Humor me for a minute.
What would happen if the Minnesota Twins baseball operations department just didn’t cut payroll this off-season?
Yes, it has been well-established that the club’s ownership has vowed not to cut payroll further in 2025. However, they are unlikely to add to their figure from this season, which totaled roughly $130 million. And with built-in pay bumps kicking in for players such as Pablo López and a small army of arbitration-eligible players, Minnesota’s current projection sits about $10 million over their target figure.
The notion for a team like the Twins – with realistic expectations to contend in 2025 after a demoralizing late-season collapse – should be to make the team better over the winter. That doesn’t mean that there aren’t limitations, especially when it comes to major financial commitments. However, if the goal is to make the team worse to balance the pocketbook, it says a lot about the organization’s health.
So I’m asking this for my own amusement, but also with some genuine curiosity.
What would happen if Derek Falvey and his cohorts ignored the directive to reduce the payroll to $130 million?
To be clear, I’m not writing some fan fiction here where Falvey gets summoned to the owner’s office like a delinquent teenager gets called into the principal’s office. I don’t see the club’s president putting his feet up on Joe Pohlad’s desk while he flips a toothpick in his mouth like a defiant punk. There isn’t supposed to be some stick it to the man twinge to this hypothetical.
But I genuinely wonder what would happen in a more realistic scenario in which Falvey reasonably concludes that dumping $10 million in salary will not improve the 2025 club and will not affect the organization’s long-term well-being.
For the record, I think there is a way to shed some salary while not fully kneecapping the club’s chances to compete.
- The Twins owe Christian Vazquez $10 million; his production over the last two campaigns has been spotty.
- Chris Paddack will make roughly $7.5 million, and based on the price of pitching in this winter’s free-agent market, he could be sought after by clubs looking for veteran rotation help.
- Minnesota could also move someone like Willi Castro based on his $6 million-plus price tag and the replacement options knocking on the door behind him.
- And they’re unlikely to trade superstar shortstop Carlos Correa, but they’ve listened to offers.
But just for kicks, what would ownership do if Falvey said he needed $140 million to build a competitive team next year?
Do the Pohlads fire the man they’re promoting to team president and will be at the head of both vital tables within the Twins organization?
I’d say that outcome would be cataclysmic for an ownership group exploring the sale of their ballclub, and the ramifications would cost more than $10 million.
So much of Falvey’s promotion to President of Business and Baseball Operations (lovably referred to as POBABO going forward) was to expedite their long-term plan before a potential sale of the club. Having him as the figurehead is a good starting point for new ownership, whether they keep him in that role or bring in their selection shortly after. Regardless, they’d need somebody in place during the transition, and Falvey is a well-respected executive who has maintained a competitive ballclub over the last eight years.
Suppose he isn’t willing or able to shed this salary while continuing to build a competitive team. Wouldn’t his dismissal be another black eye on an organization with its fair share of bruises in the last calendar year?
Again, I’m not arguing that Falvey should start a front-office revolution against ownership. For all I know, the two sides have an excellent working relationship. They might even agree they should move the contracts above while they still have value.
But a move for the sole sake of ridding the team of the money owed will be a jagged pill for many to swallow if it doesn’t immediately improve the club on paper. Aside from Correa, none of the other candidates would return very much, and they can’t add impact players in free agency.
So, I’m genuinely asking. What happens after opening day if the current roster and payroll projection remain intact?
