Twins

How Did A Seller's Market Affect Minnesota's Approach At the Trade Deadline?

Photo Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota Twins fans are at a breaking point. First, the Twins announced they were decreasing payroll. Then, they said they wouldn’t add a starting pitcher in free agency. Next thing you know, you can’t watch a Twins game on television. Even if you do, you have to pay an exorbitant amount for the package to watch the games.

For many, the trade deadline was the last straw. Anyone watching (or who can watch) the Twins knows they could have used an extra arm at the deadline. Although they acquired Trevor Richards, it was one of the least impactful moves of the season and left Twins fans wanting more.

If you were already mad about Target Field not having a roof, this will dissuade anyone from driving from Fargo to see Joe Mauer’s Hall of Fame celebration this week. However, if you take a deep breath and remove all of the outside noise, there’s a question that Derek Falvey and the rest of the front office must have asked themselves.

Is a level-headed approach the best approach?

Many believed the MLB trade deadline was going to be a dud. Adding a third wild card spot was supposed to create more contenders. However, it seemed to create a logjam of teams that didn’t know what they were going to do.

When everybody woke up Wednesday morning, eight teams were within five games of a wild card spot in their respective leagues. All three National League division leaders own at least a 5.5-game advantage over their counterparts, and the American League has an elite class featuring the Cleveland Guardians, Baltimore Orioles, and New York Yankees.

The Twins were stuck between the two groups. They had ridden out a spending storm in free agency where Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell turned out to be lemons and still managed to be in a wild card spot despite shedding $30 million in payroll over the offseason.

If the deadline was as quiet as some predicted, it may have been the perfect market for the Twins to sneak in and acquire an arm that they needed. Of course, that wasn’t what happened.

The trade deadline caused a frenzy of passengers trying to change out of a canceled flight. Most of the teams that figured to stay pat became sellers. Contending teams stockpiled their rosters to keep up in an evolving arms race. The Twins stood there like nothing was happening. From a baseball standpoint, it might have been their best decision.

The rumors coming into the deadline was that the Twins were “hamstrung” by payroll constraints. While Bob Nightengale’s report struck a nerve with Twins fans, it may have meant they were looking at the rental market more than investing in a long-term piece.

Minnesota’s rotation has held up to this point, with Pablo LópezJoe Ryan, and Bailey Ober as their top trio. Despite a rough outing against the New York Mets on Monday night, Simeon Woods Richardson has shown capable of starting with a short leash. Minnesota’s need was more about upgrading the fifth spot, which has seen Louie VarlandChris Paddack, and Anthony DeSclafani fail to take hold.

Even looking into the future, adding a long-term asset may not have made sense. David Festa and Zebby Matthews could contend for a starting spot next spring, and Paddack remains under contract. That created a need, but only if the market dictated a fair deal.

But that was not the case. Yusei Kikuchi was a popular trade target as he was set to head to free agency after this season. However, the Houston Astros jumped in and gave up No. 9 prospect Jake Bloss, No. 13 prospect Will Wagner, and rookie outfielder Joey Loperfido to the Toronto Blue Jays to make a deal happen.

According to Nightengale’s report, Erick Fedde was another big rental name, and the Twins were eyeing him. Nightingale said there would be a divisional tax for trading Fedde in the division, and that’s before the White Sox reportedly asked the St. Louis Cardinals for former super-prospect Jordan Walker in return.

Instead, Fedde turned out to be the centerpiece of a three-team blockbuster that also involved a potential target in Michael Kopech. Tommy Pham, Tommy Edman, and Miguel Vargas were also involved in the deal, which turned out to be an outrageous price for a pitcher who posted a 5.81 ERA in 2022 and pitched in Korea last season.

Even the relief market – which the Twins could have used to upgrade from Steven Okert and Caleb Thielbar on the left-handed side – had an exorbitant price. Left-hander Tanner Scott was the biggest prize. However, the Miami Marlins traded him for 23-year-old rookie Adam Mazur and a package that included their No. 2 prospect, pitcher Robby Snelling.

More pitching flew off the board when Zach Eflin went to the Baltimore Orioles for No. 10 prospect Mac Horvath and No. 17 prospect Jackson Baumeister. Miami traded reliever Trevor Rogers to Baltimore for Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers, two young players from baseball’s deepest farm system.

Perhaps Jack Flaherty was the cheapest rental on the market, considering what the Tigers received from the Los Angeles Dodgers. But the Tigers were never going to deal Flaherty within the division unless they received a godfather offer.

That doesn’t even include the price of position players, which saw Jazz Chisholm Jr., Jorge Soler, and Eloy Jiménez change addresses. Each of these deals required a larger price than expected and would have required the Twins to give up a bigger name in return.

That’s why Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported the Twins were shopping Max KeplerJhoan Duran, and Manuel Margot at the deadline to make a deal happen. Even then, it may not have been enough to consummate a deal that could have involved another top-10 prospect, such as Festa, Matthews, and Luke Keaschall.

If you look at Minnesota’s decisions in a vacuum, it makes sense why they decided to sit one out. However, it’s not the only factor fueling angst — or even apathy — among Twins fans.

The Twins are a better team on the field than they were a year ago, but they are squandering their goodwill off of it. Fans viewed the trade deadline as an opportunity for the Twins to reverse that trend. Instead, they’re hearing about how every returning player and call-up for the next two months is “just like a trade.”

But making a trade for public relations is usually a disaster and doesn’t help the product on the field. The front office had to walk a fine line during the trade deadline, as fans’ anger is aimed at ownership, and many believe that the Pohlad family was the reason they did nothing.

What we know now is that may not have been the case. The trade deadline was crazier than expected, and the Twins got caught in the crossfire. While a move would have been beneficial, it wasn’t completely necessary to the point where they would have overpaid for an upgrade.

That means Minnesota’s best approach was to hold a quiet deadline, even if it upset some fans.

Twins
Locked On Twins: Predicting Twins Players 2025 Futures — Part 6 (Louie Varland to Ryan Jeffers)
By Brandon Warne - Nov 8, 2024
Twins
Who Should the Twins Bring In To Replace Carlos Santana?
By Lou Hennessy - Nov 8, 2024
Twins

Locked On Twins: Predicting Twins Players 2025 Futures — Part 5 (Cole Sands to Justin Topa)

Photo Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

How do the players from the 2024 Twins project moving forward, and are they in the team’s plans for 2025? In this edition of Locked On Twins, […]

Continue Reading