The Minnesota Vikings’ season is all but over after the Green Bay Packers boat-raced them 33-10 inside U.S. Bank Stadium. With the New Year’s Eve defeat, Minnesota falls to 7-9 and has a 2.8% chance of making the playoffs, according to ESPN FPI. The Vikings playoff hopes now cling to a victory against the controlled fury of a Detroit Lions team inside Ford Field, plus losses by Green Bay and the Seattle Seahawks, plus a loss by either the New Orleans Saints or Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
But instead of rehashing the nationally televised beatdown on both sides of the ball, today let’s take a step back and look at this season from a 30,000-foot view.
Before we do that, though, a few thoughts on Kevin O’Connell‘s decision to start Jaren Hall against the Packers. I’ve seen folks proclaim that it was a panicked decision to take the ball out of Nick Mullens‘ hands and give it to the fifth-round rookie out of BYU. Respectfully, I disagree. While there were some obvious hiccups along the way — primarily against the Las Vegas Raiders and Chicago Bears — O’Connell has manufactured a functioning offense with two different quarterbacks who produced 99.9-plus passer ratings in three games (at Atlanta, vs. New Orleans, at Cincinnati). If anything, O’Connell’s decision to start Hall against the Packers was rooted in the confidence Minnesota’s head coach had earned for his offense with Josh Dobbs and Mullens.
But here’s arguably the biggest reason why Hall got the nod. When the Vikings were fully entrenched in their Cousins negotiations in March, the Star Tribune’s Ben Goessling shared the following on his Access Vikings podcast.
“[The Vikings] haven’t had this idea of a young quarterback on a rookie contract for a long time, and I think there is some intrigue in the building with that idea. What would it look like if we had this kind of financial hack of paying a starting quarterback $7-8 million a year, rather than $30 [million], and we’re getting that level of production. If you get that guy right, that’s a big if, but if you get it right, that certainly is intriguing to some of the people in that building.”
After Mullens threw four interceptions on Christmas Eve against the Lions, O’Connell and the powers that be inside TCO Performance Center had an opportunity to see if they could maintain that 99.9-ish passer rating production, but from a signal caller that will be making roughly $1 million against the cap over the next three years. After the Call for Hall experiment failed for two quarters on Sunday night, the Vikings are back to the drawing board for their short- and long-term solution at the game’s most important position.
Enough about the Week 17 disaster against the cheeseheads. Even though the wheels fell off by dropping five of their past six games, the Vikings arguably overachieved this season. Teams aren’t supposed to be competing for playoff berths in Week 18 after the reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year misses eight games and their Pro Bowl quarterback misses the final nine games. Sean McVay didn’t come remotely close to sniffing the playoffs after losing Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford for eight games last season; his Los Angeles Rams finished 5-12. Kyle Shanahan’s San Francisco 49ers finished 6-10 in 2020 after they lost Jimmy Garoppolo for 10 games and Deebo Samuel for nine games.
Since we’re talking about the 2022 Rams and 2020 49ers, let’s look at how these offenses compare to the 2023 Vikings. After all, these three teams suffered similar injury misfortune to their QB1 and WR1.
- 2022 Rams
- 27th in points
- 32nd in yards
- 29th in EPA/play
- 2020 49ers
- 21st in points
- 15th in yards
- 21st in EPA/play
- 2023 Vikings (through Week 17)
- 22nd in points
- 12th in yards
- 15th in EPA/play
While I recognize that Skoldiers are frustrated with O’Connell’s carousel of quarterbacks and/or his inability to better adjust his offense on the fly for each signal caller, it’s important to remember that he’s doing a better job than both McVay and Shanahan in recent years at overcoming the same unfortunate circumstances to their respective offenses.
And, my goodness, did Brian Flores’ defense overachieve this season. Even though this Vikings defense has given up an average of 30 points and 412 yards over its past three games, they still rank 12th in points and 16th in yards allowed this season. All things considered, that’s one hell of an accomplishment for a unit that has been near the bottom of the NFL in most defensive categories in each of the past three seasons.
While I’m guessing it’s easier said than done, Vikings fans should try to take a step back and look at the totality of this season. Despite the ridicule that O’Connell has earned recently, it’s a borderline miracle that this team hasn’t been eliminated from playoff contention entering Week 18.
