The Minnesota Twins made stealing bases more of a priority last season. Thanks to Major League Baseball’s new rules featuring bigger bases and limited pick-off attempts, baseball saw 3,505 stolen bases in 2023 when there were just 2,483 stolen bases in the 2022 season.
Minnesota hired Rocco Baldelli away from the Tampa Bay Rays in 2019. Tampa has 485 stolen bases since 2019, top four in the league. However, Minnesota has stolen a league-worst 220 bases in that span.
The decision to limit base stealing attempts didn’t seem like a philosophical decision but more of a pragmatic one. The Twins have been one of the slowest teams in baseball over the last half-decade. Since 2019, Minnesota has been unable to crack the top 18 in terms of team sprint speed. They were in the top 20 only in 2022 (19th). Just six players have over 10 steals since Baldelli took over the top step of the Twins dugout.
Minnesota was 29th in baseball with 37 steals through the first 81 games of the season. In the remaining 81 games, the Twins had 49 stolen bases, 19th in baseball. Increases in stolen bases came as Baldelli leaned into the new rules and his small number of quick runners. He unleashed Willi Castro in a super-utility role, and Castro had a team-leading 33 stolen bases in 2023. Michael A. Taylor was second with 13 stolen bases. It wasn’t a huge jump, but going from the bottom of the league to hovering at league average is about as good as you could have received from last year’s Twins.
But they should be able to keep that second-half production from their ground game next season. They lost Nick Gordon and Jorge Polanco, which could soften expectations. But Joey Gallo and Donovan Solano were two of Minnesota’s slowest runners last season, and they aren’t returning in 2024. Jose Miranda will likely start the season in Triple-A, and Lewis will take his place. Also, Byron Buxton appears to be the healthiest he’s been in years.
At 36th overall in sprint speed last season, Buxton is still one of the fastest runners in baseball. However, his power has increased from a .672 OPS in his first four seasons to an .840 OPS since 2019. As a result of Buxton’s increase in power, he relied less on the single-and-steal approach. But stolen bases have still been a big part of Buxton’s game, with 86 career stolen bases and 40 stolen bases since 2019.
Injuries limited Buxton to nine stolen bases in only 85 games last year. The Twins could still be cautious with Buxton’s stolen base attempts, especially if his extra-base hitting returns. A healthy Buxton isn’t a guarantee. But the more he’s on the field, the more Minnesota is running.
Even if Buxton doesn’t need to steal as much because he can get extra bases with his bat, other players must rely more on their speed. Willi Castro is coming off a breakout season in 2023. As the late-inning speed option off the bench, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Castro lead the team in steals in 2024.
Manuel Margot had a 28.3 ft./second sprint speed last year, which would have slotted him as a top-five Twins runner a year ago. Margot’s steal numbers never look incredibly high, including the nine stolen bases he had in 2023. But that’s more because he is a platoon outfielder who doesn’t get as many opportunities.
Edouard Julien could see an increase in stolen base attempts during his second big league season. Hamstring issues are partially responsible for Julien swiping only three bases in 2023 on a 27.0 ft./second sprint speed. Julien still doesn’t have blazing speed, but he had 19 stolen bases for Double-A Wichita in 2022. A full season of consistent playing time likely means Julien’s stolen base totals look closer to his 2022 season than 2023.
Royce Lewis may end up in the same camp as Buxton. He possesses speed, but this is his first full season after back-to-back ACL tears briefly stalled his big-league career. Lewis still had a 28.2 ft./second sprint speed, which was top five on the Twins roster last season. Over five seasons of minor league ball, Lewis has 85 stolen bases. The potential for a monster stolen base season is there. However, previous knee and hamstring injuries may cause the Twins to pump the breaks on Lewis being an aggressive base stealer.
A handful of prospects could also enter the mix to supplement the baserunning game. Austin Martin will likely find his way to Target Field in 2024. Regardless of whichever role the Twins ask him to fill defensively, they will use him on the basepaths. Martin stole 19 bases between both Single-A affiliates and in Triple-A last year while only playing in just 67 games. A more slashing singles hitter like Martin can aggregate bases through the ground game in Minnesota.
There are other players who can chip in to swipe bags for the Twins. Brooks Lee doesn’t have high stolen base numbers in the high minors, but he could steal 5-10 bases through a season. Niko Goodrum could be Castro-lite as a late-inning base stealer if he works his way to the majors. Max Kepler isn’t as adept on the base paths as he was earlier in his career, but he’s also capable of getting going in the run game.
Stealing bases doesn’t always equate to winning. The Kansas City Royals have stolen more bases than any other team since 2019 (557). However, the Twins leaned into the running game more as the 2023 season progressed, helping an offense that had a 22nd-ranked .706 OPS before the All-Star Break last year. The Twins aren’t going to be the fastest team in baseball, but it feels like Baldelli has more buttons to push. Even league-average stolen base numbers will allow Baldelli an extra advantage in high-leverage situations in 2024.
Base stealing was becoming a lost art for Twins baseball. But the league has made rule changes to encourage teams to swipe bags. Another year under the new rules should give Minnesota more data on using that to their advantage. The Twins might not be built for speed top-to-bottom, but they have enough guys on the roster to make the basepaths interesting in 2024.
