The fanbase was infuriated when the Minnesota Twins announced they were shedding payroll last winter. The Twins had just won their first playoff game in almost two decades. A few weeks later, they would embark on an offseason where they pinched pennies, “right-sized” the business, and key players walked out the door.
However, as the Twins reach the trade deadline, they’re exactly where they expected to be. The Twins are in the thick of the American League playoff race and a division title, and they need another arm (or two) to tie everything together.
Although the front office is focused on doing the most they can with their budget, the pitching bill has come due, and it might be time to pay up.
In the offseason, Sonny Gray agreed to a three-year, $75 million contract with the St. Louis Cardinals. The reigning runner-up in American League Cy Young Award voting, Gray’s 10-6 record and 3.79 ERA isn’t a surprise. However, we won’t know the long-term effects of letting him walk until he finishes the contract. Still, letting him go was a blow to a team built to compete right now.
The Twins had other options to upgrade the rotation but most have fallen flat.
Blake Snell was a popular target after winning the National League Cy Young Award last season. However, his two-year, $62 million contract was out of Minnesota’s price range. Even if he had signed with the Twins, the results haven’t been great. Snell owns an 0-3 record and a 5.83 record after being limited to nine starts with a groin injury.
Jordan Montgomery was another target after his strong postseason performance. However, he has been an even bigger free-agent bust, going 7-5 with a 6.11 ERA after signing a one-year, $25 million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Even lesser starting pitchers, such as Michael Lorenzen, could have been an option for the Twins. However, outside of acquiring Anthony DeSclafani in the Jorge Polanco trade, their plan was to wait and see what they had.
The Twins believed they already had their ace in Pablo López; his four-year, $73.5 million contract reflects that. While López has been disappointing with a 9-7 record and a 4.73 ERA, he commands a starting spot and has allowed a 2.84 ERA over his last six starts.
Meanwhile, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober have both exceeded their price points. Ryan has gone 6-6 with a 3.65 ERA this season. According to Fangraphs, his $22.2 million value has obliterated his actual salary of $759,000. Ober has also been a value, going 9-5 with a 4.04 ERA on a $762,000 salary, well below his Fangraphs estimation of $12.8 million.
López, Ryan, and Ober taking up three spots in the rotation shouldn’t have been a surprise. Still, the Twins needed to see what they had beyond them.
Minnesota needed to let Chris Paddack’s return play out, especially after agreeing to a three-year, $12.25 million contract extension while rehabbing from his second Tommy John surgery. While the comeback tour has stalled out with a couple of trips to the injured list, the Twins have a better idea of what he can provide moving forward.
That left one spot up for competition., and the results haven’t been great. DeSclafani bowed out before throwing a pitch, and Louie Varland struggled as a starting pitcher. However, the Twins discovered that Simeon Woods Richardson could pitch at the major league level, going 3-1 with a 3.27 ERA in 17 starts.
Minnesota acted like a poker player in some ways, electing to see the turn and the river instead of going all in on the flop. They have more information now than in the winter, and the Twins are in the same situation they thought they would be in the hours leading up to the trade deadline.
Minnesota entered Saturday’s game with the Detroit Tigers one game ahead of the Kansas City Royals for the third wild card spot in the American League and 4.5 games behind the Cleveland Guardians for the lead in the American League Central. Their offense ranks sixth with 4.88 runs per game, and they’ve navigated injuries to crucial players like Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, and Byron Buxton.
So what could the Twins do? They have several options.
The first is to pay off their pitching bill, which they’ve effectively pushed back until July. While spending $30 million on a player in free agency seems risky, they could get a player at a pro-rated cost for the final two months of the season.
A player like Snell, who has allowed two earned runs since returning from his groin injury, may be too risky considering the 2025 player option in his contract. However, the Twins could acquire a veteran on an expiring deal, such as Yusei Kikuchi or Nathan Eovaldi, who has a vesting option at $20 million if he reaches 300 innings.
If ownership tightens its purse strings, or the price for such a deal involves a top prospect such as Brooks Lee or Walker Jenkins, the Twins could opt to go full 2015 Royals, who used a dominant bullpen to win the World Series.
The Twins already have some strong bullpen arms in Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Brock Stewart, and they could get another arm with Justin Topa‘s return. However, they also need a left-hander because Steven Okert and Caleb Thielbar have fallen short of expectations.
Could two relievers neutralize the need for starting pitching? Perhaps. But it would be a better look than pushing the issue into the future while players like Correa mention the team’s need for pitching.
Whatever the Twins decide, the bill has come due, and it could go a long way in determining how long they can go in October.
