The start of the 2024 season for the Minnesota Twins has gone poorly, to say the least. Their lineup is among the bottom three in baseball in OPS (.610), batting average (.195), slugging percentage (.329), and runs batted in (61). Only four hitters on the active roster have managed to maintain their OPSes over the league average mark of .698.
Minnesota’s schedule hasn’t been incredibly challenging yet. They’ve faced off against their divisional opponents four times, including the Detroit Tigers twice, and have a 2-6 record against non-divisional foes. They enter Monday having played only 20 games and managed a 7-13 record.
Many fans are losing hope in the team as the offense continues to struggle. Louie Varland has jeopardized his rotation spot after allowing four walks in 2 ⅔ innings. Fortunately for the Twins, they have one more opponent in the division to face for the first time, and it’s the only team in the division worse than they are.
The Chicago White Sox.
Chicago entered 2024 in full tanking mode, selling off their best pitcher, Dylan Cease, and filling their positions with journeyman veterans past their prime. Their start to the year has been much poorer. They’ve only won three of their first 21 games. Beginning Monday, the Twins will face these White Sox in seven of their next ten games. This run of the schedule could determine Minnesota’s path for the rest of the season.
The White Sox arrived at Target Field Monday for a four-game series and the first seasonal match-up with matchups. Their hitting and pitching are (somehow) much worse than Minnesota’s.
Chicago’s offense is the worst in MLB in OPS (.552), batting average (.188), slugging percentage (.288), and runs batted in, with only 42 on the year as a team. Only three players on their active roster have an OPS over the league average: Gavin Sheets (.882), Paul DeJong (.862), and backup catcher Korey Lee (.738).
Having only two everyday players in their lineup off to good starts gives Minnesota’s pitchers the advantage in climbing out of the hole their first 20 games have been. While the Twins pitching staff hasn’t been as bad as the offense, their rotation still ranks in the bottom third of the league in ERA (4.29), opponents batting average (.249), and home runs allowed with 28.
For a starter like Chris Paddack, who’s allowed 13 earned runs in his 14 innings, the White Sox are the ideal team to be facing to bounce back from a bad start to the year. He’ll be on the mound Monday night for the Twins. He’s never faced Sheets before, but he’s faced DeJong four times and has always had the better of as DeJong’s 0 for 4 in his career against Paddack.
Jonathan Cannon will make his second start on Monday. His fastball averages 94.7 MPH, but his off-speed and breaking ball pitches hover below 90 MPH. He’s not much of a strikeout pitcher, either. Cannon has only recorded three over five innings in his MLB debut on April 17.
The Twins have the second-highest whiff rate against pitches in MLB, at 29.2%, and they need a pitcher like Cannon for their hitters to bounce back against. The Twins are still outside the top 10 for strikeouts by a team in MLB this year, but their 198 in 657 at-bats is an alarming 30.1% strikeout rate.
Minnesota’s matchup against the White Sox for game one of this four-game series is favorable on paper. But even when you play the worst team in the league seven times in 10 days, there’s still the possibility they will get a game or two on the Twins, especially if the offense doesn’t turn around soon.
Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers, and Austin Martin remain the only four Twins with OPSes above the league average. The good news is that over the last five games, Byron Buxton and Willi Castro have had batting averages of over .250 and have reduced their strikeouts.
Nonetheless, Twins fans are in panic mode, as the results of these first two games were woeful, especially for the lineup. The next 10 games against the White Sox and Los Angeles Angels will be make-or-break time to determine whether these Twins can still repeat themselves as division champions or slip into a rebuilding season.
The Twins are eight games behind the first-place Cleveland Guardians, with an American League-best 16-6 record. Of course, no team can maintain this hot pace Cleveland has had all year, but it’s a long road the Twins face back to the top. And if they don’t get the momentum in their lineup now to beat up the worst pitching in all of MLB, they might not have it again this season before it’s too late.
