The 3-0 Minnesota Vikings enter Packers Week as early-season darlings. Brian Flores’ defense just turned second-year phenom C.J. Stroud into a pumpkin, and Sam Darnold leads the NFL in touchdown passes with eight. Despite the overwhelming success on both sides of the ball through three weeks, there remains a glaring Achilles heel for this team: the interior offensive line.
Through three weeks, the Vikings rank 24th across the league in pass attempts, which is abnormal considering that they entered 2024 with the second-most pass attempts over the past two seasons. Even though the offense is scaling back its intentionality behind slinging the pill, right guard Ed Ingram and center Garrett Bradbury are tied for allowing the 10th-most pressures by all NFL offensive linemen, according to Pro Football Focus.
But instead of having Minnesota’s reoccurring shortcomings on the interior of its offensive line derail drives, Kevin O’Connell has helped neutralize this weak spot offensively by demonstrating a commitment to his run game, which was few and far between throughout O’Connell’s first two seasons as Minnesota’s head coach.
So far this season, the Vikings rank sixth across the NFL in 21-personnel frequency — which is two running backs, one tight end, and two receivers — at 15%. This 15% frequency is a noticeable uptick because the Vikings were previously in 21-personnel on just 6.8% last year and 8.3% in 2022. When the Vikings are in 21-personnel, they have the sixth-best EPA/rush in the NFL at 0.3. According to Sumer Sports, when O’Connell removes C.J. Ham and instead inserts a second tight end (usually Josh Oliver) for a 12-personnel look, the Vikings have the seventh-best EPA/rush in the NFL at 0.1.
Minnesota in 21- or 12-personnel on 35.4% of their offensive plays this season. When they deviate from O’Connell’s 11-personnel base offense, they’re one of the better rushing offenses throughout the league. That deviation from O’Connell’s beloved 11-personnel is noteworthy because the Vikings are a bottom-half (19th) rushing offense with a -0.08 EPA/rush when they’re in 11-personnel. The commitment to more 21- and/or 12-personnel is largely why they rank 14th in rushing attempts (78), 13th in rushing yards (375), and 10th in yards per carry (4.8). Minnesota’s running game has never ranked higher in any of these three categories since O’Connell became head coach in 2022.
O’Connell is helping neutralize Minnesota’s biggest weakness on the interior of their offensive line by establishing the run early and often. On early downs (first and second), the Vikings rank seventh across the league with 128 rushing yards. Their early down EPA/rush of 0.08 ranks fifth across the NFL. The addition of Aaron Jones plays a critical role in O’Connell’s newfound trust in his running game.
By entrusting Jones (and periodically Ty Chandler) to churn out tough yardage on early downs, the Vikings can create advantageous passing situations for Darnold and his interior offensive line. By forcing opposing defenses to honor Minnesota’s run game, Darnold has become one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL off of play action this season. With Darnold, the Vikings have the third-most pass attempts off of play action in the NFL, trailing only the Detroit Lions (29) and Tennessee Titans (25).
Here’s how Darnold fares in play action through three weeks:
- 15 for 23
- 260 yards
- Three touchdowns
- 143.1 passer rating (best in the NFL)
As long as the Vikings have a healthy Aaron Jones, look for O’Connell to continue to create favorable second and third downs by running the ball out of heavier personnel sets. That should philosophically continue to help protect Darnold from opposing defensive fronts and allow him to generate explosives off of play action.
