The Minnesota Vikings were off to another new adventure when the clock struck zero. I’m not talking about the ball dropping in Times Square, nor a ball popping out of Johnny Mundt’s hands and into the clutches of the Green Bay Packers.
I’m talking about the end of the 2023 season. Minnesota is on the brink of elimination after Green Bay beat them 33-10 on Sunday night. The Vikings could technically still get into the playoffs, but they would need a lot of things to go right in a year where almost everything has gone wrong. That leads to an important 2024 season, which could decide the fate of Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s competitive rebuild.
It starts with where the Vikings were one year ago: charging into the playoffs at 13-4 with a division title. They had a home playoff game and an opponent that was manageable enough.
The “Daniel Jones x Ed Donatell” collaboration was too much for the Vikings to overcome, and they went into an offseason with plenty of questions. They released old faces such as Adam Thielen, Eric Kendricks, and Dalvin Cook, and they acquired new ones like Marcus Davenport and Byron Murphy Jr. in free agency.
Even after a draft that added Jordan Addison and Mekhi Blackmon, it seemed like Minnesota’s goal was unclear. Were the Vikings trying to win? Or were they looking to shed salary to reset a few years down the road?
The football gods provided a clear path to the latter option when Minnesota got off to a 1-4 start. Three-straight wins – including one over the San Francisco 49ers – followed before Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles on Oct. 29.
Cousins’ injury represented a crossroads for Adofo-Mensah. He could lean into the opportunity to get a high draft pick and combine it with ample salary cap space the following spring. Or he could forge ahead and try to make the playoffs without Cousins under center.
We all know what happened next. The Vikings played some Creed, rode Josh Dobbs and Nick Mullens, tried Jaren Hall, and wound up in the same eight-to-nine-win purgatory they’ve lived in since their last playoff win in January 2020.
Minnesota still has a chance to get into the playoffs if they can beat the Detroit Lions next week. But a more interesting question is, where do the Vikings go from here? And do they even have a direction to get to where they want to be?
The ideal option for ownership is to keep forging ahead. Cousins is a pending free agent and could command one last fully guaranteed big-money deal. The Vikings have pushed this idea themselves. Cousins came out of the tunnel with a giant boombox against Detroit, and they had him and his son blow the Gjallarhorn in full “Kirko Chainz” persona before Sunday’s loss to the Packers.
Theoretically, a reunion between Cousins and the Vikings makes sense, if only for a year. But it also ignores the key to competing in the NFC.
The NFC has become an arms race where the team with the best supporting cast wins. The San Francisco 49ers have an MVP candidate in Brock Purdy. Still, an infrastructure that includes offensive mastermind Kyle Shanahan and dynamic weapons Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey has elevated him.
The Philadelphia Eagles have also risen to the top of the NFC hierarchy with one of the league’s best offensive lines, top weapons in A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, and a play so unstoppable that other teams have sabotaged themselves trying to replicate it.
Even the Lions have joined the party surrounding Jared Goff with a dominant running game led by Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, top targets in Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam, and an offensive line that ranks among the NFL’s elite.
By the way, each team (except for Detroit) has a solid defense, meaningfully separating them from their infrastructure.
The competitive rebuild has put some of these components in place. The Vikings have an elite array of weapons with Justin Jefferson, Addison, and T.J. Hockenson, and their offensive line has improved after struggling for the past decade.
With Kevin O’Connell at the controls, the Vikings have a solid infrastructure – until you consider what they might not have next season.
Aside from Cousins’ free agency, the Vikings face several critical decisions. Danielle Hunter reclaimed his spot as one of the best edge rushers in the NFL and is looking at a big-money contract this spring. Harrison Smith could retire, and Jordan Hicks could also hit the market to cash in on a strong season. Mix in Brian Flores’s potential departure, and you could see a much different team next year.
With Rob Brzezinski, the Simone Biles of salary cap gymnastics, in their corner, the Vikings could opt to forge ahead. They could re-sign Cousins and Hunter and figure out how to sign cornerstones such as Jefferson and Christian Darrisaw. But that would push more money into the future and bring Minnesota to a similar spot that led to the previous regime’s demise.
That could lead to a different scenario where the Vikings don’t fully rebuild but keep an eye on the future. Minnesota did this by releasing several veterans last year. But they could make more lucrative commitments with the $37.2 million in cap space.
It’s the strategy the Eagles used to take a good team that made the playoffs in 2021 and turned them into a juggernaut during the 2022 season. The formula was adding several key pieces in free agency after turning in a spectacular draft.
Perhaps stealing L’Jarius Sneed from the Kansas City Chiefs could help bolster the secondary. Maybe a gamble on Chase Young could give Hunter an effective tag-team partner or a cost-effective replacement. The Vikings could also add an impact player on a defensive line that lives anonymously.
There’s also a need at third receiver and help in the backfield. K.J. Osborn is a free agent, and the Alexander Mattison and Ty Chandler duo couldn’t step up into the lead role.
That might lead the Vikings to say goodbye to Cousins and look for his successor in the draft. While Caleb Williams is out of the picture, a top-10 pick could allow them to select Jayden Daniels or trade up for Drake Maye.
While this might result in a step back in 2024, it could lead to a similar result where the Vikings are between 7-to-10 wins but have a clear path toward contending in the NFC.
Right now, that path doesn’t seem to exist. But Adofo-Mensah could create it if he stays the course during his competitive rebuild.
