The Minnesota Twins won the American League Central last year and snapped their infamous 18-game playoff losing streak en route. They also won their first postseason series win since 2002 in front of two electric Target Field crowds. But the team’s lack of a TV contract means they will lower their team-record $159.9 million payroll in 2023 to somewhere in the $125 to 140 million range. While defensible from a business standpoint, reducing the payroll halted Minnesota’s attempt to build momentum off the 2023 season.
Still, it’s not hard to see Minnesota’s offseason looking much different, even if they planned to spend as much as they did last year.
Twins President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey has signed one free agent so far. A one-year, $1 million buy-low contract for reliever Josh Staumont isn’t getting the fanbase to purchase tickets. The team’s main offseason to-do list likely is to gain pitching depth. Ideally, they get a high-end starter to replace some of Sonny Gray’s production. They could also use some right-handed hitting outfielders, considering the team had a 24th-ranked .726 OPS against them a year ago.
Under Falvey, the Twins have typically been patient during the winters, waiting until late in the offseason to make most of their moves. However, the Twins broke their patient approach in December 2022 to fill some immediate roster holes. They signed utility infielder Kyle Farmer as insurance for Carlos Correa. They also signed Christian Vázquez to a three-year, $30 million deal to be their primary catcher and bought low on Joey Gallo (one year, $13 million).
But more of Minnesota’s young players seem ready to take on a major league workload next year. Therefore, the team may not need to fill that need of extra depth from outside the organization. Austin Martin, Willi Castro, or Nick Gordon could all be backup outfield options, and the Twins could use Martin and Castro against left-handed pitching. José Miranda is also an option against lefties if he bounces back next year.
Even with last year’s budget, the Twins may have decided to lean on their organizational depth anyway due to the high-end but ultimately weak free-agent class this winter. Shohei Ohtani, Yoshi Yamamoto, and Cody Bellinger are big headliners for this class. Still, Minnesota typically doesn’t sign high-end free agents, even in years when they have a higher payroll. The not particularly strong free agent market further makes things difficult for the Twins because teams are picking up any positive-value player at exorbitant rates.
Teoscar Hernandez, 31, is a nice hitter in the prime of his career who posted a .817 OPS against lefties last season and has experience playing all three outfield positions. He would be a solid fit for the Twins in a typical year. However, Hernandez got a 1-year, $23.5 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers this winter after only recording 1.8 fWAR in 2023. For perspective, Byron Buxton will earn a $15 million base salary next year.
Former Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Lucas Giolito has the makeup and raw stuff that Falvey likely would have loved to work with. But the Boston Red Sox offered him a two-year, 38 million contract out of Minnesota’s price range. Giolito has a good track record but has a 4.89 ERA over the last two years. Hernandez and Giolito have some nice upside. Still, they would be too pricey for the Twins to afford with last season’s payroll.
Even if the free agent market isn’t deep, the Twins could have used that money to retain impact players. Instead, Gray signed a 3-year, $75 million deal with the St. Louis Cardinals. Minnesota also wasn’t willing to match the two-year deal the Detroit Tigers offered Kenta Maeda.
Gray had a 2.79 ERA and finished second in Cy Young voting. Reportedly, the Twins and Gray had mutual interest in a return. But Falvey has never signed a free-agent pitcher to a $50 million-plus deal. It also would have been too much to ask Gray to continue to put up his peak production numbers. Maeda is a nice back-end starting pitcher, but the Twins already have five starters ready to go if the season began today.
Given their payroll reduction, most fans expect the Twins to use the trade market to upgrade their roster. But that isn’t all that different than how they typically approach roster-building. Minnesota has always used trades to upgrade its roster. Last year, the Twins built the bulk of their starting rotation through trades. The team also hasn’t shied away from giving up young talent to do so.
The Twins traded 2021 first-round pick Chase Petty to Cincinnati for Gray. They stunned the fanbase by trading Luis Arraez, but Minnesota found an ace in Pablo López. After spring training started in 2020, the Twins traded for Maeda, sending flame-throwing pitching prospect Brusdar Graterol to the Dodgers. Big free-agent signings are fun for a fanbase, but the trade market allows the team to acquire impact players who may not have chosen Minnesota in free agency. Trading prospect capital isn’t fun, but good small- and mid-market teams use the trade market as their de facto free agency.
Every offseason, every team will try to add to their bullpen. Imagine the Twins pairing Josh Hader with Jhoan Duran in the late innings. If not Hader, adding Reynaldo López or Craig Kimbrel to the back end of the bullpen could help the Twins. However, Falvey likes to build the bullpen from within due to the high risk of signing relievers to long-term deals. It would take a special circumstance for the Twins to break out of this mold.
Just because Minnesota’s payroll reduction hasn’t affected them yet doesn’t mean it won’t have a negative impact on next year’s team. Their payroll cuts have prevented the Twins from rounding out the roster by adding quality depth.
Last year, they did that by adding Taylor, Donovan Solano, and Farmer. Signing center fielder Kevin Kiermaier wasn’t a lock, but the Twins likely would have been in striking distance to land one of the top free-agent center fielders. He and fellow right-handed hitting outfielder Harrison Bader signed one-year, $10.5 million contracts. The Twins could have been in the mix on those negotiations in a typical offseason. By re-signing Maeda, the Twins would have also solidified their pitching staff for next season and taken out the urgency to add another starting arm.
Inaction makes it hard for the fanbase to be energized in the offseason. However, regardless of how much they spend, the Twins likely would be as quiet in this free-agent period even if they hadn’t reduced their spending.
