In life, our level of happiness and fulfillment often comes down to our expectations.
I worked at an Olive Garden in Tallahassee for two years in college. Our most upset guests were frequently people who, unfortunately, had very mismanaged expectations. If you rolled into the Tallahassee Olive Garden expecting a fancy meal of authentic Italian food cooked by Tuscan-trained chefs, chances are you were going to be dreadfully disappointed.
Suppose instead you expected an overpriced menu, slow and mediocre service, and an aggressively okay-ish meal prepared by two guys named Larry and Rhondell (both of which were about as Italian as Chef Boyardee). In that case, you might leave pleasantly surprised that the breadsticks are still pretty awesome if you dip them in the Alfredo sauce. It’s all about setting proper expectations.
There’s a certain type of fan who can only enjoy a season of football if their team brings home a Lombardi Trophy. If you’re a Minnesota Vikings fan living that way, my heart goes out to you. Kevin O’Connell and Kwesi Adofo-Mensah would love to be as competitive as possible during Year 3 of their ‘Competitive Rebuild.” Still, all signs point to this perhaps being the most “rebuild-y” year of their tenure thus far.
Journeyman bridge quarterback Sam Darnold is poised to start with a rookie sitting behind him. Franchise defensive superstar Danielle Hunter is now in Houston, and the Vikings have replaced him with a hodgepodge of other, lesser players to try and fill that void. Franchise tight end T.J. Hockenson is returning from serious injury with an ambiguous timeline. For a team doing its best to tread water in a rapidly improving division, it may be a dangerous mindset to enter this season with expectations of a division title or a serious playoff run.
So, what constitutes a successful season? If we’re measuring success this season on a more nuanced rubric than simply “playoffs or bust” or “10 wins or better,” how should we define it?
It’s all about defensive progress and proof of concept at quarterback.
The Vikings defense last year was very Jekyll and Hyde. We can all remember how fun it was to watch defensive coordinator Brian Flores go full mad scientist and aggressively attack opposing offenses. The blitz-happy Vikings led the league with a whopping 56% blitz percentage and practically lived in Cover 0, with corners hanging on for dear life while Flores brought the house. It was a fascinating and electrifying experience … when it worked.
While some games in the middle of the season against teams like the Chicago Bears, New Orleans Saints, and Las Vegas Raiders featured impressive defensive performances, it felt like Zac Taylor and the Cincinnati Bengals solved it when they tore it apart with backup QB Jake Browning in Week 15. After that, they wouldn’t hold a team under 30 points for the rest of the season.
Based on how the Vikings operated this offseason, it was clear that they realized Flores needed more than an inventive scheme and a couple of star players. They seemed to prioritize building defensive depth in free agency. Even the move to replace Danielle Hunter with the combo of Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, and first-round pick Dallas Turner seems to align with raising the floor of the pass rush at the expense of Hunter’s ceiling. This may well dovetail to maintain a less insane blitz percentage.
However it comes about, improvement on defense is necessary and would be a major step for the organization moving forward. Even if their overall statistics don’t look much better than last year, it would go a long way if they can show sustainability and develop some of the talent on the roster so they don’t just feel like a flash in the pan. But even that is probably secondary Minnesota’s most important goal this season.
Quarterback is the most obvious uncertainty hanging over the Vikings. Whether it’s Sam Darnold or rookie J.J. McCarthy, O’Connell needs to provide the fanbase with a proof of concept for the future of the position.
We’ve seen that O’Connell can be the architect of a quality offense with a veteran like Kirk Cousins at the helm, and last season showed mixed results with the rotation of other passers. There’s nothing more important than the quarterback position, though, and we need evidence that the Vikings have a viable option for the future.
I’m not sure there is much of a scenario where Darnold plays his way into being Minnesota’s franchise player, but I suppose crazier things have happened. However, if this offense can operate with some semblance of efficiency with a stop-gap quarterback, that wouldn’t certainly ease any quarterback-related anxiety the fanbase may have. But of course, it’s really all about the young gun behind Darnold.
We may not see much of McCarthy this year. Still, it’s hard to imagine calling any season the Vikings may have success if they don’t provide either a surprise playoff run or tangible signs that McCarthy is the quarterback of the future. If we see 17 games out of Darnold, he better be playing at a high enough level to warrant that.
Otherwise, it will be nigh impossible not to get antsy about why we haven’t seen the Michigan kid get his shot. And if McCarthy gets a chance to lead this offense, nothing will matter more to the organization than if he shows us reason to believe they’ve hit on their answer under center.
Count me among those preaching patience with McCarthy. We can’t judge the rookie too harshly this season, if we even see him play at all. But if we’re trying to judge whether 2024 was a success, then we need to see a runway toward liftoff for this organization in the coming years — and McCarthy is likely the one piloting the plane.
Life is all about expectations. And it may be perfectly reasonable to criticize the criteria I laid out as too high a bar to reach for a team Vegas thinks will be lucky to win seven or eight games. But as you decide where to set your bar for the organization, I urge you to look beyond the win totals this year and look for signs of promise for the years to come.
Anything they achieve beyond that? Well, you can just enjoy those extra breadsticks.