The Minnesota Vikings dominated the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday Night Football, yet the scoreboard tells a different story. Three disastrous offensive plays and a desperate Colts’ drive were the difference between the 13 points Indianapolis scored and a shutout. Minnesota’s offense was a red-zone turnover and two missed field goals from scoring 30-plus points.
The Vikings were such the better team that it took every calamitous snafu they could muster to not win by multiple scores. A win is a win. But what ultimately matters is how Minnesota stacks up against the best teams in the league. So, what can we take away from this game, and how much, if any, is sustainable?
Minnesota’s offense was fantastic for 90% of this game. Sam Darnold completed 82% of his passes, the offense moved the chains on 29 of 36 series, and Justin Jefferson was prepotent as usual. While Aaron Jones didn’t have his best day on the ground, the team racked up 133 rushing yards, including 46 from Cam Akers on his six carries. It was a great day — except for those few moments in which it wasn’t.
While Darnold did many great things from the pocket, his mistakes were extremely detrimental. His first interception came in the red zone on the opening Vikings drive as he scrambled to his left to evade pressure. Darnold was looking for T.J. Hockenson in the back of the end zone but either didn’t see or didn’t account for linebacker Zaire Franklin underneath the route. On the broadcast, it was difficult to tell what he was seeing. Kevin O’Connell explained that Darnold was “trying to make a play off-schedule there — they played zone coverage, split safety like we saw the majority of the night.”
He added that Darnold had “a chance to possibly find Jalen Nailor out in the flat late in the down, but I want him to be aggressive on those scrambles because he’s a very talented thrower. Might’ve just left that a little short there. If he could get it up and over the defender, maybe T.J. has a shot at it.”
Darnold’s second interception came later in the game on a dagger concept he forced to Jefferson, who was running the dig route. Jefferson was effective all night, but the Colts blanketed him on that play. Jordan Addison crossed the face of the middle-safety on a corner/pylon and may have scored had he gotten the ball on the play. Darnold had already come off that read, which was likely his first.
O’Connell remained undeterred. “My trust in Sam,” he said, “is something that I think is going to be a winning edge for our football team.”
Jefferson had catches of 20 yards, 24 yards, 22 yards, 21 yards, and 41 yards throughout the game, totaling 137 yards on seven receptions. So Darnold defaulting to JJ at times is understandable, but there are enough weapons on the team to spread the ball around. Addison made one of the catches of the year on Minnesota’s first touchdown, Josh Oliver had a career-high five catches, and Hockenson made a real impact on a conservative snap count in his first game back. If Darnold can play more maturely as the season marches on, it will be extremely difficult to put a lid on this passing game.
However, the most back-breaking turnover of the day came on Grover Stewart‘s strip sack. On what was a rough day for the interior of Minnesota’s offensive line, Stewart bulled over Garrett Bradbury en route to a choke-slam strip-sack of Darnold that resulted in Indy’s only touchdown of the day. The issue with this play was that Darnold was hit in the head/neck area for the second consecutive week by a defender, and the officials didn’t call the penalty. Stewart clobbered Darnold in the head with his forearm as he swung him down.
A flag was initially thrown before the officials picked it up. The infraction was obvious on the broadcast’s slow-motion replay — and from several real-time angles. The refs contended that it was not a facemask, so they picked up the flag. However, the rulebook states that any contact of the defender’s head, shoulder, or forearm to the quarterback’s head and neck area is a 15-yard penalty and an automatic first down. Instead, the Colts took a 7-0 lead.
To keep the team in the game, Minnesota’s defense forced two takeaways, three punts, and a turnover on downs on Indianapolis’ eight meaningful possessions. Following Darnold’s second interception, with the Vikings leading just 14-7, the Colts began their drives at Minnesota’s 25-yard line. With a golden opportunity to snatch momentum back with a game-tying touchdown, they held Indianapolis to two yards on three plays and were forced to settle for a 40-yard kick.
Minnesota held the Colts’ best offensive weapon, running back Jonathan Taylor, in check. He only logged 47 yards on 13 carries (3.7 YPC). The defense’s EPA/play allowed in this game was -0.32, the third-best performance in the league this week and the 33rd-best single-game defensive performance of the year. Only their outings in Weeks 1 and 5 against the New York Giants and New York Jets, respectively, were stronger.
Brian Flores’ defense allowed one real scoring drive, but even that one comes with caveats. Joe Flacco engineered a six-play, 34-yard drive to set up a 54-yard Matt Gay field goal. The Colts were down by 11 with no timeouts and 2:04 on the game clock, so the Vikings weren’t playing the same kind of aggressive defense they had to that point in the game. They just wanted to force Indianapolis to burn as much clock as possible. Plus, on the final play of the drive, Cam Bynum‘s interception was called back on a defensive pass interference call.
The unit pressured Joe Flacco on 43% of his dropbacks, and the coverage was strong throughout, forcing constant checkdowns. Late in the fourth quarter, when the Flacco needed to hold the ball longer to throw it deep, Minnesota’s front started getting home for sacks and pressures every dropback. Rookie Dallas Turner showed some great flashes off the edge against right tackle Braden Smith. He contributed to two of the three sacks the Vikings logged on this drive. Jonathan Greenard got home twice after hurrying Flacco’s throws all day.
Safety Harrison Smith also looked great, having perhaps his best game of the season. He recovered the fumble to halt Indianapolis’ first drive, which was its most effective of the game. He also shut down the penultimate Colts drive with back-to-back huge hits on receivers to jar passes loose.
The defense’s return to form is extremely encouraging, even given the competition. The Colts’ offense has been good under Flacco throughout the year. In Week 4 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, another top defense, Flacco posted an EPA/dropback higher than any Darnold game this season, and the offense yielded a higher EPA/play than any Vikings performance this season. Flacco’s performance against Minnesota was by far the worst of his four appearances this year.
While concerns about the defense may be quelled for the time being, the offense still has some wrinkles to iron out. You must get more than 21 points out of an offensive performance this commanding. 33% of Darnold’s incompletions were interceptions. He still seems to feel he can spin out of sacks and run backward instead of checking it down or getting to a throwaway.
But perhaps that will always be the yin and yang of an offense called by Kevin O’Connell and operated by Sam Darnold. O’Connell wants him to stay aggressive as a thrower, which is good for Darnold because he doesn’t know how not to be aggressive as a thrower. Sam Darnold giveth and Sam Darnold taketh away.
