Quarterback is the most important position in sports, and the Minnesota Vikings are gearing up to take their QB of the future in the 2024 NFL Draft next week. Taking a QB isn’t an exact science, and it’s hard to predict which of the top prospects will find success before the draft.
There are many different factors that make a QB successful, and many are based on the individual player’s makeup and work away from the team to improve. Nailing their evaluation will be critical for Minnesota’s chances of success, but a part of that is outside of their control. The team needs to focus on what they can control and follow through on supporting whoever they take to the best of their abilities.
While “support your rookie QB” may sound obvious, there have been many cases where teams have failed to do so for a variety of reasons.
- Famously, Dan Snyder took Dwayne Haskins against the wishes of his front office and coaching staff, and the situation quickly unraveled.
- The New York Jets have historically failed to put quality talent around their rookie QBs
- Sam Darnold was throwing to Robbie Chosen, Chris Herndon, and Quincy Enunwa as his top targets.
- Later Zach Wilson had just Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, and Keelan Cole to throw to.
- Jared Goff‘s improvement was remarkable after going from an outdated offense under Jeff Fisher and OC Rob Boras to Sean McVay,
- And everyone knows that David Carr had no chance behind an abysmal offensive line on the expansion Houston Texans.
For the first part, Vikings fans just have to hope that ownership, GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, and HC Kevin O’Connell are on the same page when it comes to which QB they want. That seems to be the case, based on the vibes from their owner’s meeting media appearances. If so, then how does the rest of Minnesota’s supporting cast — from offensive coaches to receiving options, to offensive line, to the running game — hold up against the other teams that have taken QBs in the first round?
I went back to 2011, the first year of the rookie wage scale, and looked at every QB taken in the first round who also started significant games in his rookie season. This means I excluded Patrick Mahomes, Paxton Lynch, Jordan Love, Trey Lance, and Anthony Richardson. I ranked their supporting casts on a scale from 1-10 (10 being best) for coaches, receiving options, and offensive line, and 1-5 for RBs, to determine which supporting casts were best for rookie QBs. I also included the other QB-needy teams in 2024 — the Chicago Bears, Washington Commanders, New England Patriots, New York Giants, Denver Broncos, and Las Vegas Raiders — in the sample to see how the Vikings compared to those teams.
Evaluating the Vikings
My evaluation of the Vikings came out as:
- Coaching – 6
- Top-3 Receiving Options – 10
- OL – 7
- RB – 3
- Overall – 26 (1st of 43)
That’s right, the Vikings have the best supporting cast we’ve seen for a rookie QB in recent memory. There are certainly some holes on the offense, but it’s a quality group across the board in general, which isn’t something you can say for a lot of the teams in this sample. Most of the QBs were high picks, and teams picking high tend to have significant flaws besides the QB position. The Vikings are in the somewhat fortunate position of floundering in 2023 due to a QB injury rather than a lack of offensive talent. (For more on other top teams, see later in the article.)
Evaluating O’Connell was probably the hardest part of this exercise for me because it is difficult to extract the offensive play-caller from the success of his QB. Brian Daboll, who I also included in this sample, is a good example. He was considered a great offensive mind because he was able to get the most out of Josh Allen. Still, the Giants floundered in Year 2 with him after initial success. Or how about Zac Taylor? People lambasted him in 2020 when Joe Burrow took a ton of sacks and got hurt. But he has seemed to be a really good play-caller ever since, while Burrow has bloomed into a great QB in an offense that showcases two explosive weapons.
I’m high on O’Connell’s abilities as a play-caller, but there is some room for doubt based on the team’s performance when Cousins was injured. Ultimately, I settled for a score that put him in with other quality play-callers like Daboll, Norv Turner, Bill O’Brien, and Jay Gruden but below legends like Sean Payton, Bruce Arians, and Kyle Shanahan.
Conversely, when looking at receiving options, it was easy to rank the Vikings as the best we’ve seen. There have been some great pairs, like the Carolina Panthers, who had legends in Steve Smith Sr. and Greg Olsen. But Brandon LaFell was their third option, a quality player who only broke 700 yards twice in his career. The Vikings not only have the best receiver in the game in Justin Jefferson, but they also have great options in T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison behind him.
The Vikings also ranked highly on the offensive line based primarily on their Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill tackle tandem. Many of the lines had at least one good tackle, but only the Cleveland Browns had a better pairing with Joe Thomas and Mitchell Schwartz. I also used PFF grade pretty heavily to help with older OLs, so Minnesota’s suspect interior was helped by the fact that it was good in those metrics last year:
Finally, for RB, I really like what Aaron Jones brings to the team, but I downgraded him some due to injury potential.
How do the Vikings stack up against other QB-needy teams?
As I mentioned, I looked at other teams that might draft a QB, so here are my scores for those teams:
Chicago Bears
Coaching – 6
Top-3 Receiving Options – 8.5
OL – 4
RB – 2
Overall – 20.5 (14th of 43)
When people talk about the Bears and Caleb Williams, they often say that Chicago has the best supporting cast for a No. 1-overall pick. They’re certainly in the upper echelon, but there are deficiencies on the roster. I like what Shane Waldron did in Seattle, and adding Keenan Allen to work with D.J. Moore is a great 1-2 punch. However, I think their OL is a big need despite lacking glaring holes. Braxton Jones is mediocre, and Darnell Wright played poorly last year despite being a top-10 pick. I have them ranked behind the 2012 Indianapolis Colts, who had Bruce Arians calling plays with Andrew Luck throwing to Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton. I also had them tied with the 2011 Panthers, who had Cam Newton throwing to the aforementioned Smith and Olsen behind a strong OL, including Jordan Gross and Ryan Kalil, and the 2020 Bengals, who had Zac Taylor dialing up plays for Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and an aging A.J. Green.
Washington Commanders
Coaching – 4.5
Top-3 Receiving Options – 7
OL – 3
RB – 2.5
Overall – 17 (26th)
I’m not particularly high on Kliff Kingsbury, who failed to produce a consistent offense in Arizona. I also question Washington’s offensive line, where they added a number of pieces. Are any of Chase Lucas, Nick Allegretti, Tyler Biadasz, Sam Cosmi, and Andrew Wylie actually good players? That said, they do have a quality set of receiving options led by Terry McLaurin and came out just a bit below the average cast.
New England Patriots
Coaching – 3
Top-3 Receiving Options – 1.5
OL – 5
RB – 3.5
Overall – 13 (34th)
There is a lot of speculation that the Patriots might be willing to trade down to gain assets, and that makes sense, given the state of their offensive roster. Alex Van Pelt is an unknown as a play-caller, but it’s a bad sign when K.J. Osborn, who is a quality depth piece, might be the team’s best receiver. The offensive line could also use an upgrade, with Conor McDermott currently slated to be their LT.
New York Giants
Coaching – 6
Top-3 Receiving Options – 2
OL – 6
RB – 2
Overall – 16 (27th)
I feel that Brian Daboll is a quality offensive play-caller, and Andrew Thomas is one of the best LTs in the league. However, the rest of the Giants’ OL is questionable, and their receiving options are non-existent. Darren Waller might retire, which would leave Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson as their best pass catchers.
Denver Broncos
Coaching – 9
Top-3 Receiving Options – 3
OL – 7
RB – 2.5
Overall – 21.5 (8th)
The Broncos came out of this analysis looking like they have a really good team, but the primary driver of their score is my Sean Payton grade. Payton is a legendary offensive coach, but I also don’t know how well his system will translate to a QB who isn’t Drew Brees. Part of their high OL grade is that they have a lot of money invested in the group, and a player like Mike McGlinchey might be overrated based on his level of compensation. Denver’s WR room needs someone besides Courtland Sutton to step up, and Javonte Williams may not live up to his talent due to injury issues.
Las Vegas Raiders
Coaching – 1
Top-3 Receiving Options – 9
OL – 5
RB – 1.5
Overall – 16 (28th)
Luke Getsy‘s offense in Chicago last year was putrid. If you think that was all on Justin Fields, the Raiders may rank significantly higher, but I saw issues with protection and design that go beyond the QB. With Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Michael Mayer, the Raiders have a seriously talented group of pass catchers, and Kolton Miller anchors an OL in transition. I’m also very concerned about their running game. Going into the season with Zamir White as the lead guy feels akin to the Vikings trotting out Alexander Mattison last year, which drags the team’s ranking down to the middle of the pack.
Top historical supporting casts
While the Vikings took the top spot, it was close among a couple of the top teams. The top-five teams all had overall scores of 24.5 or better, while there was a jump down a score of 22 for the sixth spot (interestingly, they occupied by the 2011 Minnesota Vikings, who took Christian Ponder).
The rest of the top five include:
2021 New England Patriots (Mac Jones) – The Patriots had a great offensive line in Jones’ rookie year and splurged in free agency to get a receiving group that included Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry, and great depth from Nelson Agholor. For all of Josh McDaniels’ shortcomings as an HC, he has typically been a very good play-caller throughout his career, so he also scored highly. But it fell apart for the Patriots and Jones a year later, when the receiving depth and Dante Scarnecchia were gone, and they gave Matt Patricia control of the offense.
2016 Philadelphia Eagles (Carson Wentz) – Doug Pederson and Frank Reich brought an innovative, RPO-based scheme to Philadelphia and added that to some elite OL play with Jason Peters, Jason Kelce, and Brandon Brooks. They didn’t quite have the receiving talent that the 2017 Super Bowl team did because they added Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith later, but Zach Ertz provided a nice security blanket in Wentz’s rookie year.
2012 Washington Commanders (Robert Griffin III) – RGIII obviously took the NFL by storm in his rookie year under the Shanahan’s coaching. Their offensive line was strong, with Trent Williams at LT, and Alfred Morris had an amazing rookie season. The receiving room was the weak point, headed by the aging Pierre Garcon and Santana Moss.
2015 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Jameis Winston) – Winston had some great weapons in his rookie year, including Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson. Doug Martin lit the world on fire with a 1,400-yard, All-Pro season, and the OL had solid players like Donovan Smith, Logan Mankins, and Ali Marpet. Dirk Koetter was the weak point. While he was far from the best OC, he is also far from the worst.
Top-5 Offensive Coaches
- Kyle Shannahan (2012 Commanders and 2014 Browns)
- Doug Pederson/Frank Reich (2016 Eagles/2023 Panthers)
- Sean Payton (2024 Saints)
- Bruce Arians (2012 Colts)
- Bobby Slowik (2023 Texans)
Top-5 Receiving Groups
- Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, Jordan Addison (2024 Vikings)
- Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Michael Mayer (2024 Raiders)
- Reggie Wayne, T.Y. Hilton, Donnie Avery (2012 Colts)
- DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Stephen Anderson (2017 Texans)
- D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Cole Kmet (2024 Bears)
- (tie) Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, Austin Seferian-Jenkins (2015 Buccaneers)
Top-5 Offensive Lines
- Jason Peters, Allen Barbre, Jason Kelce, Brandon Brooks, Halapoulivaati Vaitai (2016 Eagles)
- Joe Thomas, Joel Bitonio, Nick McDonald, John Greco, Mitchell Schwartz (2014 Browns)
- Isaiah Wynn, Ted Karras, David Andrews, Shaq Mason, Trent Brown (2021 Patriots)
- Joe Thomas, John Greco, Alex Mack, Shawn Lauvao, Mitchell Schwartz (2012 Browns)
- Ronnie Stanley, Alex Lewis, Matt Skura, Marshal Yanda, Orlando Brown Jr. (2018 Ravens)
Top-5 RBs
- Maurice Jones-Drew (2011 Jaguars)
- Doug Martin (2015 Buccaneers)
- Adrian Peterson (2012 Vikings)
- Nick Chubb (2018 Browns)
- Saquon Barkley (2019 Giants)
- (tie) C.J. Spiller (2013 Bills)
Worst historical supporting casts
What about the flip side of the coin? Here are some of the worst support systems that teams have put together over the years, ranked from the bottom up. Notably, the Jets show up twice. If I expanded this list to the bottom nine, the Bears and Jaguars would also have repeat appearances, which indicates ownership issues to me.
2020 Miami Dolphins (Tua Tagovailoa) – Brian Flores accused the Dolphins of trying to tank in 2019, and it shows, given the state of their offensive roster in Tua’s first year. While the defense was improved with strong investments, the offensive supporting cast was putrid, led by DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki, and Jakeem Grant. Myles Gaskin was the team’s lead back, and the first- and second-round picks of Austin Jackson and Robert Hunt struggled initially in the NFL. Chan Gailey’s stale offensive system didn’t help.
2021 Jacksonville Jaguars (Trevor Lawrence) – Urban Meyer did one of the worst coaching jobs of all time with this team, which made me give him a rare zero score. Marvin Jones was a solid receiving option, but he was followed by Laviska Shenault and Laquon Treadwell of all people. The OL had some solid pieces, which saved this from being the worst.
2015 Tennessee Titans (Marcus Mariota) – Antonio Andrews, a player I had forgotten even existed, was Tennesee’s leading rusher in 2015 with 520 yards at 3.6 yards per attempt. Delanie Walker had a great year as a receiving TE, but Mariota’s best receivers were Dorial Green-Beckham and Harry Douglas. Ken Whisenhunt was on his way out of the league after failing hard at multiple previous stops.
2018 New York Jets (Sam Darnold) – I frankly did not recognize Jeremy Bates’ name, and that’s a bad sign if you’re an offensive coordinator. I highlighted this receiving corps above as what not to do to support your rookie QB. Isaiah Crowell was a decent back, and this OL had some long-tenured players on it. But the Jets did very little to help Darnold overall.
2021 New York Jets (Zach Wilson) – Showing up twice on this list in four years is not great, Jets. The supporting players were entirely different with this 2021 team, but they still weren’t any good. At least the team had some respectable offensive linemen, including George Fant, Alijah Vera-Tucker, and Morgan Moses. But a skill-player squadron of Michael Carter, Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, and Keelan Cole doesn’t cut it. Mike LaFleur might turn out to be a better offensive mind than he showed at his first stop, but I don’t have a high grade on him here.
2021 Chicago Bears (Justin Fields) – Letting Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy pick a QB while they were on the hot seat was the first mistake the Bears made, but it wasn’t the only one. Chicago had to ask an ancient Jason Peters to play LT, and Cody Whitehair, Sam Mustipher, James Daniels, or Larry Borom were not quality starters either. David Montgomery had a nice year, but Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, and a hobbled Allen Robinson led to a depleted receiving corps.
Bottom-5 Offensive Coaches
- Urban Meyer (2021 Jaguars)
- Matt Canada (2022 Steelers)
- Luke Getsy (2024 Raiders)
- Dowell Loggains (2017 Bears)
- Rob Boras (2016 Rams)
Bottom-5 Receiving Groups
- Marcedes Lewis, Mike Thomas, Jason Hill (2011 Jaguars)
- Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault, Laquon Treadwell (2021 Jaguars)
- Kendall Wright, Josh Bellamy, Anthony Miller (2017 Bears)
- Zay Jones, Robert Foster, Kelvin Benjamin (2017 Bills)
- Pop Douglas, Hunter Henry, K.J. Osborn (2024 Patriots)
- (tie) Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, Jonathan Mingo (2023 Panthers)
Bottom-5 Offensive Lines
- Ikem Ekwonu, Chandler Zavala, Bradley Bozeman, Austin Corbett, Taylor Moton (2023 Panthers)
- Sam Tevi, Forrest Lamp, Dan Feeney, Trai Turner, Bryan Bulaga (2020 Chargers)
- Chris Clark, Xavier Su’a-Filo, Nick Martin, Jeff Allen, Breno Giacomini (2017 Texans)
- Austin Jackson, Ereck Flowers, Ted Karras, Solomon Kindley, Robert Hunt (2020 Dolphins)
- Jason Peters, Cody Whitehair, Sam Mustipher, James Daniels, Larry Borom (2021 Bears)
Bottom-5 RBs
- Denard Robinson (2011 Jaguars)
- Antonio Andrews (2015 Titans)
- Vick Ballard (2012 Colts)
- Terrance West (2014 Browns)
- Michael Carter (2021 Jets)
- (tie) Myles Gaskin (2020 Dolphins)
conclusion
While you may not agree that this year’s Vikings belong at the top of the list of supporting casts, they are certainly near the upper echelon when compared to other teams in the sample. My spreadsheet with the results is here.
When looking at the data overall, there isn’t a huge gap between the number of hits in the top half of the list (nine) and the bottom half (seven). But if you look at the successful players in the bottom half, nearly all of them had a regime change after a bad rookie season.
Trevor Lawrence didn’t thrive until Doug Pederson took over, and Tua turned his career around once Mike McDaniel arrived. Jared Goff improved drastically under McVay, and Ryan Tannehill didn’t become a quality starter until Miami traded him to the Titans. In the bottom third of the list, only Josh Allen improved under the same regime, and that included a complete overhaul of Buffalo’s OL and weapons, along with significant individual improvement from Allen.
The top supporting casts on this list generally had successful rookie years. Players with top-25% supporting casts include Mac Jones, Carson Wentz, RGIII, Jameis Winston, Andrew Luck, Lamar Jackson, and Cam Newton. While it didn’t necessarily indicate long-term success, supporting cast certainly seemed to influence Year 1 performance for rookie QBs. After that point, it’s the team’s job to keep a strong supporting cast around the player, and you hope the player’s career doesn’t get derailed by injury like RGIII.
