Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is a data guy, but he knows he must practically apply it.
Everyone on Wall Street sees a scoreboard at the end of the day. Theory is grand until you run a deficit. Similarly, in football, 13-win seasons are fun until you lose to Daniel Jones in the playoffs. Trading down seems wise unless you draft Lewis Cine instead of Jordan Davis.
“I’m a data person, but I’m also a practitioner,” Adofo-Mensah said on Monday, “and so when you do these things in actuality and practice, the average result isn’t –”
He paused briefly, searching for an example.
“If I said there was an average height in this room, I know that everybody that walks in is not going to be that average height, and there’s variance in different things like that,” he said. “There will be people with different heights.”
Adofo-Mensah continued his thought, but people seated near him in the Minnesota Vikings media center started to snicker. Kevin O’Connell, 6’5”, sat to Adofo-Mensah’s left and couldn’t contain his laughter. A reporter who may be a foot-and-a-half shorter than O’Connell sat directly in front of them, also chortled.
“But obviously you always wanna make sure that you’re paying attention to the information context,” Adofo-Mensah said, continuing his thought while trying to suppress his laughter. “Is this different than the average outcome?”
Adofo-Mensah was answering a question about Harrison Smith, Minnesota’s ageless wonder at safety. Smith may be 36 and eat blocks of cheese for lunch, but the 6’2”, 211 lbs. Hitman still lurks in the backfield.
“When you meet Harrison Smith, right away you understand why he might be the type of person to defy odds,” said Adofo-Mensah. “He’s done nothing short of convincing us that over these few years.”
Adofo-Mensah isn’t really talking about height when using this analogy. Nor does what he’s saying apply exclusively to Harrison Smith. It’s about turning process into results, evaluating theory once it’s put into practice. Becoming the first general manager to build a Super Bowl-winning team in Minnesota.
Football players come in all shapes and sizes. Brian O’Neill and Jonathan Greenard are large enough to blot out the sun. Justin Jefferson enters the astral plane when he turns to dodge a defender. Aaron Jones isn’t allowed on some of the bigger roller coasters at Valleyfair.
However, they are all impact players once they step on the gridiron. They’re all part of Minnesota’s plan to deliver J.J. McCarthy into the NFL with clean hands.
The Vikings are coming off a 14-win season, retained most of their core, and supplemented it in free agency. Jefferson shakes corners so hard they return to the sideline feeling stirred. Brian Flores’ defense scrambles opposing quarterbacks’ minds.
Still, Vegas has Minnesota’s win total at 8.5 entering the season.
The oddsmakers don’t believe in McCarthy.
Adofo-Mensah knows the numbers. Sam Darnold resurrected his career last year, throwing for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns, and he let him sign with the Seattle Seahawks. Kirk Cousins went 50-37-1 and made three Pro Bowls in Minnesota. Still, Adofo-Mensah balked at extending a player who had only won one playoff game and was coming off an Achilles injury.
Instead, they turn to McCarthy.
Minnesota’s second-year quarterback is 6’2.5”, 219 lbs. McCarthy has 31⅝ inch arms and nine-inch hands. He threw for 2,991 yards in his final year at the University of Michigan, leading the nation with a 72.3% completion percentage, 9.79 yards per attempt, and a 167.4 quarterback rating. He led the Wolverines to their first national championship since 1997.
However, they seem as sold on his leadership, moxie, and preparation as they are on his tangible qualities. There’s something about McCarthy that tells them he can be the guy. That he can defy the odds.
Still, there’s no guarantee he will be the franchise quarterback they’ve been searching for since 1978. The Vikings may have bolstered their offensive line to insulate him and solidified the defense so he doesn’t have to rely on shootouts. Jefferson can catch anything thrown his way, and T.J. Hockenson is a reliable outlet when he’s under pressure. Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason will lead a running game that will take pressure off him.
Ultimately, McCarthy must deliver.
Whether he does is something we’ll measure at the end of the season. Until then, Adofo-Mensah is a data guy and a practitioner, hoping the idea of McCarthy as a franchise quarterback will materialize this season.
