The news of J.J. McCarthy’s season-ending meniscus surgery dashed the hopes of many Minnesota Vikings fans. Is that rational? Perhaps not. But we’re Vikings fans, and we’ll be this way forever or until the curse is lifted — whichever comes first.
Still, it helps to remove oneself from fandom for a moment and expound logically about the upcoming season. What does a disappointing 2024 season look like for the Vikings? How about the best-case scenario? What is the most likely outcome?
We know the team. Let’s look at the schedule.
I’ve split the 17 games into three buckets: likely wins, likely losses, and coin flips. It’s an inexact science and, of course, weighted by opinion. Still, it’s a digestible way to parse out the schedule.
Likely Wins
Week 1 @NYG, Week 11 @TEN, Week 13 vs. ARI, Week 15 vs. CHI
I fully expect Brian Flores to have a diabolical game plan for Daniel Jones and Will Levis. The Arizona Cardinals can be dangerous with a healthy Kyler Murray, but their cornerbacks won’t stand a chance against Minnesota’s receivers. The Chicago Bears at home? Have some pride. An extra day of rest leading up to a Monday night game against the Bears and their rookie quarterback should be a win for a solid Vikings team with an on-paper advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball.
Likely Losses
Week 2 vs. SF, Week 3 vs. HOU, Week 8 @LAR, Week 16 @SEA
The San Francisco 49ers game was also a likely loss last season, but the Vikings eked out a win. San Francisco has some injury issues, and All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams is holding out, but I expect them to be a strong contender again this season. I also expect the Houston Texans to be one of the best teams in the NFL this season, led by an explosive passing game. The other two games fall on short weeks for the Vikings.
Teams will likely win games they shouldn’t or lose games they shouldn’t, especially in the NFL. For this exercise, we’ll assume those games balance out to 4-4 either way.
The real variance comes in the nine games that I think could really go either way. What is the biggest factor for the Vikings that could swing these games in their favor? Offensive balance is overrated at times in terms of run/pass rate. However, efficiency is crucial in both the run and pass game.
We know that Kevin O’Connell can manufacture a strong passing game on the whiteboard if his quarterback can play on time. Sam Darnold will have a lot of help from an above-average offensive line and one of the best collection of pass-catchers in the league. Darnold’s play will likely fall between that of Kirk Cousins in 2023 and the Dobbs/Hall/Mullens carousel. Therefore, the passing game should be relatively effective if he plays a full season.
The 2023 Vikings were 31st in turnover differential (-11), which is a volatile stat that tends to progress to the mean following a season so disastrous. Therefore, we won’t weigh that too heavily here.
Minnesota’s rushing offense should improve with the addition of Aaron Jones, and I expect O’Connell and company to commit to it more consistently this season. So, in what remaining matchups may the Vikings be able to find an advantage running the ball?
There’s no world in which Minnesota wins all nine of these games to finish 13-4, but 10-7 is not off the table.
The Coin Flips
Over the remaining nine games, the Vikings face seven opponents. To help determine the range of outcomes, we’ll classify these as “losable” or “winnable.”
Week 5 vs. NYJ in London – Losable (4-5)
The Jets have an abundance of talent, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, and a strong skill group with which they’ve surrounded Aaron Rodgers. New York’s defense ranked third in EPA/play in 2023 and returns C.J. Mosley, Quincy Williams, and Quinnen Williams up the middle. They also have Sauce Gardner, who is arguably the best cornerback in football. The neutral field and the havoc Minnesota’s defense can cause should make this one interesting. Still, this is ultimately a team that could make the Vikings one-dimensional on offense. Therefore, it could be disastrous if Darnold plays from behind against this unit.
Week 9 vs. IND – Winnable (5-5)
The Indianapolis Colts will visit U.S. Bank Stadium with flashbacks of the greatest regular-season comeback in NFL history. While it may be a run defense that the Vikings can expose, the real mismatch comes in the secondary, and I expect some fireworks from Minnesota’s offense. Indianapolis’ defense ranked 19th in EPA/rush in 2023 as nose tackle Grover Stewart missed six games. They ranked ninth in 2022 when Stewart was fully healthy, but the Colts will be wary of crowding the box against the Vikings’ offense.
Week 10 @JAX – Winnable (6-5)
Andre Cisco and Tyson Campbell lead a solid secondary, but the Jacksonville Jaguars’ rush defense ranked 23rd in EPA/rush last season. The addition of Arik Armstead is valuable, but I don’t think it moves the needle for this group. The Vikings match up well here.
Week 12 @CHI – Losable (6-6)
Chicago’s defensive line is a weak spot, barring a big leap from Gervon Dexter Sr. and Zacch Pickens. Therefore, the Vikings should find consistent success running the football. However, it’s a division game, and it’s at Soldier Field. Caleb Williams looks great in preseason and has a lot of weapons. Tyson Bagent could be under center, and I’d still feel the same way. Weird stuff tends to happen when Minnesota visits the Bears.
Week 14 vs. ATL – Losable (6-7)
I’d hate to lose to Kirk Cousins, too, but the Atlanta Falcons have a strong roster coming into this season. They ranked first in EPA/rush allowed last season and have added Matt Judon and Justin Simmons in the previous week. All of their weapons on the offensive side of the ball behind a solid O-line will be difficult to stop if healthy.
Week 4 @GB, Week 17 vs. GB – Losable/Winnable (7-8)
Jordan Love will have to sustain his level of play from the second half of last season for this team to make another deep run, and he just might. Green Bay’s defense ranked 22nd and 24th in rush and pass EPA/play, respectively, in 2023. However, the Green Bay Packers have replaced defensive coordinator Joe Barry with Jeff Hafley. Green Bay’s defense is a bit unknown at this point, but they could see significant improvement with the growth of some of their young defenders. Kenny Clark and Rashan Gary highlight the Packers’ front seven, a solid group but far from the league’s best. Therefore, the Vikings should be able to win enough reps in the running game to sustain a balanced offense.
Week 7 vs. DET, Week 18 @DET – Losable/Winnable (8-9)
The Detroit Lions have a great roster. However, the Vikings played two competitive games against them last season with Nick Mullens under center, and Mullens averaged 403.5 yards in those two games. If Minnesota’s quarterback(s) can throw fewer than six interceptions over their two meetings this season, the Vikings should be able to steal one. After adding nose tackle D.J. Reader, Detroit’s run defense will be extremely difficult to exploit.
Swing Games
Any given Sunday! Regardless of how the Vikings match up on paper with these teams, Minnesota will lose winnable games and vice versa.
They could lose to Indianapolis and Jacksonville if those teams get hot at the right time. Anthony Richardson could solidify himself as a top-15 quarterback. Trevor Lawrence has led a 27-0 playoff comeback. It’s easy to picture one or both of these games slipping away if the offense makes mistakes.
That puts our low-end outcome at 6-11, a game worse than Minnesota’s 7-10 record last season. That would mean a more favorable draft position in 2025 and the distinct possibility that the Vikings trade some players at the deadline for a few extra picks.
However, the Vikings could sweep the Bears this season. Chicago is much improved from last season, but Minnesota’s defense is also better. Chicago’s strong secondary may be able to take away some big plays in the passing game. However, if the run game is dynamic enough, things could easily break the Vikings’ way.
Atlanta is also an unproven team with head coach Raheem Morris steering the ship, and it’s tough to know how Cousins will look coming back from his Achilles injury. The team has some high-caliber players on the defensive side of the ball. However, most of them could regress due to age this season. Also, if the higher-end outcome has played out by Week 14, the offense is likely playing very well. The Vikings have the weapons to beat any defense with the pass if everything is in sync, and we can expect T.J. Hockenson back from injury by this time.
That’s puts our higher-end outcome at 10-7! Not bad.
A high draft pick always sounds nice. However, if this team can see some internal growth paired with positive outcomes and replicable processes, that will set the stage for McCarthy’s return even better.
The growth and expansion of the run game and solid play from the defense could lift this team to the playoffs.
