We’ve officially reached the point where the Minnesota Vikings are staring at the organizational fork in the road. Kirk Cousins hits unrestricted free agency for the first time since joining the Vikings in 2018, and the remaining (non-draft) contingency plans are becoming less desirable by the hour.
On Sunday, Baker Mayfield re-upped with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Russell Wilson joined the Pittsburgh Steelers on a one-year, $1.2 million deal. Admittedly, I’m one of the last human beings on the planet who would support Wilson quarterbacking my favorite ball club. But Wilson’s seemingly non-existent cap hit would’ve been mighty enticing in Minnesota as the post-Cousins bridge.
It should go without saying, but I have no inside intel on the happenings at TCO Performance Center surrounding the contractual standoff between Cousins and the Vikings. So consider this a feeble attempt using the information we have.
The market for Cousins appears to be down to the Vikings and the Atlanta Falcons. Cousins is set to enter the market and meet with team(s) that don’t reside in the Twin Cities. Minnesota reportedly wants Cousins back, and they had every opportunity to accommodate his contract desires before free agency opened. So, let’s dissect the possible reasons why the Vikings allowed Cousins to test the market before committing to him.
The Vikings have been operating from a position of strength throughout this process. While Atlanta’s young offensive talent, including Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson, is intriguing, they don’t come remotely close to replicating Minnesota’s offensive ecosystem of Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, Jordan Addison, Christian Darrisaw, and Brian O’Neill. Not to mention that Kevin O’Connell provides continuity and sustained success for Cousins. And by going to Atlanta, Cousins would be embarking on an entirely new situation with a first-time offensive coordinator and play-caller in Zac Robinson. The Vikings know their situation is superior, and Cousins likely also does.
With this mutually known superiority when comparing the two environments for Cousins, why would Minnesota be the first to blink? That leads me to believe that the Vikings are taking an approach with Cousins’ free agency akin to the Right of First Refusal.
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and the powers that be have probably initiated contract discussions with low-ball, team-friendly offers, hoping that Minnesota’s organizational advantage over Atlanta (and the rest of the market) would compel Cousins to sign. But Minnesota’s decision-makers likely always knew that Cousins wouldn’t sign off on any short-term, team-friendly deal without seeing what the market had in store for him.
Because of this possible dynamic, the Vikings are betting on themselves and the market they’ve predicted for Cousins. Instead of bending the knee, Minnesota is allowing the market to set the price point on the 36-year-old quarterback coming off a season-ending Achilles injury—the same quarterback who has been part of just a single playoff win throughout his career. Instead of being the first to show their cards at the proverbial poker table, the Vikings are allowing Atlanta to give Cousins their best offer before they do.
In this scenario, the Vikings would know exactly what they’re up against regarding Cousins’ services. If the Falcons offer Cousins a contract that doesn’t align with Minnesota’s preferred length, guarantees, and/or structure, so be it. But if Atlanta’s best offer is in the ballpark of what Minnesota is comfortable with, then the Purple and Gold hope their advantageous situation for Cousins wins out.
That way, Minnesota can finally decide (once and for all?) if the juice is worth the squeeze for the polarizing quarterback. The market will determine that decision, not Cousins and his representation, which is probably how Minnesota has preferred it goes all along.
To reiterate: I know just as much as you do regarding what’s actually happening behind closed doors at TCO Performance Center. But I’ve always felt that Jefferson is the biggest wild card in this entire Cousins free-agency situation. If you judge by his many media appearances since the season ended, it sure sounds like Jefferson would prefer Cousins to be his quarterback for the foreseeable future. Considering that the Vikings have seemingly built their entire organization around the All-Pro wide receiver, this gives Jefferson considerable leverage.
What happens when Jefferson goes to the front office and says that getting him to agree to a contract extension would be difficult without Cousins? In that case, can the Vikings really afford to jeopardize Priority No. 1: securing Jefferson’s future in Minnesota?
There’s been a lot of chatter about Minnesota’s perceived inability to pay top dollar for both a quarterback and a receiver. Essentially, Skoldiers have been told that the Vikings have to make a choice between Cousins and Jefferson. However, that’s not the case.
In 2024, the Los Angeles Rams and Buffalo Bills are slated to do just that.
Matthew Stafford‘s $49.5 million cap hit next season is the fifth-largest among NFL quarterbacks. Josh Allen‘s $47.1 cap hit is the sixth-largest. Cooper Kupp‘s $29.8 million cap hit is the fourth-highest among NFL wide receivers. Stefon Diggs‘ $27.9 million cap hit is the sixth-highest.
If two teams that are realistically pursuing Super Bowls can pay top dollar for their respective offensive battery, why can’t the Vikings? Especially considering that Cousins likely wouldn’t command the astronomical cap hits that accompany Stafford and Allen. Rest assured, if Jefferson feels strongly about playing with Cousins, it’s not lost on him that other teams are breaking the bank for both quarterback and receiver.
Not that you — or anyone else, for that matter — asked, but I would not be surprised if Jefferson turns up the heat while going to bat for Cousins, his preferred quarterback. Let’s not forget, in his first game back from a hamstring injury this past season, a non-Cousins quarterback named Josh Dobbs quite literally sent Jefferson to a Las Vegas medical center by putting him on the receiving end of a hospital ball.
Because Minnesota has shown no interest in messing with fire regarding a Jefferson extension, I expect Cousins to re-up with the Vikings and be their starting quarterback in 2024, possibly 2025.
