Say what you want about the reputation of the AL Central, but every team found a way to make headlines in 2024. The division went from being a punching bag in years past to the most competitive division in baseball. Four out of the five teams in the AL Central finished with a winning record. Three playoff teams came out of the division – the Cleveland Guardians, the Kansas City Royals, and the Detroit Tigers.
The Twins made headlines for their epic collapse down the stretch in the final six weeks of the season. The 121-loss Chicago White Sox became one of the worst teams in the sport’s history. However, even as all of the AL Central teams have been eliminated from postseason contention, this division has meaningfully rehabilitated its image.
In years past, the AL Central felt like a one-bid conference for the postseason. The one team that reached the playoffs was often the only one with more than 84 wins. From 2015 to 2023, four of those nine seasons had the division champion being the only AL Central team with a winning record.
Last year was fascinating not just because three AL Central teams made the dance but because it felt like a change in the status quo. Cleveland, Kansas City, and Detroit all won a playoff series and don’t appear to be going away anytime soon.
Minnesota has also reached the postseason recently. In March, FanGraphs projected the Twins to reach 86 wins after a playoff appearance in 2023. When most offseasons wrap up, Minnesota usually hovers around the mid-80s for preseason win expectations. For most years, the Twins have been able to model that way because of the division’s poor competition in recent history.
However, the AL Central looks as strong as ever. Therefore, the Twins must raise their standards this winter to avoid falling behind.
The Kansas City Royals went from losing 106 games in 2023 to winning 86 in 2024. Bobby Witt Jr. is the best player in the division and will only get better as he soars into his prime. Last winter, the Royals spent an unprecedented $110 million in offseason signings, including 2024 All-Star Seth Lugo. Kansas City’s 25th-ranked farm system, according to MLB.com, will prevent them from adding team-controlled talent. Still, after last season, it’s hard to see the Royals take their foot off the gas for 2025.
Detroit rallied late in the season, producing a 25-12 record since August 18 to pass the Twins for the final Wild Card spot. The Tigers have some money wrapped up in big contracts like Javier Baez‘s, but they have largely built their team on the back of their young prospects.
A sixth-ranked farm system and renewed optimism should see the Tigers be more aggressive in reshaping their 2025 roster. Cleveland also boasts a fourth-ranked prospect list and can always be expected to be near the top of the division by October.
In the free-falling final weeks of the 2024 season, Twins fans rightfully critiqued ownership, the front office and coaching staff, and the play on the field. No matter how bleak it looked at Target Field, Twins fans can take solace in the fact that the situation on the south side of Chicago is much worse than anything taking place in the Twin Cities at the moment.
The AL Central is as highly regarded as it’s been in about a decade. The Twins can’t just get by on being the best of five underwhelming options; they have to become a legitimate contender. Preseason win projections are just that: projections. However, whatever win total the team expected it needed to reach to win the AL Central in 2024 should be raised by at least a few more games come next spring.
Given that ownership is in the process of selling the franchise and committed to keeping last year’s payroll cap, the franchise is already limited in how it can raise its internal projections internally. The Twins could take a couple of approaches to lift their ceiling for 2025.
The first option feels the most likely at this point in the offseason. It involves running back most of the 2024 roster’s main core and banking on positive regression. Carlos Correa staying healthy, Buxton putting up a season like he did in 2024, and a more consistent Pablo Lopez throughout the season would give the Twins some star power. Royce Lewis must rebound from a sophomore slump, and they must give Brooks Lee a runway into playing time while healthy would all bode well for Minnesota next year.
It’s a risky option, considering how many different players they will ask to produce a noticeable jump from the previous season. Some top prospects, Luke Keaschall (Minnesota’s No. 3 prospect) and Emmanuel Rodriguez (No. 2 prospect), could help out along the way. But relying on rookies, despite their prospect status, to add a considerable amount of extra wins isn’t a sustainable practice either. The Tigers have seen that in the volatility of their young top prospects over the last three seasons.
A different path would be to trade away a significant piece of the Twins 2024 core to shake up the roster. The Twins are almost at their spending limit when factoring in service time raises for Joe Ryan, Ryan Jeffers, and others. It’s still just as risky as running everything back, but it has the chance to inject some new life into a team that needs a boost. The 2022 Twins collapse followed an offseason where the Twins traded a core piece in Luis Arraez and got an ace in Pablo López in return.
Better competition in the division shouldn’t upset Twins fans. Minnesota’s roster is too good not to compete, and better teams in the division will motivate them to continue improving the squad. The 2023 Twins were a good and fun team. Still, their flaws were evident when they tried to get past the ALDS.
It’s not to take away from what that team did. However, because every other team in the division finished with a losing record, there was no real incentive to solidify things because a playoff berth was handed to them. A better division will hopefully spur the front office to continue going all-out to make the Twins great instead of just good enough to win the AL Central.
The AL Central finally broke the stigma of being known nationally as the worst division in baseball. It will be a figurative (and potentially literal) arms race to restock their rosters for next season. The Twins don’t need to overhaul their offseason plans. However, they need to put together a team projected to win more games than in years past.
