Late July and early August are the quintessential time to identify opportunities to exploit the gambling and gaming markets for the upcoming NFL season. Whether you’re grinding Best Ball drafts, preparing for your home league fantasy draft, or wagering on season-long bets, the time is now to plant a few flags and watch the money pile up over the next several months.
That’s why I’m ready to acknowledge that Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold has serious potential to be a difference-maker as an 18th and final-round pick in your Underdog Best Ball Mania V drafts this summer. Minnesota’s opening-day QB1 is barely being drafted at the moment, as his ADP (average draft position) sits at 214.9 out of a total 216 picks in BBMV drafts.
Yes, the Vikings traded up to 10th overall to select J.J. McCarthy in April’s draft. But everything coming out of TCO Performance Center over the past few months has indicated that Minnesota intends to give Darnold the keys to Kevin O’Connell‘s offense while McCarthy takes a redshirt campaign. With Nick Mullens still on the roster, there’s a viable scenario where McCarthy isn’t even the backup on Sundays this fall. That would provide McCarthy with ample runway to get acclimated with O’Connell’s scheme — the same scheme that ranks second across the NFL in pass attempts since KOC took over in 2022.
Could the Vikings eventually give the reins to McCarthy if/when the season becomes lost in November or December? Absolutely. Could Minnesota’s defense take a noticeable step forward in Year 2 under Brian Flores and play meaningful games into January with Darnold still at the helm? No question.
That proverbial fork in the road of this upcoming Vikings season makes me want Darnold even more as a late-round flier in BBMV this season. I’m much more inclined to believe that Flores’ defense will improve on their debut campaign, which saw Minnesota rank 13th across the NFL in points allowed. Make no mistake: if/when the Vikings have a top-10 scoring defense this season, that means they’re playing meaningful games at the start of the new calendar year with Darnold under center and McCarthy still holding a clipboard.
If you’re playing in fantasy football’s largest Best Ball tournament, you already know that you must effectively zig when 672,672 total participants are zagging in BBMV. Currently, McCarthy is being drafted ahead of Darnold with an ADP of 209.1. And there’s an opportunity to get Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones, and T.J. Hockenson‘s quarterback (when he returns from the PUP) as your final pick in the 18th round.
The passing volume alone in the Vikings offense (again, second-most attempts across the NFL since 2022) justifies Darnold as your QB3 in Best Ball. However, volume alone isn’t what makes Minnesota’s starting quarterback valuable in fantasy (unless you’re named Jaren Hall). Last season, the Vikings had QB1 performances (top-12) in 11 of 17 games with three different quarterbacks. Let’s not forget that the 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year missed eight games (including his “return” at Las Vegas in Week 14) last season.
Here’s how the QB1 performances shook out in 2023 for Minnesota:
- Kirk Cousins: six
- Mullens: three
- Joshua Dobbs: two (including his relief appearance at Atlanta in Week 9)
For context, fantasy’s clearcut top quarterback, Josh Allen, recorded QB1 performances in 13 of 17 games last season. If Darnold can closely mirror the type of QB1 efficiency from Minnesota’s various quarterbacks last season, then he’s a certified scale-tipper for all the right reasons in BBMV this season. Shoot, there’s an argument to be made that, with better fortune on the injury front with Jefferson this season, Minnesota could improve upon their fantasy QB1 performances in 11 of 17 games with Darnold in 2024.
At his current price tag of seemingly the second-to-last pick, how can you afford not to throw Darnold’s name on your 18th-round lottery ticket in BBMV drafts?
