If there is one lesson Derek Falvey has taught Minnesota Twins fans since he took over the front office in 2016, it’s been patience. Off-seasons during the Falvey era are active, but only as spring training nears.
Last offseason, Minnesota signed Christian Vázquez in December 2022, but the Twins made their biggest move last winter by re-signing Carlos Correa on January 11, 2023. A week later, they traded for Pablo López and made a deal for outfielder Michael A. Taylor days later on January 23.
Patience is a virtue. However, it seems like Minnesota’s front office is toeing the line between patience and passivity. The Twins made some trades in late January last year, but recent reports indicate no deal seems close at this time. Being too patient is a risk Minnesota can’t afford to take coming off of their best postseason run in over 20 years. At the same time, there’s no actual date for when an offseason is officially done. Falvey also knows this.
“One of the things I’ve gotten more comfortable with and more used to is the reality is there’s no bow on an offseason and then show up in spring training, and you’re good to go,” Falvey said in The Athletic. “It’s not been like that for as many years as I can remember at this point. We’ll continue to evolve the way our roster looks, the way we think about it, probably going into camp.”
Conversely, the Twins can’t wait much longer to add an impact player. Signing an impact player after spring training starts can create an awkward situation. Pitchers and catchers report to Fort Myers on February 14. Therefore, the Twins only have a few more weeks to round out their roster.
It may seem arbitrary, but teams ideally have the ability to go over their expectations and suggestions for a player during the winter. For players who arrive late, rushing into spring training can sometimes mean a lot of catching up while sometimes even being weeks behind hitting live pitching. In two recent offseasons, the Twins did most of their offseason work late, and it disrupted team dynamics.
The Twins fanbase learned how patient the front office was willing to be in the 2018 offseason. Minnesota signed reliever Addison Reed on January 18, 2018, but most of the team’s big impact moves came after the spring training began. The Twins traded for Jake Odorizzi on February 17, three days after pitchers and catchers reported that year. Then the Twins inked one-year contracts to slugger Logan Morrison on February 28 and starter Lance Lynn on March 12.
Despite spending $32.5 million on proven talent between those players, the team had a 22-27 record by Memorial Day and finished 78-84. The Twins traded Lynn at the deadline, and he finished with a 5.10 ERA in 20 starts with Minnesota. Morrison finished the season with a .644 OPS in 95 games in 2018.
The one-year contracts created a tense clubhouse. It’s not just the clubhouse issues, though. Bringing guys to the team into spring training who you expect to be key contributors puts them at a disadvantage. Sure, they can still train for the season on their own, but they have less time to spend with team management and coaches for the upcoming season and miss crucial time to get acclimated before the games begin.
A few years later, Minnesota learned this lesson again, even if it wasn’t their fault. The lockout fractured the 2022 offseason. The Twins didn’t have any high-impact signings before the lockout began in December 2021. But Falvey spent the first handful of days making trades and signings more actively than he ever had before when the lockout ended on March 10, 2022. Minnesota traded for Sonny Gray, Gary Sánchez, and Gio Urshela before the season started on April 7.
Gray was a great addition to the Twins, but he was better last year than he was in 2022. Two years ago, Gray had a 3.08 ERA in 119.2 innings. Last season, Gray had a 2.79 ERA in 184 innings. Nagging hamstring issues contributed to Gray’s less productive 2022 campaign. They forced him to go on three different injured list stints throughout the season because he couldn’t properly prepare for a full MLB season due to the lockout. Gray only made 24 starts in 2022 but rebounded to make 32 starts in 2023. Correa also struggled early in 2022, likely due in part to the quick ramp-up for the regular season.
Time to get comfortable with a new organization proved to be important for López when the Twins traded for him. He worked with Driveline to add a sweeper to his pitch mix, and Minnesota spent all spring last year helping him perfect the pitch. López threw a sweeper 21.4 percent of the time in 2023. It was his most effective pitch, with a .173 opponent batting average and +6 run value, according to Baseball Savant.
The slow offseason isn’t solely Falvey’s fault, though. Any team not named the Los Angeles Dodgers have all had relatively slow offseasons. The Twins made a big splash for Correa, and they also re-signed López last April. In a normal year, it would likely mean little money to throw around. But the payroll cuts the team did this winter make the thought of signing a high-impact free agent almost impossible.
Minnesota’s payroll reduction is the biggest factor in an uneventful offseason, but it’s not the only factor. This year’s free agent class has been relatively weak, outside of some big names like Shohei Ohtani. Even if the Twins wanted to spend money, it’s unlikely they would have re-signed Gray or made a run at Cody Bellinger. The Twins currently have more MLB-ready talent than they did a year ago.
There are some years that warrant aggressiveness from the front office. But there are other years where management is wise to stand pat. Most of their production, especially in the second half of the 2023 season, is from their rookies making an impact. Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner, and Royce Lewis led a youth movement that produced a combined 7.1 fWAR last season.
Prospects Brooks Lee and Austin Martin also are close to joining them in the big leagues next year. If the Twins add a backup center fielder and another high-level starter, they still have a roster capable of winning the AL Central again. However, this team is still far from perfect. They need to replace veterans like Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Tyler Mahle in some capacity.
And there’s nothing inherently wrong with making late signings, especially if they’re role players. They brought Donovan Solano in during the first week of spring training last year, and he became one of Minnesota’s most productive hitters, hitting .282/.369/.391 in 2023. Marwin Gonzalez was also signed on February 25, 2019, and became a super utility man for the Twins. He hit .264/.322/.414 with 15 home runs in his first season with Minnesota.
Minnesota has put together some good offseasons during the Falvey era by being methodical and intentional no matter how long it takes. They don’t need a magic date to complete their offseason signings. However, recent history shows that the Twins need to make their high-impact additions before spring training.
