The undefeated Minnesota Vikings will host the 4-1 Detroit Lions this Sunday, with the NFC North lead on the line. Even though the four NFC North teams only have a combined five losses, the Vikings hold the tiebreaker over the Green Bay Packers after their win at Lambeau Field in Week 4. Beating the Lions would give them another tiebreaker, unofficially giving Minnesota a 2.5-game lead over the rest of the division.
However, a win would also be more significant than controlling the NFC North. Every other team in the NFC has lost at least two games, so controlling the division means controlling the conference. The Vikings have already beaten the reigning NFC champion San Francisco 49ers and own a three-game lead over them. Beating the runner-up would give Minnesota a cushion against arguably the three best teams in the conference.
It’s one thing to get to the top; it’s another to stay there. Following the Lions game, the Vikings don’t play a team with a record above .500 until November 24, when they travel to Chicago. A week later, they return home to play the 2-4 Arizona Cardinals.
Meanwhile, Detroit’s schedule doesn’t ease up in the short term. After the Vikings game, they have a home game against the 1-4 Tennessee Titans, but they have road trips to Green Bay and Houston over the next two weeks. The Lions also host a Thursday night game against the Bears on November 28.
Minnesota’s favorable schedule still gives them a nice buffer if they suffer their first loss of the season on Sunday. But a victory over the Lions would give them control immediately after the game and over the next month. Every team suffers bad losses. Therefore, even if the Vikings drop one or two games over the next month and a half, they would still be in control of the NFC’s top seed heading into December.
With a win, the Vikings would venture into uncharted territory. Although they have fielded some great teams over the years, they have usually been good in a strong NFC.
As great as the 2009 season was, Minnesota chased the New Orleans Saints all year. New Orleans began the season 13-0, securing the No. 1 seed when Minnesota lost to the Bears in a Week 16 overtime thriller. The Vikings finished the season 12-4 and traveled to the Superdome, where they lost to the Saints, 31-28, in overtime.
The situation was similar in 2017. The Vikings began 2-2 before winning eight games in a row. They finally caught up to the Philadelphia Eagles, who had won nine-straight games before losing to the Seattle Seahawks and falling to 10-2. However, the Vikings slipped up the following week, and the Eagles rebounded. Philly secured home-field advantage in Week 16, rested their starters in Week 17, and trounced the Vikings 38-7 in the NFC Championship in front of their home fans.
Since their last Super Bowl appearance, the Vikings have only controlled the NFC twice throughout the season. The last time was in 2000, when they began 11-2 before dropping their final three games and allowing the Giants to leapfrog them in the NFC standings.
The Vikings would beat the Saints before traveling to the Meadowlands for the NFC Championship game. The score was 14-0 when Minnesota’s offense first touched the ball, and they lost 41-0.
This year’s team isn’t the 1998 Vikings, but they have an opportunity to emulate them. That year, they got out to a 7-0 start and outpaced the 49ers and Atlanta Falcons all season. Minnesota hosted the Falcons in the NFC Championship game, suffering perhaps the most heartbreaking loss in team history, losing 30-27 in overtime.
Everything that could go wrong in that game went wrong, and the game still came down to a field goal. If it had been a best-of-seven series, the 15-1 Vikings would have likely won 4-1 because they were a better team. Gary Anderson just happened to miss his first field goal of the season at the worst possible time.
The current iteration of the Vikings prides itself on being process-oriented. Throughout their 5-0 start, Kevin O’Connell has repeatedly said that although he’s proud of the results, he doesn’t care about them. That means he isn’t counting on balls to bounce his way and escaping with one-score wins like the 2022 Vikings did before they got thumped by the Giants in the Wild Card round. He wants the team to be consistent. Even if there are slip-ups and adversity, the team can recover.
If they can keep that intense focus on process, a victory Sunday would bring the Vikings one step closer to being the NFC’s top seed and potentially hosting an NFC Championship game. Home teams are likelier to win conference title games, and U.S. Bank Stadium has proven to be a massive home-field advantage. When it comes to the “process,” the best version of the Vikings is stronger at U.S. Bank Stadium than its best version is on the road.
According to NextGenStats, the Vikings have a 93% probability of making the playoffs. Losing to the Lions this Sunday would only drop them to a 90% probability. A victory would put them at 97%. The season doesn’t hinge on Sunday’s game, but a victory would go a long way in Minnesota’s playoff fortunes.
