Twins

Can Austin Martin Have An Edouard Julien Moment?

Photo Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

One of the most intriguing storylines for the Minnesota Twins in 2024 was the number of prospects who could make their big-league debut at some point this season. Outside of Brooks Lee, Austin Martin is the most intriguing Twins prospect set to make his big-league debut in 2024.

It felt like Martin was close to reaching the majors, but it wasn’t expected to happen this early in the 2024 season. But Royce Lewis’ quadricep injury will keep him out of the lineup for months. Lee felt like the easy replacement until a back injury forced Minnesota’s hand, and the Twins promoted Martin one game into the season.

The Twins expect Lee to be back within the month and is a better fit at third for an extended period than Martin. However, most prospects who reach the majors eventually return to the minor leagues.

Unofficially, it also feels like a limited major-league stay for Martin because he’s wearing No. 82. Still, recent history shows that Martin has an opportunity to make an excellent first impression, even if it’s a brief stint. Edouard Julien made the most of limited time early in the 2023 season. Now Martin is in a similar situation to have his Julien Moment.

In April 2023, Julien appeared in only eight games before returning to Triple-A St. Paul. Over that stretch, he had a 96 wRC+, a .720 OPS, and two home runs. Minnesota sent Julien back down in late April before another call-up in May. By June, he had become a Twins fixture. But his early stint kickstarted a rookie season where he hit .263/.381/.459 slash line with a 136 wRC+ and 16 home runs.

MLB.com ranked Martin as Minnesota’s No. 2 overall prospect two years ago. But after generating 89 wRC+ in 2022 and playing just 67 games in 2023, he fell to the organization’s 15th-best prospect.

Like Martin this year, Julien came into spring training last season with a chance to earn a big-league roster spot. Martin and Julien played well enough that certain parts of the fanbase were ready to give them a chance to make the opening-day roster as rookies. However, the Twins originally assigned both players to start the season on the Triple-A roster before recalling them as injury replacements.

Martin’s fall from the top of the prospect list means he might not get the same opportunities as Julien. However, Martin still has a path to becoming a super utility player and an important piece for the Twins if he can be productive in the big leagues. With his early opportunity, Martin can show Rocco Baldelli and the Twins that he can be a helpful addition.

Martin must flex his versatility, which is likely his best trait. In college, Vanderbilt put Martin all over the diamond. He played every infield position and left and right field. In the minors, he logged most of his games at shortstop (115), center field (65), and second base (46). The Twins value versatile players like Marwin Gonzalez and Willi Castro and will carve out space for them on the 25-man roster.

Martin won’t take over third base with Lewis out because Castro is a better fit there. However, that and Baldelli’s willingness to lean into mid-game substitutions means that Martin will have no shortage of opportunities in the majors, even if it’s not in a traditional starting role.

He can use his speed to make an immediate impact. The Twins only stole 86 bases in 2023, which ranked 23rd in the league. Castro, Manuel Margot, and Byron Buxton should be Minnesota’s biggest base-stealing threats this year. Still, Martin can offer value to the team as another baserunning option off the bench. Martin stole 19 bases in 67 minor league games a year ago and stole 35 stolen bases in 92 games in 2022. Martin has already made two appearances as a pinch runner for Minnesota, and Baldelli will likely continue to use him in that role if Martin is available over the next few weeks.

Julien isn’t as versatile as Martin. He’s a second baseman who could also play first or DH. But Julien was a highly anticipated prospect because of his ability to hit baseball. Julien’s .839 OPS last year kept him in the big leagues, while Martin will need to hit to stay in the majors.

Martin is a career .256/.388/.361 hitter in the minor leagues. A .750 OPS is good enough to earn a call-up, but that number will likely drop when he faces major-league pitching. Low power numbers have kept Martin from remaining a top prospect. He has only 14 home runs in 252 minor-league games. Power isn’t everything, though. Martin tried to lean into a swing designed to carry the ball through the air more consistently in 2022. But he didn’t get results, with only two home runs and a .650 OPS in Double-A that season.

The Twins and Martin decided to revert back to Martin’s original swing and approach last season, and his numbers got back in the right direction. He had a .791 OPS in St. Paul last year. It would be great if Martin had power, but he can contribute to the everyday lineup in a few ways. Martin can help diversify Minnesota’s lineup to give more balance between the power hitters with high strikeout numbers.

However, Martin can match Julien’s high-contact approach. Julien posted a 31.4 percent strikeout rate last year, and Martin nearly had half that with a 17.1 percent strikeout clip in Triple-A. Contact isn’t everything; players must also generate exit velocity. With only three at-bats in 2024, Martin has an 84.8 MPH average exit velocity with a -7.5 launch angle. His next step is creating an exit velocity closer to the league average (88.4 MPH) and reducing the launch angle to produce line drives. If he can find a way to mix in some walks and stolen bases, Martin could contribute to Minnesota’s lineup meaningfully.

Austin Martin may not be the prospect the Twins thought they were getting when they traded José Berríos for him. However, he can still find a role and be a valuable player. Martin’s current stay in the major leagues is essential to setting the tone for his role with this team, no matter how long it lasts.

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