If there were a word to describe Max Kepler’s career, it would be temptation. The 31-year-old has shown flashes throughout his 10 years in the majors, but he’s never been able to ascend to an All-Star level. Kepler experienced peaks and valleys along the way, and his time with the Minnesota Twins seemed to be over on multiple occasions. But Minnesota’s loyalty to Kepler has never wavered, and it’s finally getting the best version of Kepler.
Kepler’s time in the Twins organization began when he signed as part of the legendary 2010 international class. Joining Jorge Polanco and Miguel Sanó, the trio was connected as they made their way through the minor leagues, and Kepler reached the majors in 2015.
His first three seasons weren’t spectacular. Kepler hit .234/.314/.418 with 56 homers and 190 RBI in 416 games. However, the Twins still believed in his upside, signing him to a five-year, $35 million contract before the 2019 season.
Kepler broke out that summer, hitting .252/.336/.519 with 36 home runs and 90 RBI. He could have had even bigger numbers if it weren’t for a late-season shoulder injury. A key member of the Bomba Squad, Kepler was on his way to stardom and was under team control for the foreseeable future, but things derailed the following year.
He led off the COVID-shortened 2020 season with a home run in Chicago. However, Kepler went on a three-year stretch where he didn’t look like the player we saw in 2019, hitting just .220/.314/.392 with 37 home runs and 120 RBI over 284 games.
The slump caused some to believe that the Twins would trade Kepler before the 2023 season. But Minnesota believed that eliminating the shift would help Kepler regain some of his power. His health was also a problem. He battled through the second half of the 2022 season with a broken right toe.
When the 2023 season began, Kepler remained in right field but struggled immediately. A pair of stints on the injured list didn’t help. However, Kepler wasn’t finding success when healthy, hitting .191/.266/.376 with seven home runs and 18 RBI on June 13.
That date may signal the moment when Kepler turned things around. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli had just called out Kepler for not executing a double steal in a game against Tampa Bay, and fans screamed louder for the team to designate Kepler for assignment. However, the Twins held on to Kepler, and he has looked like a different hitter since.
Kepler finished the 2023 season by hitting .293/.363/.535 with 17 homers and 48 RBI after June 13. While required a stint on the injured list after fouling a ball off his knee in the opening series of the 2024 season, Kepler has been on fire since his return, hitting .319/.385/.522 with two home runs and 12 RBI and owning a 12-game hitting streak entering Thursday’s game against the Seattle Mariners.
All of this is impressive, but even more so when you go back to June 13 of last year. Since then, Kepler has been hitting .298/.367/.533 with 19 homers and 60 RBI. If you extrapolate those numbers over a full 162-game season, Kepler is hitting at a level that exceeds his 2019 production, with 29 homers and 91 RBI.
A change like this usually comes from some kind of adjustment at the plate. However, Kepler has remained the same player. His 23.8 percent chase rate is in the 73rd percentile of major league hitters this season, while his 18.2 percent whiff rate and 14.1 percent strikeout rate rank in the 85th and 89th percentile, respectively.
Kepler’s average exit velocity (89.5 mph) and barrel rate (8.5%) remain a concern, but that’s never been Kepler’s game. With a level swing, Kepler’s game has been about making smart decisions at the plate, eliminating obstacles, and returning to health, which has helped him reach his potential.
The scary part is that Kepler hasn’t had protection in a lineup that has been missing Royce Lewis since Opening Day and has occasionally been without Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton this year. While Kepler’s production may not rise with a complete lineup, it makes the Twins that much better as they battle for a playoff spot this season.
Looking back on it, there were several times the Twins could have made a deal similar to the one they made with Polanco last January, sending him to Seattle for pitchers Anthony DeSclafani and Justin Topa and a pair of prospects. However, they would have traded one of their best pitchers in that move.
Kepler’s contract is up at the end of the year, which will test Minnesota’s loyalty again. But for now, they’re enjoying the best version of a player who has always had potential.
