The Minnesota Twins are in the middle of a late-season playoff push and enter a nine-game homestand against two National League teams fighting for their postseason lives. In his Target Field return Saturday night, Sonny Gray will start for the St. Louis Cardinals in a pitching duel with Twins ace Pablo López.
It’s always gut-wrenching for fans to see a former star player go against their team. Making things worse, it seemed like the Twins wanted to retain Gray after last season. However, ownership slashed payroll last winter, and the Twins couldn’t get close to the 3-year, $75 million deal he signed with the Cardinals last November.
Fans have debated all season whether letting Gray go was a good move. It’s a fascinating situation because both sides can be completely justified in their thought process. From the team perspective, the Twins were right in some areas and wrong in projecting Gray’s impact.
Where the Twins were wrong…
Any team that can’t re-sign a big impending free agent must plan for their exit. The Twins had a surplus of arms a season ago who deserved spots on the big league rotation. Chris Paddack and Louie Varland flashed potential down the stretch, and prospects like David Festa were on the way. Plus, they added Anthony DeSclafani in the Jorge Polanco trade as depth.
Even if Minnesota’s high-end starting pitching talent weren’t as high, the unit’s overall strength would keep it close to the productivity of last season and make up for Gray’s loss in the aggregate.
All three of those options have largely fallen flat. Paddack, 28, was a veteran arm who came into the season fully healthy and was a trendy pick to make a meaningful impact in the rotation. However, Paddack has an up-and-down season with a 4.99 ERA, a 90.4 MPH average exit velocity, and a below-average 20.6 percent strikeout rate. He’s currently on the shelf with a right forearm strain.
Varland was another candidate who solidified himself in the major league rotation. He made four starts in April and finished with a 9.18 ERA in 16.2 innings, allowing a 92.3 MPH average exit velocity and 6 home runs. Since then, a couple of decent spot starts are all Varland has to show for the Twins because he’s spent the rest of the season in Triple-A St. Paul.
DeSclafani needed flexor tendon surgery and will likely never throw a pitch for the Twins.
There are always going to be risks with any free-agent contract. However, like most big contracts, the team is going for the here and now and is willing to deal with the fallout. The Twins were coming off their best postseason run in 20 years. Even if some age regression were to take place, it wouldn’t happen in 2024.
Gray is currently tied for fourth in the senior circuit with 168 strikeouts. His 3.91 ERA isn’t as good as last year, but still manageable. A potential playoff rotation of López, Gray, and Bailey Ober could have been one of the best postseason trios. Instead, the Twins are breaking two rookies, David Festa and Zebby Matthews, into their starting rotation. They may need to start Simeon Woods Richardson in the playoffs, and he entered this season with 9.2 career innings thrown in the big leagues.
It was inevitable, but Minnesota’s rotation got worse without Gray once he left. Having him in the rotation could have been the difference between a division title (and a first-round bye) and fighting it out with the AL East runner-up on the road in the Wild Card Series.
Where the Twins were right…
Minnesota got great value with Gray. For the price of 2021 first-round pick Chase Petty, the Twins turned that 18-year-old prospect into one of the most established starters in baseball.
Gray had a rejuvenating two-year run in Minnesota, with a 2.90 ERA and 8.89 K/9. He made 56 starts for the Twins, only allowing 19 home runs in 303.2 innings. Last year, he made the All-Star team and didn’t miss a start. Gray also only allowed 8 home runs and led the league with a 2.83 ERA.
It’s hard to see Gray being more productive over that span. The 2023 Cy Young runner-up declined Minnesota’s qualifying offer and signed with St. Louis. Major League Baseball rewarded the Twins for losing their starting pitcher with a last first-round draft pick in 2024. Given that they traded Petty and got a 2024 first-rounder, Minnesota got a 143 ERA+ (league average is 100) and a 7.8 bWAR pitcher for basically nothing.
Whether due to payroll cuts or front-office foresight, the Twins hesitated to give a 34-year-old starting pitcher who hadn’t thrown 184 innings since 2015 a 3-year deal – let alone for $75 million. The Twins desperately could have used Gray’s consistency in the rotation throughout the season, especially now. On the other hand, Gray is not the same pitcher for the Cardinals that he was for the Twins.
Gray’s counting stats indicate that he’s having a good season. However, his underlying metrics offer more context. Gray’s strikeouts may be up, but his opponents hit him harder when he’s not generating swings and misses. They’re also more likely to put the ball in the air with an 89.6 MPH average exit velocity and a 10.7-degree average launch angle. Gray’s 18 home runs allowed this season are already twice as many as a year ago, and he’s on pace to top his career-worst 19 home runs allowed in 2021.
Since the All-Star Break, Gray has a 5.50 ERA, a 5.00 FIP, an 89.9 MPH average exit velocity, and a .310 batting average on balls in play. Worse yet, he’s allowed 10 of the 18 home runs he’s allowed all season in that six-start span. His four-seam fastball has gone from a +5 run value in 2023 to a -5 value this season. Worse yet, his sweeper, which had a +19 run value in 2023, has just a +3 pitch rating this season.
Gray is far from being a productive big-league pitcher. Still, those numbers show a concerning trend that would likely continue through the next two seasons, especially when he’s making $25 million or more each year.
Letting Sonny Gray walk in free agency is still a touchy subject for Twins fans, and for good reason, considering the current state of the starting rotation. In the here and now, not having Gray on this team hurts them down the stretch. On the other hand, in 2025 and 2026, Gray could weigh down the unit with his production as he ages. Payroll cuts or not, he would have taken up a significant chunk of the team’s payroll.
Therefore, no matter what side you choose, you’re probably right.
