The Minnesota Vikings’ narrative has been clear this year. National analysts see the Vikings as a nice surprise and a good team but one largely unworthy of mentioning in the Super Bowl conversation. However, that doesn’t mean the Vikings don’t have a shot. History has told us time and again that NFL teams don’t have to be a juggernaut to reach the Super Bowl.
Yes, the Vikings have had a few close calls in winnable games recently, and they had turnover issues after the bye. However, Minnesota managed to seal those victories despite those mistakes. They couldn’t accomplish that feat last season, even with a healthy Kirk Cousins.
Look, it’s not that experts don’t have a point. The 2024 Vikings had an excellent first quarter of the year, and NFL writers played with the idea of pairing Vikings and juggernaut in the same sentence. Then, they fell flat in the second quarter of the season. In those games, Minnesota’s two losses, paired with a couple of unconvincing victories, have fans and analysts uneasy about the team’s Super Bowl chances.
But they are a good, perhaps very good, and good teams often make it to – and even win – the Super Bowl.
Good Teams Who Were Not Juggernauts Who Also Won the Super Bowl
2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Let’s start with recent history. Yes, 2020 feels like ages ago, somehow. If you’ll recall, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the Super Bowl that season. However, you may not remember that they finished with an 11-5 record and were one game behind the New Orleans Saints in the NFC South. They earned a Wild Card spot, earning the fifth seed in the playoff bracket – right where the Vikings currently sit.
Okay, the Vikings don’t have Tom Brady. You got me. However, while Brady always gave teams a chance, his teams didn’t always dominate the league. That’s what we’re evaluating here, and the 2020 Bucs were far from a juggernaut.
Minnesota has a better defense than the 2020 Bucs. As of week 12, the Vikings only allowed 17.9 points per game, which is fifth overall in the league. They also have a better run game, which is a little above average this year compared to the Bucs’ bottom-five ranking. Sam Darnold has a passer rating of 101.7, while Brady had a 102.2 rating.
2015 Denver Broncos
Maybe I didn’t convincingly weasel out of the Tom Brady factor. So, how could I possibly follow the 2020 Bucs with a comparison to a Peyton Manning-led team? Well, many may recall, Manning played his career-worst year. Still, the Broncos hoisted the Lombardi.
Yes, they had a great defense. However, given their points-for and points-against averages, Pro Football Reference calculated an expected win-loss record of 9-7 that year, and they still won it all.
Guess what team pundits called a juggernaut that season? League MVP Cam Newton and the 15-1 Super Bowl-losing Carolina Panthers.
In 2015, Denver’s offense ranked 19th overall in points per game, while the Vikings are ninth in that category. The Broncos’ defense in 2015 ranked fourth overall in points per game. As noted earlier, the Vikings boast the league’s fifth-best defense.
The 2015 Broncos finished the season with a minus-four turnover ratio, mainly due to Manning’s 17 interceptions. On the other hand, the Vikings have a plus-four turnover ratio.
2012 Baltimore Ravens
On paper, the 2012 Baltimore Ravens were as average as a team can get in both offensive and defensive rankings. Joe Flacco, their starting quarterback, was only 14th overall in passing yards with an average quarterback rating. As far as Super Bowl contenders go, the Ravens were far from a juggernaut.
Writers still reference their improbable Super Bowl run. Out of 35 ESPN commentators, 21 predicted the San Francisco 49ers to win that year, given their run game and top-five defense.
Like the Vikings and Detroit Lions, the Ravens were in a race with the Cincinnati Bengals in 2012. However, Baltimore earned the win-percentage tiebreaker, nabbing the AFC North title at 10-6.
The 2024 Vikings are statistically better than the Ravens in nearly all categories. That includes points for and against, their turnover ratio (Baltimore broke even in 2012), passing yards per game, and total yards per game on offense and defense.
The 2012 Ravens were statistically better than the current Vikings in only one of the evaluated stats – rushing yards per game.
We could be here all day if we measured all the relevant metrics. Only a few other categories are worth noting to see if the Vikings measure up. One of which, and this is a vital one, is their away record.
If the Vikings don’t usurp the Lions for the division title, they will play at least one playoff game – if not all of them – away from home.
The Vikings have a 5-1 record when playing outside US Bank Stadium. That includes challenging victories in Lambeau and Soldier Field. At this rate, they’ve already beaten the 2012 Ravens in that category, who finished 4-4 in away games.
It’s easy to get caught up in quarterback misreads or fumbles at the one-yard line. I, for one, am tired of seeing this season through a cynical lens. The Vikings are 9-2 on what many referred to as their “transition” year, and they have a legit shot at winning it all – history tells us so.
