The Minnesota Twins placed All-Star shortstop Carlos Correa on the injured list last month due to a strained right rib cage muscle. It was only April 13, but it was a big blow for the 4-7 Twins. Not only did they lose one of their best players, but Correa was having his best start in a Twins uniform.
Correa slashed .306/.432/.444 with one home run and a 160 wRC+ (league average is 100) over his first 11 games. His 90 MPH average exit velocity sat well above the 88.1 MPH league average in that span, and he was still making plays in the field that only Correa could. It was a significant change from his first two seasons in Minnesota. During his first 11 games each of the last two years, Correa had a 71 wRC+ in 2022 and a 98 wRC+ in 2023. During his career, Correa owns a .785 OPS in March/April. August is the only month he’s been worse in his career, with a .770 OPS.
“What sucks the most,” Correa told The Athletic on April 14, “is that this is the first April in my career that I’ve felt good.”
Correa has returned from the injured list, but it’s taken him a few games to get back on track with a 2 for 12 stretch in his first 3 games off the IL. From then on, Correa has been producing a .837 OPS and a 136 wRC+ over the next 4 games. The Twins have seen enough highlights and clutch plays from Correa to know he is good. However, it feels like Twins Territory is finally seeing the Carlos Correa they’ve been waiting to see since he signed with the team two years ago.
Overall this season, Correa has a .279/.392/.393 slash line, with a 133 wRC+ clip and 2 home runs over 18 total games in 2024. His 90.4 MPH average exit velocity this year is one positive underlying stat to take away from his performance. He’s on pace to have one of the best in his career, with only 2017 (90.5 MPH) and 2016 (91 MPH) could top.
Correa’s inability to hit fastballs consistently was one of the biggest knocks against him in 2023. Last season, he had a -4 pitch rating against the 4-seamer. In 2024, he boosted his rating back to +1 against the heater. The other significant improvement has been the slider. The pitch has done the most damage against it with a +6 rating, up from -1 a year ago.
Correa has always been able to give the Twins stretches of great play. He recorded a 1.001 OPS and an 184 wRC+ in last year’s playoffs. From September 1 on in 2022, Correa was the best hitter in baseball with 7 home runs and a 188 wRC+ in 31 games that season. However, when it was low, it really dipped for Minnesota’s highest-paid player. Correa notched just a 92 wRC+ in the first half of 2023. Instead of the highs and lows, Correa has leveled out to become a more consistent hitter in Minnesota.
There are many ways to quantify Correa’s improvement. However, there are some meaningful qualifiers behind his success.
First, Correa has been healthy. He missed time with the rib injury, and it’s taken him some time to recover. However, it hasn’t appeared to linger. Correa has been relatively healthy as a Twin in terms of games played, with 136 games in 2022 and 135 in 2023. However, plantar fasciitis in his left foot impacted his performance.
Because he’s healthy, Correa is comfortable enough to take long at-bats because he has the stamina to face multiple pitches. In 2023, Correa had a 3.90 pitches/plate appearance clip, just below the 3.91 league average. Correa averages 4.24 pitches per plate appearance this year. One of the prime examples comes from Monday’s game against the Seattle Mariners. He faced Luis Castillo, fought off multiple pitches with two strikes, and hammered a go-ahead double off the wall. It was an at-bat that felt impossible for Correa a year ago.
Correa set a Twins record for most double plays grounded into in a season. Now he’s sprinting at 27.0 feet per second, his career average. Last year, he ran at 26.6 feet per second, a career-worst. Even if Correa is never considered a big base-stealing threat, avoiding double plays and extra outs boosts his value to Minnesota. Fewer double plays will also be positively reflected in his 0.79 WPA in just 18 games than the minus-2.5 WPA Correa earned in 2023, partially due to his record-high double play numbers.
Besides health, Correa had another mental battle to overcome in 2022. First, everyone had to deal with the lockout over that winter and the compressed season with fewer off-days and scheduled doubleheaders. Correa went through the lockout without a contract and signed the “reset” deal with Minnesota.
The Twins paid Correa $200 million to be a franchise player, so those factors don’t completely excuse his drop in production. Still, the most straightforward answer is often the most correct. Correa is as healthy as ever and in the right space to compete every game. It comes at a much-needed time, with Correa returning to the team just days before Byron Buxton would end up on the IL with right knee inflammation. Star power doesn’t mean everything in baseball. However, having a healthy and productive Correa makes up for most of the sting of Buxton’s IL stint.
Correa has also been productive without hitting for power. He can generate some good exit velocity but still hasn’t been able to barrel up the baseball. Instead, he primarily hits more line drives across the field. Correa’s 6.5 percent barrel rate this season sits just below the 6.9 percent league average clip and well below his 9.2 percent career mark for the stat.
Additionally, his average launch angle is 8.6, the lowest since his rookie year in 2015. Therefore, it’s easy to deduce why he isn’t hitting home runs. Correa’s home run numbers should bump up as the summer approaches, but seeing him be so productive without the big home run totals is interesting.
Carlos Correa has proven his worth to the Twins over the last couple of seasons as a leader in the clubhouse and a big-time performer. Underneath those great flashes of play on the field were stretches of poor production at the plate. Correa has a long-term contract secured, and healthy legs seem to have him producing the regular-season consistency that he showed in Houston. He punishes mistakes, takes good at-bats, and uses the entire field. It looks like the Carlos Correa everyone envisioned when he first signed in Minnesota.
