This season has been awesome for Minnesota Vikings fans.
The team has exceeded even the most optimistic fans’ wildest preseason expectations. Sam Darnold has gone from bust to baller, the defense is changing the game both schematically and choreographically every Sunday, and fans can plan their entire evening around the weekly Kevin O’Connell Game Ball Locker Room Speech. The vibes are immaculate, and I really shouldn’t complain.
But I’m going to complain.
The most exhausting part of following a team that greatly exceeds expectations is the slow, agonizing process of changing the national preconceptions about them. From within their fanbase and the NFL world, there’s a never-ending list of boxes to check before people take this team seriously.
Beat a good team? Check.
Blow out a team? Check.
Win eight games in a row and go 13-2 on the season? Check.
For me personally, there’s only one more box to check. Check this box, and I’ll no longer have any doubts. They’ll have my vote of confidence heading into any playoff environment and taking on any opponent.
Sweep the Green Bay Packers.
My biggest fear heading into a rugged NFC playoff picture is this team’s ability to match up against physical, downhill running games and stout, aggressive defensive fronts. And if you’re keeping track, I just described the Minnesota Vikings’ three toughest opponents left in the NFC playoff race: Green Bay, the Detroit Lions, and Philadelphia Eagles.
Brian Flores’ defense has played its best this year when they’ve been able to use smaller, faster personnel. Josh Metellus is at his best playing in the box as a Swiss Army knife player. He can use versatility to overcome his lack of perfect fit in any given role. When healthy, Ivan Pace Jr. over-compensates for his smaller stature by knifing through opposing offenses in space for TFLs. Meanwhile, the defensive front is at its best when throwing out combinations of multiple lighter edge rushers along the line to attack the offense with twists and stunts.
All of those concepts have worked exceptionally well this year. However, the Vikings have shown signs of mortality in a few matchups. Last week, this defense that thrives on pressure could not get to Geno Smith until late in the game.
Why? Because the Seattle Seahawks took Minnesota out of the personnel it wanted.
The Seahawks lived in “12 personnel” (one running back, two tight ends), and this run-heavy look meant more heavy personnel for Minnesota. More big boys like Jerry Tillery and Jonathan Bullard up front, more Kamu Grugier-Hill to put a true linebacker on the field opposite Blake Cashman, and way less effective twists and stunts by the defensive front as slower bodies attempted to pull them off to diminished success.
Seattle also ran over the Vikings a bit. As a light defense, they routinely got taken for a ride for three or four extra yards whenever they needed to tackle one-on-one. Minnesota’s defense is still predicated on stopping the play in the backfield or quickly rallying to the ball with multiple bodies downfield. Still, when that doesn’t happen, it can mean valuable extra yards for opposing offenses.
The best way to beat this defense is by playing quick, methodical bully ball. I specify quick because Seattle succeeded by playing faster, which didn’t allow Flores’ defense to do all of its disguising trickeration pre-snap. Combining that with a quick-release passing game against Minnesota’s slower personnel, the Seahawks created a game plan that almost sent the Vikings home with their third loss last week.
While the Vikings rank near the top of the league in rushing defense, it’s a bit of a mirage. They sit atop the league in that category mostly because their style of play on offense and defense normally coaxes the opposition into throwing the ball. Still, we’ve seen good rushing teams like Detroit and the Rams give this defense fits. Heavy personnel and a patient dedication to running the football are the closest thing to an Achilles heel for this unit.
That kind of game plan is Matt LaFleur’s bailiwick.
Green Bay has been exceptional running the ball all year against any and everyone. Regardless of who is at quarterback or what defense they’re facing, they’ve generated yards in the running game.
The Packers are fourth in the NFL in rushing, with 2,209 yards this season and 4.7 yards per carry. The only teams better than them have some of the best rushing threats at quarterback in the league: the Baltimore Ravens, Eagles, and Washington Commanders with Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Jayden Daniels, respectively. However, the Packers primarily use a traditional, non-QB running game when Jordan Love is under center, making that all the more impressive.
On the other side of the ball, Green Bay’s defense is also formidable. They’re in the top 10 of the league in almost every statistical category: seventh in total defense, eighth in passing defense, seventh in rushing defense, sixth in scoring defense, and venth on third down.
Simply put, they’re good.
The pair of former UGA Bulldogs, defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt and linebacker Quay Walker, have panned out for them. Wyatt and Walker are tied atop the defense with nine tackles for loss (TFLs) this year. While they may not have a signature pass rusher, Rashan Gary brings a powerful edge presence that will be a force to be reckoned with all afternoon. In the secondary, Xavier McKinney has been exceptional all season, with seven interceptions and a 90.8 coverage grade by PFF.
Green Bay’s defensive disadvantage may be at corner, especially if Jaire Alexander misses this game (again) with an injury. They’ve got a cornerback room that’s played admirably, but they’ve only got one guy capable of going toe-to-toe with Justin Jefferson in Alexander. Jefferson’s gotten the better of him in the past, but he’s also had moments in this rivalry. Not having him on the field would be a big blow for Green Bay.
The Packers are going to be a tough matchup. This is a different ball game compared to Minnesota’s early season matchup in Lambeau. Jordan Love is completely healthy, the defense is playing lights out, and Green Bay’s running game is one of the best units in the league. A good quarterback, a gritty defensive front, and a premier running game are, in many ways, the final boss for this Vikings team.
Come January, if our wildest dreams come true, it’ll likely mean playing teams like the Eagles, Packers, or Lions, all of which are built in a way that matches this profile. They are teams built to win in January. The clichés about what it takes to win in the playoffs are wrapped up into three scary football teams.
Minnesota can prove they should be treated just as seriously this weekend. Even if they lose in Detroit the week after, slay this dragon this weekend, and prove this won’t be another year where the late-season Packers game is your bugaboo.
If this Vikings team can handle Green Bay this weekend, I’ll be done with “cautious optimism.” I’ll be done with doubts. I’ll be ready to pick them to have at worst a coin flip’s chance against anyone in the NFC playoff field. They’ll have proven that they can beat this archetype at the height of its powers, and I’ll be through with doubts.
This game wouldn’t prove they’re an unstoppable juggernaut, but it would prove they belong. And for a season spent proving they belong, it’d feel awesome to finally end that with a crescendo and a victory over their most hated rival.
Win on Sunday, and the sky’s the limit.
