The Minnesota Vikings last faced off against the New York Giants in the Wild Card round after the regular season two years ago. Like me, I’m sure many of you still have memories of Daniel Jones running all over Ed Donatell’s defense and Kirk Cousins throwing short of the sticks to T.J. Hockenson on fourth-and-eight burned into your brain. With all that’s happened in between, it feels like an eternity ago. However, the Vikings have only played 17 games since Daniel Jones took a knee to end Minnesota’s season.
Minnesota and the Giants had a similar label heading into that game: frauds. They proved those accusations correct after the Philadelphia Eagles dismantled the Giants a week later. This year, the Vikings and Giants face another similar accusation: bad. Prognosticators don’t expect either team to contend. They opened in Vegas with an over/under of 5.5 wins, and both teams sit at 6.5.
That’s not to say the teams have the same outlook beyond 2022. I think most Vikings fans, including myself, believe the team has positioned itself much better than the Giants moving forward. Still, it’s an interesting parallel.
Many things have changed for the Vikings and Giants teams since January 2023. Each team had 47 players take snaps in the Wild Card matchup, and, coincidentally, each team has since moved on from 27 of those 47 players. Both staffs (Kevin O’Connell and Kwesi Adofo-Mensah for the Vikings, Brain Daboll and Joe Schoen for the Giants) are entering their third season with their respective teams. Each staff has much to do to prove their value in 2024 and beyond. Let’s look at the decisions each has made over the past two years and see if we can learn something about team building from it.
quarterback Questions
In the 2022 offseason, each team faced a quarterback problem. The Vikings had Kirk Cousins, who was entering the last year of his deal; the Giants had Daniel Jones, an impending free agent. Neither the front office nor the coaching staff had chosen the quarterback they were stuck with, but both had the option to move on.
The Vikings opted not to extend Kirk, signaling their intent to move on. He signed with the Atlanta Falcons this offseason. The Giants could have franchised tagged Daniel Jones, an option the Vikings didn’t have with Cousins. However, they decided they would rather tag Saquon Barkley. Instead, they extended Jones on a four-year, $160 million deal that allowed them to get out after two years for $82 million in total cost.
Jones got injured in 2023, but his contract had become a disaster before that point. He threw only two TDs to six INTs in the first five weeks of the season. The Giants went 1-4, losing those four games by a combined score of 31 to 125. It feels like extending Jones was the wrong decision for the Giants.
However, things are less clear for the Vikings. Cousins played well in 2023 until he tore his Achilles tendon. He signed a big contract with the Falcons, who saw value in him. However, it generally felt like it was time for Minnesota to move on. That enabled the Vikings to draft J.J. McCarthy with the 10th-overall pick, while the Giants opted against taking McCarthy and went with the dynamic Malik Nabers. The Vikings could use some of the cap space Cousins left freed up to sign Sam Darnold as a bridge QB, while the Giants opted for the cheaper Drew Lock.
McCarthy flashed great tools in the preseason, but he will miss his rookie season with a meniscus injury. Still, the Vikings can feel hope about the QB position beyond 2024, while the Giants are stuck hoping they can salvage Jones’ career or end up bad enough that they’re in the running for one of the top QBs in next year’s draft. That’s not an enviable position for Daboll or Schoen, whose 15-18-1 record will likely see them fired if they end up bad enough to draft a QB early.
defensive decisions
In addition to QB questions, the Vikings and Giants had to confront defensive uncertainty after the 2022 season. Both fielded poor defenses despite making the playoffs. The Giants were worse than Minnesota, raking 30th in defensive DVOA and 28th in EPA/play on defense. The Vikings ranked 24th in DVOA and 16th in EPA/play in 2022.
The Vikings evaluated their coaching staff on the defensive side of the ball and decided it wasn’t good enough. They fired Ed Donatell and hired Brian Flores, under whom the defense showed marked improvement. In 2023, they rose to 11th in defensive DVOA and improved their EPA/play slightly despite their ranking going to 17th.
The Giants also improved, but not as much. They ended up 21st in defensive DVOA and 22nd in EPA/play, but it wasn’t good enough. After the season, they parted ways with Wink Martindale and brought in a new staff. Minnesota’s defense under Flores will have a year’s head start over New York’s new DC, Shane Bowen.
tight end trades
It’s also interesting that the Vikings and Giants traded for tight ends but got very different results. Minnesota sent a second- and third-round pick to the Detroit Lions for Hockenson and received two fourth-round picks in return during the 2022 season. On the other hand, the Giants sent the 100th-overall pick to the Las Vegas Raiders for Darren Waller as part of their all-in offseason in 2023.
The Vikings are happy with Hockenson, whom they acquired as an ascending player the Lions did not want to extend. They gave Hockenson his long-term deal, and he rewarded them with 95 receptions and 960 yards last year. Hockenson was on pace for 100 catches and 1,000 yards before suffering a knee injury, and he still ended the year second in receptions among TEs and fourth in yards.
The results for the Giants and Waller were a much different story. Waller was nagged by injuries all year and ended up with just 52 catches for 552 yards and one TD on the season. Waller is now retired, while Hockenson is under contract through 2028. When you account for the value difference between what the Vikings gave up for Hockenson and what the Giants gave up for Waller, it is about a fifth-round pick on analytical trade charts. The Vikings outperformed the Giants here.
Free-Agent Frenzy
Downstream effects from the previous regime affected what the Vikings could do in free agency in 2023, but they were able to use several margin deals to bolster their roster. Key spending (over $5 million/year) included Hockenson’s contract, retaining C Garrett Bradbury, TE Josh Oliver, ED Marcus Davenport, and CB Byron Murphy.
The Giants didn’t have a ton of space either. However, they kept Jones, Saquon, WR Darius Slayton, and extended IDL Dexter Lawrence to a massive deal in 2023. They also added TE Darren Waller‘s contract, LB Bobby Okereke, and IDL A’Shawn Robinson.
Comparing the two sides one year later is probably close to a wash if we ignore the Jones contract. Hockenson is great, but Lawrence is phenomenal. I thought Byron Murphy was an excellent value for the Vikings last year, and while I’m not qualified to speak on it, Bobby Okereke graded out well by PFF standards last year. Otherwise, there weren’t notable contributions from outside free agents.
Moving on to 2024, the Vikings and Giants were active on the free-agent market. Both teams had significant departures, with Minnesota losing starters Cousins, ED Danielle Hunter, ED Marcus Davenport, ED D.J. Wonnum, and LB Jordan Hicks. The Giants moved on from IDL Leonard Williams when it was clear they were out of the playoff hunt and also lost S Xavier McKinney, RB Saquon Barkley, and IDL A’Shawn Robinson.
The Vikings added ED Jonathan Greenard, ED Andrew Van Ginkel, LB Blake Cashman, RB Aaron Jones, CB Stephon Gilmore, and QB Sam Darnold. The Giants added ED Brian Burns for a second-round pick that was roughly canceled out by the Leonard Williams trade and also paid significant money to OL Jon Runyan Jr., Jermaine Eluemunor, RB Devin Singletary, and QB Drew Lock.
Looking at those returns, it’s interesting that the Giants and the Vikings moved on from a defensive lineman (Williams and Hunter, respectively) to add another high-priced one (Burns and Greenard). Burns is a higher-impact player, but the Vikings were able to spread the wealth around and cover more holes on the defensive side of the ball while also adding Aaron Jones and Sam Darnold, who are better than Singletary and Lock. Despite clearly having a need at OL, I also think that the Giants added a pair of players who are mediocre at best in Eluemenor and Runyan.
In the past two years, Minnesota added more quality players than the Giants, and they are also currently slated to have $65 million in cap space in 2025, sixth in the NFL. The Giants are projected to have a solid $30 million, which ranks 16th. Still, the Vikings are obviously in a much better position. New York also has one less cornerstone player under contract through 2027. The Vikings have Hockenson, Greenard, Justin Jefferson, and Christian Darrisaw under contract that long, while the Giants have Burns, Lawrence, and Andrew Thomas.
draft parallels
Finishing close together in the playoffs meant that the Vikings and Giants picked back to back, and the Vikings came away with WR Jordan Addison while the Giants drafted CB Deonte Banks. Addison had a great rookie season with over 900 receiving yards and 10 TDs, while Banks started the whole year and is someone the Giants are excited about moving forward.
Beyond that, returns were minimal for either team. New York’s John Michael Schmitz was a season-long starter, but a very bad one, as he was PFF’s lowest-graded C. WR Jalin Hyatt disappointed with just 373 yards on over 500 snaps, while the other players were rotational at best. The Vikings got some solid contributions from Mekhi Blackmon but nothing spectacular, and he’s out this season with a torn ACL. Beyond that, they got the most special teams contributions from Jay Ward.
I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the Vikings getting a stud in LB Ivan Pace Jr. as a UDFA. The Giants didn’t have anyone rise nearly to Pace’s level, although QB Tommy DeVito and his agent were good for some comic relief in the middle of the season.
As far as the 2024 draft, it’s too early to tell. The Giants expect Malik Nabers to be a strong contributor, and the Vikings expect Dallas Turner to do the same. Other than that and noting that McCarthy probably would have started at some point but now can’t due to injury, no other players drafted by either team are expected to contribute significantly.
The Giants listed Dru Phillips as a starter at nickel on their Week 1 depth chart, although that may be the result of a lack of talent at the position than quality play. It’s noteworthy that Cor’Dale Flott, who played nickel last year, is listed as an outside starter, and Adoree’ Jackson, who started across from Banks, just re-signed with the team less than a week ago and is listed as a third-stringer. They will likely bump Phillips once Jackson is up to speed.
Will Reichard will contribute as Minnesota’s kicker, but that’s not exactly the same as a position player starting.
Ultimately, it’s too early to tell when comparing the picks made by the Giants and Vikings.
roster comparison
Now, let’s look at the depth charts for each team.
First, the Vikings:
Now, the Giants:
Going position-by-position, it’s obvious the Vikings have a better roster. On offense, their weak spot is the IOL, but New York’s interior three of Van Roten/Schmitz/Runyan isn’t exactly inspiring. The Vikings have a better group at receiver with Jefferson and Addison, and Daniel Bellinger pales compared to Hockenson, who will start once he’s back from injury. Aaron Jones has proven better than Devin Singletary, and even if you want to say Daniel Jones is better than Sam Darnold, they’re both Tier 4 starters at QB, according to the Athletic’s survey of team personnel.
On defense, the Giants have a fearsome combo of Lawrence and Burns and a solid, high-potential player in Thibodeaux. The Vikings can’t match Lawrence on the interior, but they have better depth at edge with Greenard, Van Ginkel, and Turner. They also have a better pair of LBs in Pace and Cashman, as Cashman washes out Okereke and Pace is better than the mediocre McFadden.
Both defenses have major questions at CB, but Murphy and Gilmore at least match Banks and Jackson. It’s no contest at safety. Minnesota’s excellent trio of Harrison Smith, Camryn Bynum, and Josh Metellus lap New York’s Dane Belton and Jason Pinnock. If you cancel out the advantage the Giants have at DT with the advantage the Vikings have at S, the Vikings probably look better across the board.
conclusion
Despite win totals calling the teams similar, the Vikings have done a better job of team building than the Giants over the past two years. Vegas’ negative outlook on the 2024 Vikings is influenced heavily by their QB situation, and J.J. McCarthy is expected to replace Sam Darnold in the future. The Giants don’t have a way to positively spin their QB situation moving forward — they will need to rely on an early draft pick to do that.
In examining the moves, I think the Vikings outpaced the Giants in three main ways.
First and foremost, they recognized that paying a player who is a good but not great starter high-level money is not a recipe for success, and they made a plan to move on from Kirk Cousins while the Giants invested big in Daniel Jones. Making this decision helped them add better talent in free agency during the 2024 offseason and set them up in a better cap position moving forward.
Second, they were able to see through the noise of a season where the team won a lot of close games to recognize the deficiencies on defense and move to a defensive coordinator that set the team on a better path a year earlier than the Giants.
Finally, they prioritized building through youthful additions, like Hockenson, rather than expecting older players like Darren Waller to continue to play like stars.
The Vikings still have work to do. However, they’re much further along the path to being competitive than the Giants are, despite their paths starting in the 2022 Wild Card round. They’re not ready yet, but Kwesi’s vision has set them on a clear path with a promising young QB and the resources to fill the team’s remaining holes next offseason.
