The 2024 NFL free-agency period is underway, and the state of the Minnesota Vikings has drastically changed.
Veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins, who started for the Vikings for six seasons, signed a lucrative deal with the Atlanta Falcons that ended his tenure in Minnesota.
It’s not a complete surprise to anyone paying attention, and one would assume general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah had been preparing for this scenario for some time. Adofo-Mensah got to work adding some remarkable players on the defensive side of the ball, including linebackers Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, and Blake Cashman.
Not long after that, he moved to the offensive side of the ball and added running back Aaron Jones and quarterback Sam Darnold.
Still, despite acquiring Darnold, questions remain about the quarterback position and Minnesota’s plans.
In the NFL, everything is tied to the quarterback. Once teams have their franchise guy, they make win-now moves, trying to take advantage of the strong play they already have at the most valuable position in the game. Those who don’t typically make decisions with the future in mind so they can eventually find their franchise quarterback.
Cousins’ departure puts the Vikings in a position they haven’t been in since 2014. They need a franchise quarterback. While Darnold has shown flashes of potential in his career as a starter, the one-year, $10 million contract he signed suggests he is serving as a bridge to help the Vikings transition into a new era.
The popular opinion on the Vikings is that they will trade up in this year’s draft to the top of the first round to grab one of the premier quarterbacks available. Minnesota has been linked to players like Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy. Go ahead and do a quick Google search for an NFL Mock Draft. It won’t take long before you find one in which the Vikings either draft one at No. 11 overall, the pick they currently hold, or trade up toward the top five and grab one of those highly. coveted quarterbacks.
The Vikings are in a bit of a weird position. On the one hand, Adofo-Mensah has helped create an excellent situation for a franchise quarterback to step into. Minnesota has:
- The best wide receiver in the NFL in Justin Jefferson.
- Two great offensive tackles in Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill.
- An elite receiving tight end in T.J. Hockenson.
- An excellent up-and-coming No. 2 receiver in Jordan Addison.
- And now an explosive veteran running back in Jones.
It doesn’t get much better than that for a rookie quarterback.
However, the Vikings will undoubtedly have to give up a significant haul to move up to the necessary position to grab their guy. It will cost them at least one first-round pick in addition to the No. 11-overall pick they already own.
If the Vikings make this move, it will put more pressure on Adofo-Mensah to nail each of the remaining draft picks. Instead, the Vikings could trade back in the first round.
Excuse me?
Yes, it’s a little bit out of left field. But remember that the Vikings likely won’t be contending for a playoff spot this year. The Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers appear to have a stranglehold on the NFC North division in the immediate future. Elsewhere in the NFC, the Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, and Atlanta Falcons look like they are a clear step above the Vikings.
Minnesota should prepare to contend in 2025 or even further into the future when the current group of dominant teams sees their Super Bowl windows close. That would be the perfect time for the Vikings to pounce.
If the Vikings trade back in the first round, they can continue to add assets that Adofo-Mensah can use to rebuild the roster for 2025 and beyond.
So, essentially, a trade back in the first round of this year’s draft would be punting on the season. The result is likely a low win total in 2024 that would put the Vikings high in the draft order again in 2025. At this point, with the assets they acquired from trading back in 2024, the Vikings would be in a terrific position to trade up and get their guy.
Is this idea realistic? Sure it is. But it’s unlikely to happen for many reasons. First, Vikings ownership would not be fond of what would essentially be tanking for an entire season. Plus, a move like this would immediately put Adofo-Mensah on the hot seat.
The Vikings also have to consider Justin Jefferson. The face of the franchise is already under the microscope for not yet signing a long-term contract extension to stay in Minnesota. Wasting a full season in the prime of his career would not help.
It’s not very practical at this point. But in a few years, Vikings fans might look back on the 2024 draft and wish Adofo-Mensah had traded back and put a little more time into this rebuild. Trading up in the first round will be an expensive decision—and a costly mistake if the quarterback Adofo-Mensah selects doesn’t work out.
Trading back would give the Vikings more ammo and keep them in a better position should their next swing at a quarterback not work out.
Adofo-Mensah’s decisions in the next couple of months will determine how everyone judges his tenure. All of his work to build a terrific structure for a franchise quarterback will go to waste if he whiffs on the pick.
Maybe, just maybe, trading back in the first round of the draft, not trading up, will best position the Vikings for long-term success.
