It’s been a long time since a Minnesota Twins starter has thrown nine quality starts in a row. Fifteen years, to be exact, meaning Bailey Ober achieved something on Friday that a Twins pitcher hasn’t done since Nick Blackburn in 2009. Blackburn threw nine consecutive quality starts, topping it off with six shutout innings against the Cleveland Guardians.
Outside of Ober’s first start of the season against the Kansas City Royals on March 31, where he gave up eight runs in 1⅓ innings, he’s been Minnesota’s most consistent starter. In 2008 and 2009, Blackburn was the same kind of pitcher for the Twins rotation when he posted back-to-back seasons of a win-loss record of 11-11.
Blackburn’s win-loss record doesn’t tell the whole story, though. Blackburn produced nine straight quality starts during his second straight 11-11 season in 2009. So, how does that stretch compare to Ober’s active stretch?
Opponents
Blackburn never faced the same team twice over his nine consecutive quality starts. Minnesota’s offense propelled him to his first victory when it exploded for a 20-1 win over the Chicago White Sox at what was then called U.S. Cellular Field. Blackburn threw seven shutout innings, and Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer, Joe Crede, and Matt Tolbert provided home runs off future Twins starter Bartolo Colon.
After blowing out the White Sox, the Twins faced the Boston Red Sox’s juggernaut lineup. Boston had multiple All-Stars, including David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Jason Bay, and Jason Varitek. On paper, the Red Sox were the hardest team he faced over this stretch.
None of the teams they played after Boston made the postseason. Blackburn pitched against the Tampa Bay Rays and Seattle Mariners, then made four straight starts against teams with losing records: the Oakland Athletics, Pittsburgh Pirates, Milwaukee Brewers, and Kansas City Royals. The streak ended with a start against the Tigers, who would have the biggest game against the Twins later in the season.
Conversely, Ober faced multiple teams twice during his stretch. Ober started his streak with back-to-back starts against the Oakland A’s, which included the first complete game of his career. He also made two starts against the White Sox and Detroit Tigers and one against the Philadelphia Phillies, Mariners, and Guardians.
Strikeout to walk numbers
Blackburn was never a strikeout pitcher. During this stretch, Blackburn averaged a walk for every two strikeouts, totaling 28 strikeouts and 14 walks in 67 innings of work. The two-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio highlighted Blackburn’s pitch-to-contact approach. He embodied the method Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson wanted to see from most of his starters at the end of the Metrodome era.
On the other hand, Ober has had a phenomenal strikeout to walk over his nine consecutive quality starts. Ober has tallied 72 strikeouts compared to 13 walks in 61⅓ innings. He is averaging 5.5 strikeouts for every walk in this stretch, surpassing the strikeout-to-walk numbers of any Twins pitcher from Blackburn’s time.
Hitters fairing off them
A starter can’t make nine consecutive starts without beating the odds against the hitters they face. Blackburn held opponents to a .252/.293/.380 triple slash line, .673 OPS, and a .263 batting average on balls in play. Blackburn allowed six home runs over his nine quality starts but produced a 1.88 ERA.
These nine starts were arguably the best stretch of starts during his career, even though hitters still produced decent numbers off his pitches. In 2009, Blackburn led the team in innings pitched with 205.2 and led all starters with a 4.03 ERA. If not for Blackburn’s stretch of quality starts, the Twins may not have won the division that year.
However, hitters have had a much harder time trying to hit off Ober over his nine consecutive quality starts. Over his 61.1 innings of work, opponents have only had a triple-slash of .152/.204/.284, a .488 OPS, and a .188 batting average on balls in play. Compared to Blackburn, Ober has been nearly unhittable against hitters since his June 16 start against the A’s.
Following Joe Ryan’s injury, Ober has been one of Minnesota’s most dependable starters going in the final month and a half of the season. If he can continue this stretch beyond nine quality starts, it’ll help the Twins vie with Cleveland for the division title.
Twins results as a team
As great as quality starts are, Minnesota’s results during any quality start stretch may not equal that of the starters. Blackburn had a 5-2 win-loss record over his nine quality starts, but the Twins went 5-4. They lost games to the A’s and Mariners after removing Blackburn from the game.
Ober and the 2024 Twins have faired much better than Blackburn did in 2009. Ober has a 7-1 record over these last nine starts, while Minnesota has a 7-2 record in these starts. His only loss came in the first game of the doubleheader against the White Sox on July 10. Ober’s lone no-decision came against the Mariners on the road on June 28 after six innings of one-run ball.
He will take the mound again for the Twins on Thursday, allowing him to extend this quality start into double digits. The Rangers are 55-65 and have only won three of their last 10 games. There’s a good chance Ober could extend his streak to 10 and bring the Twins within a half-game of the Guardians for the division lead.
