There’s no running from the truth. The Minnesota Twins’ playoff hopes are diminishing day by day. The Twins only have six wins in their past 17 games, and bad-timing injuries are mounting up at the worst possible time because there are only 18 games left.
After the Kansas City Royals swept them and lost the home opener to the Anaheim Angels on Monday night, the Twins sit six games back of Cleveland for the division. They only hold a three-game lead over the Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, and Seattle Mariners for the final Wild Card spot.
The Twins have not left themselves much room for error in the Wild Card race, and they have less than a 5% chance of winning the AL Central, according to FanGraphs. Therefore, they’ll have to go on a playoff run starting in a Wild Card spot. If the Twins can continue to tread water and hold the spot through the final weeks of the season, they’ll end up facing the Houston Astros, a familiar foe from their last two playoff appearances.
The Astros are the only team they could match up against in the playoffs that they have a winning record against in the regular season at 4-2. The Yankees swept them cleanly for the season series at 0-6, and while they haven’t played their final three games against the Orioles at Target Field, the Orioles swept them in a three-game series in April. With the Twins lineup disappearing day by day, having been outscored 36-22 in September, their chances of showing up and hitting in Baltimore or New York look less and less likely.
Houston’s usual cast of Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman remain part of its lineup. However, their odds of contending have dwindled slightly due to regression and injuries.
Bregman has regressed hitting in the clutch. Last year, he had a .285/.433/.477 triple slash and .910 OPS in 151 clutch at-bats, compared to his .240/.288/.421 triple slash and .709 in 121 at-bats this season. However, Bregman is still a threat in the playoffs. Despite having a .220 batting average in the postseason last year, he had a .932 OPS, thanks to his four home runs in 31 at-bats.
However, Tucker is another story. He’s missed 81 games this season after fouling a Kyle Gibson fastball off his shin on June 3. He will play the fewest games since the pandemic season in 2020, and his numbers are staggering because of this missed time.
He led the majors with 19 home runs when he went down but has only gone 1-for-4 in the two games he’s played since returning. It’s hard to gauge whether Tucker will still be an impact player because he has played only two games since returning from the IL. Still, he’s been a deadly left-handed hitter who’s all the more dangerous when Houston pairs him with Alvarez.
Houston’s pitching has also regressed considerably compared to its peak during their dynastic run. Luis Garcia and Cristian Javier are out for the season with injuries. As age and injuries catch up, Justin Verlander, 41, is having the worst season of his career. Houston’s starting rotation has also fallen out of the top 10 MLB rankings in ERA (3.91, 11th), FIP (4.10, 13th), and BB per 9 (3.49, 27th).
They added Yusei Kikuchi at the trade deadline to stabilize the rotation, and he’s fared well in seven starts, posting a 3.07 ERA and holding opponents to a .195 batting average. However, the Twins chased Kikuchi after (x many innings) to secure their first playoff series win in 21 years last postseason. If Minnesota’s impact hitters heal in time for the playoffs, they should be able to produce offensively against him.
Houston’s starting rotation is likely their biggest weakness going into the postseason, but their bullpen is still a massive threat. Old friend Ryan Pressly had regressed with injuries and a 3.62 ERA, his highest in a single season since 2017 when it sat at 4.70. The rest of their bullpen is still one of the top five in baseball, with a 3.51 ERA, which is fourth-best in the league. They have the third-highest runners left-on-base percentage in MLB, at 76.9%, sitting only behind the Milwaukee Brewers and Cleveland Guardians.
They’ve maintained dominance thanks to their new three-headed monster combination of Josh Hader, Bryan Abreu, and 32-year-old Tayler Scott, who is in the midst of a breakout season. All three have pitched well in high-leverage situations, but the bullpen falls short in terms of the number of walks it surrenders. The Astros bullpen sits in the bottom 10 of MLB in walks allowed per nine, at 3.67, the eighth worst compared to Minnesota’s bullpen, which is 12th in MLB at 3.17 BB per nine.
However, the Twins can counter Houston’s greatest strength by drawing walks and not getting overly aggressive at the plate. But they can only do that if their lineup can make things right now and not continue their 6-15 skid since Aug. 18.
Even if the Astros limp into the postseason, they are a vastly more experienced postseason team than Minnesota. The Twins will have to play to all their strengths in only two games to avoid starting another playoff losing streak after a disappointing September.
