For Minnesota Vikings fans, the biggest news coming out of the NFL Combine wasn’t about any of the draft prospects. Instead, it was about Kirk Cousins. It started with press conferences from head coach Kevin O’Connell and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah affirming that they wanted to bring Kirk back — for the right price.
As the week heated up, so did the conversation around Cousins’ looming free agency. Insiders, including Dianna Russini, Adam Schefter, Dan Graziano, and Jeremy Fowler, seem to be in agreement that the two biggest suitors for Cousins are the Vikings and Atlanta Falcons. Here is what Schefter said on The Pat McAfee Show, starting at about 2:15 in the video below:
It’s clear that Atlanta has a strong interest in Cousins, but how do the reporters know that? The answer is something O’Connell alluded to in his on-air interview with NFL Network’s Rich Eisen and Daniel Jeremiah:
When asked about Cousins, O’Connell mentioned that the combine gave others around the league the opportunity to have conversations “whether they’re supposed to be or not.” He was referring to the NFL’s worst-kept combine secret — that it allegedly acts as a convention for teams to discuss impending free agents with those players’ agents despite not technically being allowed to do so, per NFL rules.
What exactly is tampering?
The NFL has a legal tampering period, the parameters for which this NFL.com article outlines. That period starts two days before free agency, meaning the tampering period begins at 4 p.m. ET on March 11 this year. The following parameters apply:
During the two-day period, all teams have the right to negotiate “all aspects of an NFL player contract” with the certified agent of an impending free agent. Figures can be exchanged on a deal, but nothing can be agreed to or announced before the start of free agency on Wednesday.
However, the process begins well before that period. Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio is the most flippant of all the NFL insiders when talking about tampering, and this article gives a good primer. The gist is that agents and teams will tamper by pretending they are meeting about another client the agent has on the team he is talking to. It’s even easier to tamper at the combine than over the phone because teams do not need to report every conversation that happens in private rooms and Indianapolis bars.
Based on reporting from Florio and others, it’s almost certain that every team in the league, including the Vikings, engages in this practice to some extent. The NFL seems to turn a blind eye to this practice. While there have been cases of teams being punished for tampering, the instances referred to in the punishment occurred outside of the combine. The most famous recent case resulted in the Miami Dolphins getting penalized for tampering with Tom Brady and Sean Payton, outlined below:
While teams weren’t punished for it, there has been a long history of potential tampering surrounding highly coveted QBs. The Vikings were accused of tampering as they pursued Brett Favre. Sean McVay reportedly “ran into” Matthew Stafford in Cabo before the Los Angeles Rams agreed to a trade for him:
At the very least, teams are having similar conversations about Cousins with his agent, Mike McCartney, which is why we see so many rumors about his status. But does that actually hurt the Vikings? Let’s take a look at the potential impact below.
Tampering helps players understand their market
Contact with other teams helps the players establish how the NFL market values them. Last offseason provided excellent examples of Vikings players who could use this information. The team approached Eric Kendricks, Adam Thielen, and Harrison Smith about pay cuts and ended up releasing Kendricks and Thielen.
Thielen had a $11.8 million base salary in 2023, and he was able to determine that his market was bigger than the pay cut the Vikings offered him. He was proven right. Thielen eventually got a three-year, $25 million deal from the Carolina Panthers, including $10 million in Year 1. The Vikings were almost certainly asking Thielen to take more than $2 million off of his 2023 salary, so taking the money from the Panthers made clear financial sense.
On the other hand, it seems like Smith couldn’t beat the re-structure the Vikings offered. He got $8 million in 2023 with $2 million in incentives. Among the 2023 free-agent safeties, only 26-year-old Jessie Bates got more than $7.5 million per year on a contract. Based on that, it’s doubtful that the aging Smith would have been able to beat the deal the Vikings offered him in free agency, a detail his agent likely picked up on at the combine.
So, teams tampering with cousins hurts the Vikings, right?
Not necessarily. While Cousins’ market appears robust, the reporting about the situation before the combine indicated that the Vikings weren’t willing to budge on the guarantee structure they were offering. At that point, Cousins needs to figure out what other teams are willing to guarantee to decide whether or not he will take the deal the Vikings are offering. To do that, McCartney needs to have some contact with teams.
Look at WR Mike Evans, also represented by McCartney, who just signed an extension with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. McCartney was able to scope out Evans’ market and determined that the Bucs were offering Evans the best deal. In this situation, the tampering helped the Bucs keep their WR.
In Kevin O’Connell‘s NFL Network interview above, he mentioned that Cousins would always undergo a thorough process. Based on his history, that’s no surprise. In this scenario, all the potential conversations at the combine did was speed up Cousins’ timeline of figuring out how much other teams value him. That benefits the Vikings because of their salary cap benefit from extending Cousins before his contract voids on March 13. The Bucs got a similar benefit from extending Evans before he hit free agency.
Perhaps surprisingly, the Vikings and Cousins benefit from the conversations that likely occurred at the combine. Cousins gets to know his market a little early and can plan to take the deal that’s best for him, which means he can answer Minnesota before the window for negotiating with other players and before his contract voids. This leaves the Vikings, whether the answer is yes or no, a clear idea of what their cap will look like moving forward, which can help in negotiations with players like Danielle Hunter and Justin Jefferson.
As fans, we likely won’t find out Cousins’ decision until sometime around next Wednesday. For the team, though, the head start will be crucial as they navigate free agency.
