The running back position has recently been the center of plenty of discourse in NFL circles.
The Minnesota Vikings made their statement on the running back position last offseason by deciding not to bring back veteran Dalvin Cook, who had been Minnesota’s go-to rusher since his rookie season in 2017.
Minnesota signed Cook to a five-year contract worth up to $63 million before the 2020 season, which is over $12 million annually. Wisely, previous general manager Rick Spielman included an easy way out for the Vikings after the 2022 season. Current general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah took advantage.
Cook hinted at signs of decline during the 2022 season. That isn’t to say he was inefficient – he still rushed for 1,173 yards and averaged 4.4 yards per carry. However, history shows that once running backs begin to show that decline, that trajectory rarely changes with age.
It appears Adofo-Mensah was right about Cook. As a member of the New York Jets, Cook averaged only 3.2 yards per carry in the 2023 season and barely had any offensive role by the end of the season.
With all of that said, Minnesota’s rushing attack was poor during the 2023 season, the team’s first without Cook as a leading rusher in five years. The Vikings ranked in the bottom third of the league in rushing yards and yards per carry. It wasn’t until Week 8 that the Vikings recorded a rushing touchdown. Minnesota’s co-leaders for the season in rushing touchdowns? Quarterback Joshua Dobbs and running back Ty Chandler with three.
It’s a rather significant change from previous seasons for the Vikings, who have been relatively steady in the ground game compared to the rest of the league. But despite a rough 2023, Minnesota needed to avoid falling for the trap of using significant resources, such as a large chunk of cap space or a high draft pick, on a running back. History shows the position is just not worth investing in.
If the San Francisco 49ers win the Super Bowl, they will be an exception. By and large, Super Bowl-winning teams do not employ a running back on a large contract.
You can add Isiah Pacheco to the list for the 2022 season, who was a rookie seventh-round draft pick with a salary of less than $1 million. If the Kansas City Chiefs win the Super Bowl again next weekend, he’ll once again join the list at less than $1 million.
Also of note, you have to go back to 1998 for the last time the NFL’s leading rusher from the regular season was also on the Super Bowl-winning team. That was Terrell Davis and the Denver Broncos. Christian McCaffrey is the unicorn who could finally buck that trend if the 49ers win the Super Bowl.
Kansas City even fell victim to this trap a few years ago, drafting Clyde Edwards-Helaire with the last pick in the first round of the 2020 draft. Edwards-Helaire failed to establish himself as the workhorse back for the Chiefs in his first couple of seasons. Then in 2022, Pacheco quickly grabbed that role despite being a seventh-round rookie.
It’s not just the value of the position to consider. The injury risk at the running back position is also important to consider. Todd Gurley is the perfect example. Shortly after signing his big extension with the Los Angeles Rams, Gurley’s knee issues quickly derailed his career. He was out of the league mid-way through that contract.
There are plenty of other examples of big-name running backs whose production tailed off after signing mega contracts. Le’Veon Bell’s four-year, $52.5 million deal with the Jets in 2019 turned out to be a flop. Ezekiel Elliott remained healthy, but his production dropped significantly from his first couple of seasons in the league with the Dallas Cowboys.
McCaffrey is carrying the torch for running backs looking for a large contract. But even his career exemplifies why these deals often don’t work out. The Carolina Panthers signed McCaffrey to his current four-year, $64 million contract. But they quickly realized that contract was detrimental to their direction as a team. Carolina needed to rebuild a roster, and having over $16 million per season tied up in a running back is not the best way to start that process. So they traded him to San Francisco, who has the cap space to afford McCaffrey’s contract because their quarterback is on the cheapest QB deal in the NFL.
Adofo-Mensah is a data-driven general manager, and he hasn’t been shy about that. His background is in analytics. He understands the risks behind allocating significant cap space or a high draft pick to the running back position.
The trap has been laid, though. Minnesota’s ground game was ugly in 2023. But the best course of action for the Vikings is to use a late-round pick to find that workhorse running back. Day 3 draft picks constantly prove they can carry the load in the NFL. There are currently dozens of these guys – Aaron Jones, Austin Ekeler, Kyren Williams, Raheem Mostert, and Tony Pollard, to name a few.
Adofo-Mensah has made the right moves and invested in the right positions. It appears this offseason will hinge on what decision is made at quarterback. From there, the roster-building decisions will quickly eat away at the available cap space.
It would be a mistake for Adofo-Mensah to limit himself even further by trying to solve the ground game problem by paying extra for a running back. It’s rarely worth it. Super Bowl-winning general managers from the past couple of decades would agree.
