It’s becoming increasingly difficult for Minnesota Twins fans to focus on anything besides the plumes of black smoke rising from under the hood of their relief corps. Griffin Jax has been otherworldly and cemented himself as one of the premier relief arms in the game. Cole Sands has been a pleasant surprise with a 3.02 ERA in 59 ⅔ innings pitched. However, many fans believe the Twins can’t trust any other arms in the current group.
And that is an incredible disservice to Jhoan Durán.
After starting the season on the injured list with an oblique strain, many seem to believe that his stuff has regressed considerably to the point that he’s no longer one of the filthiest closers in the game. If you only look at his 3.77 ERA this year compared to his 2.15 ERA in his first two seasons, it’s clear his results haven’t followed suit to the same degree. But I believe that’s too simplistic of a mindset when quantifying his present and future value.
Look at some of the underlying data that suggests Durán is still an elite talent, and you’ll find that including him in the group of scuffling relievers is mostly unfounded.
First, people have focused on his fastball. Durán no longer touches 104 MPH with it, as he had semi-regularly in 2022 and 2023. That pitch averaged a ludicrous 101.8 MPH last season, but Durán only averages 100.4 MPH this year. That decrease is notable, but I don’t think it signifies as much imminent doom as many seem to believe it does. Instead of having the highest average fastball velocity as he did in 2023, he’s dipped to… No. 3. He went from elite to — still elite.
And that decrease hasn’t even led to that much regression. Yes, the batting average against has gone from .213 last season to .278 this year. However, the ever-important expected batting average still suggests Durán’s opponents should only have a batting average around the Mendoza line (.203).
If Durán were a starting pitcher who averaged 91 MPH on his heater and then saw that velocity dip by 1.4 MPH, that would be a critical hit. However, the fact that he has still pushed 103 MPH shows that he still has the juice, even if it takes some extra effort to get to it on the squeeze.
Durán’s whiff rate on that offering is nearly identical (35.9% this year compared to 35.7% in 2023), so he still gets plenty of swing-and-miss. He’s allowed only six extra-base hits on the year, all doubles.
All three of his offerings have been above average this year, whether you look at it from the lens of the damage he’s been able to limit or the expected numbers that suggest he’s been unlucky. But the overall results, especially the sacred ERA, make it seem like he’s not the same pitcher anymore.
Critics will argue that hitters are hitting Durán significantly harder when they make contact now, but that’s untrue. Absolute fake news. Durán’s hard-hit percentage has improved this year (35.7% to 38%), and his opponents’ line drive rate is seventh-best among all relievers at 17%.
However, those same critics would have a better argument if they focused on the massive decrease in chase percentage, otherwise known as the ability to get hitters to offer at pitches outside the strike zone. Durán had a strong 30.1% figure in 2023, but he’s seen his opponents take more of a patient approach by spitting on those same offerings in 2024. They’ve adjusted to him in this regard, and now it’s on him to adjust to them. That’s a reasonable growing pain for a pitcher who just turned 26 and still has fewer than 200 innings pitched at the big-league level.
Instead, fans who are frustrated with the team’s recent performance (and justifiably so) want to diagnose the bullpen’s issues as a complete system failure aside from Jax and Sands, and that simply isn’t the case. Yes, there is massive uncertainty with the front half of the bullpen, especially after getting little value from each of the five relievers they brought in over the offseason and the July 30 trade deadline. That needs reconciliation after the season as they look to improve for 2025.
But Durán isn’t the source of the black smoke currently coming from under this car’s hood. Instead, he may be one of the best candidates to help clear some of it away in time. They just have to keep it on the road for a little while longer.
