Jerod Mayo’s tenure as head coach with Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe under center.

The top three guys may be gone before we can blink.

However, New England feels like a pivot point. With their roster as talent-poor as it is, a team could make them an offer they can’t refuse to slide into the top three. And while Chicago seems primed to move on from Fields, they could secure another king’s ransom if they decided to keep Fields and trade the first-overall pick for the second year in a row.

S,o if the bidding war starts, who are the suitors?

The New York Giants are reeling one year after the disastrous Daniel Jones extension, and picking at No. 6 could be a prime spot for a team looking to trade back while still securing a premier talent at the top of the draft. They’d be a prime candidate if their buyer’s remorse on Jones is strong enough.

The Atlanta Falcons are picking at No. 7, and they’re another team whose whole offseason also hinges on the quarterback. Their offense is about as talented as it comes, and they could be a quarterback away from something special under new head coach Raheem Morris. Atlanta feels like a prime landing spot for Kirk Cousins if he leaves Minnesota. Or maybe they will court Justin Fields if the Bears move on from him. If they find themselves enamored with a young QB, could they sell the farm to move ahead?

The Denver Broncos are in quarterback hell after the Russell Wilson disaster and would love a reset at the position. They’d be a serious threat if not for their lack of draft capital due to the disastrous Wilson trade.

The Las Vegas Raiders crumbled down the stretch due to terrible quarterback play, and they seem unlikely to bring back Jimmy Garoppolo or Aidan O’Connell for another year. It doesn’t get much more reckless than Las Vegas, and they could take a gamble on a young player to change their fortunes.

Then there are the teams that sit on the fringe of the trade-up discussion despite their needs at quarterback.

Derek Carr was a tremendous disappointment for the New Orleans Saints. With the big money involved, though, they’ll probably stand pat for another season. The Seattle Seahawks at No. 16 seem to be souring on Geno Smith and could be interested in a change. But they lack additional ammo in a potential trade and are down their second-rounder after the Leonard Williams trade. Finally, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers felt destined for a quarterback last preseason, but they won too many games to be realistic candidates.

But as you can see through this exercise, there’s a massive supply/demand issue here.

By my modest evaluation, I still counted 11 teams with a major quarterback need: Chicago, Washington, New England, New York, Atlanta, Minnesota, Denver, Vegas, Seattle, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay. That’s a third of the entire league. We have between three and six players to fulfill that demand, and you only feel great about the top three.

If you’re feeling your anxiety rising for Minnesota’s chance of getting their preferred guy, welcome to my hell.

In light of this, it’s easy to see why some may just want to re-sign Cousins and kick the can down the road another year. But others will agree with me that this franchise can’t afford to keep ignoring the future of this position at the risk of missing. If Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O’Connell have identified their guy they want to be the future of this franchise, they can’t afford to let him slip away again. These are exactly the types of stressful situations they get paid a lot of money to handle, and it’s up to them to close the deal.

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